地图质量评判的数学模型

应用数学分析方法建立一个地图质量模糊评判的数学模型，并用上述模型对１２幅地形图编绘质量进行评判，所得结果令人满意。     

Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Abstract

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and plays a major role in flood mitigation, restoration and conservation of the ecological environment in the middle Yangtze River basin. Sediment load and streamflow variations in Poyang Lake basin are important for the scouring and deposition changes of this lake. However, these hydrological processes are heavily influenced by human activities, such as construction of water reservoirs, and land-use/land cover changes. By thorough analysis of long series of sediment and streamflow obtained from five major hydrological stations, we systematically investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of these hydrological processes and the hydrological responses to human activities using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the double cumulative mass curve and the linear regression method. The results show: (1) no significant change in streamflow followed by an increasing tendency after the 1990s that turns to be decreasing about 2000; and (2) a sharp increase of sediment load during the late 1960s and 1970s triggered by extensive deforestation (during the “Cultural Revolution” in China) followed by a tendency to decrease after the early 1980s. Construction of water reservoirs has greatly reduced the sediment load of the Poyang Lake basin, and this is particularly the case in the Ganjiang River, where the sediment load changes may be attributed to the trapping effects of the Wan'an Reservoir, the largest water reservoir within the Poyang Lake basin. There is no evidence to corroborate the influence of water reservoirs on the streamflow variations. It seems that the streamflow variations are subject mainly to precipitation changes, but this requires further analysis. The current study may be of scientific and practical benefit in the conservation and restoration of Poyang Lake, as a kind of wetland, and also in flood mitigation in the middle Yangtze River basin that is under the influence of human activities.

Citation Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Jiang, T. & Chen, X.-H. (2011) Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological processes and their hydrological responses to human activities in the Poyang Lake basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 305–318.     

Coupling mobile phone and social media data: a new approach to understanding urban functions and diurnal patterns

Understanding urban functions and their relationships with human activities has great implications for smart and sustainable urban development. In this study, we present a novel approach to uncovering urban functions by aggregating human activities inferred from mobile phone positioning and social media data. First, the homes and workplaces (of travelers) are estimated from mobile phone positioning data to annotate the activities conducted at these locations. The remaining activities (such as shopping, schooling, transportation, recreation and entertainment) are labeled using a hidden Markov model with social knowledge learned from social media check-in data over a lengthy period. By aggregating identified human activities, hourly urban functions are inferred, and the diurnal dynamics of those functions are revealed. An empirical analysis was conducted for the case of Shenzhen, China. The results indicate that the proposed approach can capture citywide dynamics of both human activities and urban functions. It also suggests that although many urban areas have been officially labeled with a single land-use type, they may provide different functions over time depending on the types and range of human activities. The study demonstrates that combining different data on human activities could yield an improved understanding of urban functions, which would benefit short-term urban decision-making and long-term urban policy making.     

Identification and assessment of heavy rainfall–induced disaster potentials in Taipei City

With increasing threat to lives and properties, identifying and assessing disaster potentials has become necessary and prior for effective disaster preparation and rescue planning. This study first introduces practical methods currently used in Taipei City, Taiwan, to identify and assess heavy rainfall–induced potential risks on flood, debris flow, and landslide. The identified disaster potential information is further applied to a series of deterministic and probabilistic risk analyses using Shilin District of Taipei City as a case study. The deterministic risk analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of various heavy rainfall intensities on the residents. The probabilistic risk analyses are performed to establish risk curves for the population affected by heavy rainfall–induced hazards. The risk curve represents the relationships between the affected population and the annual exceedance probability. This study found the annual exceedance probability is very sensitive to the assumed coefficients of variation of the affected population. It is recommended historical statistical data on the correlation between affected population and rainfall intensity should be recorded and compiled in order to assess the actual probability distribution function of the affected population. Risk analysis results are further applied to assess the community evacuation capacity in this district. Last, short-term and long-term mitigation strategies and recommendations are discussed.     

Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China

Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province.     

