台湾海峡灯光围网渔船的技术经济分析

本文系根据1980～1989年福建省在台湾海峡生产的48组具有代表性的标本船之技术经济资料,以柯布·道格拉斯生产函数和经济指标评析其生产状况及技术经济效果。结果表明,近年来,福建省灯光围网渔船的宏观技术水平已明显提高;然而因其捕捞努力量大幅度增加,单位捕捞努力量渔获量曲线呈抛物线状,其长期趋势为CPUE=-0.311+0.9032f-0.06397f~2;预测投资在功率范围为147～294kW的灯光圈网渔船在台湾海峡生产可望受益。     

Some observational results of sea storm current

INTRODUCTIONDr. Hollister, a marine geologist of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, firstpointed out that there was ocean storm current in the ocean. He found out the wavy texture inthe seabed core samples, and suggested that this wavy texture was caused by the high speedsea current in remote antiquity. He then suggested a bold hypothesis that there existed a benthic storm current near the ocean bottom, and presented this hypothesis at the IUGG confer-ence held at San Francisco…     

Extreme climate events,migration for cultivation and policies:A case study in the early Qing Dynasty of China

Based on the historical records of the annual increase in the workforce (men older than 16 years of age), the annual new taxed cropland in the Shengjing area (Northeast China), the extreme climate events in North China, and related management policies in Northeast China during 1661―1680, a case study has been conducted to investigate the relationship between the extreme climate events in North China and the migration to Northeast China for cultivation. This study has found that the migration to Northeast China for cultivation from 1661 to 1680 was a response to the drought events that occurred in North China. The upsurge of migration, which occurred in 1665―1680, was a response to the drought period during 1664―1680 in North China while the fewer disasters period in Northeast China. There were three migratory peaks during the upsurge of migration, which corresponded to the three drought events. The peaks of migration, however, often lagged behind the drought events about 1―2 years. The encourag-ing-migration policy, which was adopted to encourage cultivation in Northeast China, did not produce much migration into the region in the early Qing Dynasty. It did, however, provide a policy background, which ensured more than 10000 migrants per year to Northeast China when North China suffered from drought/flood disasters. As a response to the highest peak of migration induced by the severe droughts in North China during 1664―1667, a prohibiting-migration policy restricted further migration to Northeast China was carried out in 1668. Although the prohibiting-migration policy could not entirely stop the migrants fleeing from famine in North China to Northeast China, the migrants and cultivation were significantly reduced under the policy. The frequent changes of the policy on the years when taxation started after the land was cultivated were also related to climate events. The extreme climate events in North China, migration to Northeast China for cultivation, and the related management poli-cies showed an impact-response chain, which reflected the interaction among extreme climate events, human behavior, and policies.     

一次台风后部中尺度暴雨的动力机制分析与模拟试验

利用常规气象资料、区域自动站资料和1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料,对1209"苏拉"台风后部暴雨的动力机制进行分析,并用WRF模式进行地形模拟数值试验,结果表明:"苏拉"后部暴雨具有明显的中尺度特征,低层流场的汇合促进暴雨区上升运动的发展,超低空偏南风急流为暴雨区提供充足的水汽条件,急流在强降水发生前增强北推;陆地摩擦使近岸一带生成风速辐合线(岸风锋)是触发暴雨的中尺度系统,其强弱对暴雨强度有直接影响。     

华南沿海海平面的变化速率

应用回归分析和切比雪夫拟合二种方法，根据验潮资料研究了华南沿海海平面的变化速率，进而结合区域研究近２０年来华南海平面的变化特征，并讨论了将其用于地震趋势分析的可能性。     

Copula entropy coupled with artificial neural network for rainfall–runoff simulation

The rainfall–runoff relationship is not only nonlinear and complex but also difficult to model. Artificial neural network (ANN), as a data-driven technique, has gained significant attention in recent years and has been shown to be an efficient alternative to traditional methods for hydrological modeling. However, for different input combinations, ANN models can yield different results. Therefore, input variables and ANN types need to be carefully considered, when using an ANN model for stream flow forecasting. This study proposes the copula-entropy (CE) theory to identify the inputs of an ANN model. The CE theory permits to calculate mutual information (MI) and partial MI directly which avoids calculating the marginal and joint probability distributions. Three different ANN models, namely multi-layer feed (MLF) forward networks, radial basis function networks and general regression neural network, were applied to predict stream flow of Jinsha River, China. Results showed that the inputs selected by the CE method were better than those by the traditional linear correlation analysis, and the MLF ANN model with the inputs selected by CE method obtained the best predicted results for the Jinsha River at Pingshan gauging station.     