重力卫星的星载GPS精密定轨

利用CHAMP和GRACE卫星的实测数据,研究了重力卫星的精密定轨问题,并针对几何法精密定轨方法给出了一种有效的星载数据编辑策略;在PANDA软件的基础上,处理了101 d的实测数据;通过与不同机构卫星轨道的比较、激光测距观测值检验以及重力场模型恢复等外部检核的方式,分析了卫星轨道的精度。结果显示,本文的简化动力学轨道的精度为2~3 cm;几何学轨道的定轨精度为3~4 cm,适用于重力场模型的解算。     

基于优化背景值的MGM(1,m)模型在建筑物沉降监测中的应用

根据MGM(1,m)模型的基本建模原理,发现了模型背景值的构造形式对模型精度存在影响,从传统MGM(1,m)模型背景值构造形式的角度对其进行改造,重新构建灰色MGM(1,m)模型背景值。通过实例分析,改进后的灰色MGM(1,m)模型相较传统的MGM(1,m)模型,在精度方面有了很大的提高。     

Experimental study on the effects of the moisture content of bituminous coal on its gas seepage characteristics

Moisture content is the main factor affecting the occurrence and flow of gas in bituminous coal and restricts the gas permeability of the coal seam, which affects the effectiveness of gas extraction from the coal seam directly. In order to study the influence of moisture content on the gas seepage characteristics of bituminous coal, this paper focused on bituminous coal from the Xutuan coal mine and used a bespoke laboratory unit called a Gas Flow and Displacement Testing Apparatus (GFDTA). The moisture content of bituminous coal was measured, and the axial and radial gas seepage experiments of bituminous coal under different moisture content conditions were carried out. The average original moisture content (1.3%) and the average saturated moisture content (2.4%) of the bituminous coal sample were obtained. It was observed that, with the increase of time, the original moisture content of the coal decreased with a negative exponential function and the wetting moisture content increased with an Exponential Association function. The gas axial seepage experimental results showed that when the moisture content was lower, the coal adsorbed CH₄; when the moisture content was higher than M_ad, the two fields of gas and liquid are coupled and affect the axial flow of the CH₄, decreasing the moisture content. With higher moisture content, the interaction between the two is more readily evident and the diffusion behavior of the CH₄ has a greater impact on the moisture content. Axial and radial gas seepage experiments, under the same gas pressure, axial pressure, and confining pressure, revealed that with the increase of moisture content, the axial and radial permeability of bituminous coal first increased and then decreased. This phenomenon is analyzed by the water lock effect, the effects of sorption on gas seepage and moisture content on gas adsorption effects. Among them, critical moisture content of approximately 1% exists when the axial and confining pressures are loaded or unloaded at the same time as well as the axial pressure loading or unloading alone. However, the critical moisture content is about 0.5% under confining pressure loading or unloading alone. In addition, in radial seepage experiments, it was observed that the volumetric strain of the coal decreased with the increase in the moisture content.     

汉南古隆起周缘下寒武统(陕南地1井)发现海相页岩气

正1研究目的(Objective)近几年来随着我国页岩气勘探开发的不断推进,志留系五峰—龙马溪组页岩气在四川盆地已基本实现页岩气商业开发。而寒武系牛蹄塘组是另一套重要页岩层系,但由于构造活动强、整体热演化程度高,目前仅在威远、鄂西、城口等个别地区获得突破和发现。陕南地区寒武系牛蹄塘组页岩围绕汉南古隆起     

ＷＭＴ５２超声风传感器与ＥＬ１５Ａ风传感器野外探测资料对比分析

利用新疆阿克苏地区6个气象站1960年-2008年49年雷暴资料,对新疆阿克苏地区雷暴时空分布特征和变化规律进行了分析研究。结果表明：①雷暴日数75％以上都集中在夏季,持续期盆地谷地最长、沙漠边缘最短;地势较高的盆地谷地为雷暴的高发区,沙漠地带雷暴最少;②新疆阿克苏地区雷暴日数总体呈下降趋势,1990年-2008年累计距平均为-50．9d,沙漠边缘雷暴年代波动最大;③各测站年雷暴日数下降趋势在-1．05d／10a—-3．0d,10a,1990年代开始下降趋势加大,乌什、阿拉尔下降趋势较大,分别为-16．86d／10a和-8．4d／10a,相当于每10年减少34．5％和46．4％。夏季变化幅度较小,1990年-2008年乌什、阿拉尔倾向率分别为-4．64d／10a和-2．24d／10a,相当于每10年减少9．5％和12．4％。