钢筋混凝土框架结构直接基于位移的抗震设计

直接基于位移的抗震设计方法是对基于力的抗震设计方法的重大改进。按此方法进行设计时,需要解决的关键问题是确定结构的目标位移和相应的侧移模式。提出用框架梁节点截面屈服时的位移作为目标位移,并推导了层间屈服位移的计算公式;然后用结构近似的第一振型曲线作勾其侧移模式,对层间屈服位移进行修正。算例表明,本方法计算结果合理。     

全球环境变化与人体健康

以全球增暖为标志的全球环境变化已经出现。这一变化对人体健康和人类社会的生存和未来发展将产生极为重大的影响。人类自身活动是引起全球环境变化的一个最为活跃的因子。但是,对人类活动,包括个人和社会集体行为,对全球环境变化的影响和机制,全球环境变化又是怎样反作用于人类社会,以及人类如何适应未来全球环境变化等问题研究甚少。由于人体健康直接关系到每个人,“环境变化与人体健康问题”应该作为全球环境变化研究中的研究核心之一,应加强社会科学界、环境科学界和医学界之间的合作研究。同时,应积极开展国际合作,加大研究成果的宣传力度,增强全民环保意识。       

Quality evaluation and calibration of the SWIM significant wave height product with buoy data

The significant wave height (SWH) is one of the main parameters that describe wave characteristics and is widely used in wave research fields. Wave parameters measured by radar are influenced by the offshore distance and sea state. Validation and calibration are of great significance for radar data applications. The nadir beam of surface wave investigation and monitoring (SWIM) detects the global-ocean-surface SWH. To determine the product quality of SWIM SWH, this paper carried out time-space matching between SWIM and buoy data. The data qualities were evaluated under different offshore distances and sea states. An improved calibration method was proposed based on sea state segmentation, which considered the distribution of the point collocation numbers in various sea states. The results indicate that (1) the SWIM SWH accuracy at offshore distances greater than 50 km is higher than that at distances less than 50 km, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.244 4 m, scatter index (SI) of 0.115 6 and relative error (RE) of 9.97% at distances greater than 50 km and those of 0.446 0 m, 0.223 0 and 18.66% at distances less than 50 km. (2) SWIM SWH qualities are better in moderate and rough sea states with RMSEs of 0.284 8 m and 0.316 9 m but are worse in slight and very rough sea states. (3) The effect of the improved calibration method is superior to the traditional method in each sea state and overall data, and the RMSE of SWIM SWH is reduced from the raw 0.313 5 m to 0.285 9 m by the traditional method and 0.198 2 m by the improved method. The influence of spatiotemporal window selection on data quality evaluation was analyzed in this paper. This paper provides references for SWIM SWH product applications.     

鱼类环境DNA metabarcoding片段的近缘物种识别差异

已知的鱼类环境DNA（eDNA）metabarcoding片段均未被针对性考察其对近缘物种的适用性,实际使用过程中存在“物种丢失”风险。为筛选出物种识别率最高的片段,本研究比较了15个主流片段对106属（共935种）鱼类的识别差异。研究结果如下：（1）蛋白质编码基因（COI,片段15）的物种识别率最高,但其引物通用性最差;片段09、片段11、片段07、片段03、片段12的引物序列总平均遗传距离也较大,均存在eDNA低效扩增的风险;（2）片段长度影响物种识别率,核糖体基因中片段05、片段06、片段01、片段02及片段13的物种识别率较高;（3）非度量多维尺度分析（NMDS）显示,不同基因、同一基因不同片段的识别结果存在较大差异,应考虑多片段、多基因组合应用;片段01与片段02、片段05与片段06等在NMDS图上距离较近,存在相互替代性;（4）物种类群影响识别结果,eDNA研究仍需要进一步开发高识别率片段。综合物种识别率、引物通用性、NMDS分析等多方面因素,本研究推荐2×150 bp测序平台使用片段01（MiFish-U）、2×250 bp测序平台使用片段05（Ac12S）,辅以片段13（Vert-16S-eDNA）等进行近缘鱼类多样性调查。本研究旨在为提高鱼类eDNA调查结果准确性提供一定技术支撑。