Impacts of Multigrid NLS-4DVar-based Doppler Radar Observation Assimilation on Numerical Simulations of Landfalling Typhoon Haikui (2012)

We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar) method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012) using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Observation data included radial velocity(V_r) and reflectivity(Z) data from a single Doppler radar, quality controlled prior to assimilation. Typhoon prediction results were evaluated and compared between the NLS-4DVar and MG-NLS4DVar methods. Compared with a forecast that began with NCEP analysis data, our radar data assimilation results were clearly improved in terms of structure, intensity, track, and precipitation prediction for Typhoon Haikui(2012). The results showed that the assimilation accuracy of the NLS-4DVar method was similar to that of the MG-NLS4DVar method,but that the latter was more efficient. The assimilation of V_r alone and Z alone each improved predictions of typhoon intensity, track, and precipitation; however, the impacts of V_r data were significantly greater that those of Z data.Assimilation window-length sensitivity experiments showed that a 6-h assimilation window with 30-min assimilation intervals produced slightly better results than either a 3-h assimilation window with 15-min assimilation intervals or a 1-h assimilation window with 6-min assimilation intervals.     

Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

Climate Dynamics - Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate system....     

油菜花期物候主要限制因子分析及预报模型的构建

以油菜开花开始时间(即始花期)为研究对象,利用1980—2016年江苏省油菜发育期观测资料和同步气象数据,分析油菜始花期的时空变化趋势。结合油菜生理特性,筛选与油菜始花期显著相关的气象因子。以高淳站为例,采用通径分析明确各气象因子对油菜始花期的作用并评估因子敏感性,最后构建油菜始花期的回归预报模型。结果表明:在气候变化背景下江苏地区油菜始花期呈逐年提前趋势,淮河以南地区平均提前3 d以上;上年日平均气温稳定通过0℃终日(X_1)、当年日平均气温稳定通过5℃初日(X_2)、现蕾至开花前时段内分别大于0℃、5℃和10℃的有效积温(X_1、X_4和X_5)、最低气温分别小于0和5℃的日数(X_6和X_7)及平均最低气温(X_8)等8个因子与油菜始花期相关性达极显著水平;其中2月上旬至3月上旬的平均最低气温(X_8)、日最低气温小于5℃日数(X_7)、大于5℃有效积温(X_4)对油菜始花期的直接影响位列8个因子的前三位,且这3个因子两两共同对油菜始花期的相对影响程度也排在各因子对回归方程R~2总贡献率的前三位;其余5个因子直接效应普遍小于间接效应,且它们主要通过X_4、X_7、X_8对油菜始花期产生影响,而X_4、X_7、X_8也通过这5个因子产生一定影响;去掉任何一个因子,都会引起其他某些因子对油菜始花期的直接、间接作用发生变化;基于这8个因子构建的回归模型可解释68.48%的油菜始花期变化,并具有区域适用性。因此,就江苏地区而言,光照和降水对油菜开花早晚影响较小,热量条件才是江苏油菜开花早晚的主要限制因子,所构建的始花期预报模型可较好反映油菜开花时间早晚与相关热量因子变化的规律。     

An Empirical Tropical Instability Wave-induced Wind Stress Model in the Equatorial Pacific and its Incorporation into the Ocean Model

Abstract

Satellite observations revealed that there is a close relationship between perturbations of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress (τ) induced by tropical instability waves (TIWs; SST_TIW and τ _TIW). Using the empirical relationship observed between TIW-induced wind stress divergence (curl) and downwind (crosswind) SST gradients, this study establishes a TIW-induced wind stress field perturbation model τ _TIW?=?F(SST). This empirical model solves τ _TIW from the TIW-induced wind stress divergence and curl, which are estimated from the downwind and crosswind SST gradients. This empirical τ _TIW?=?F(SST) model can be incorporated into the ocean model to take into account the effect of τ _TIW. By comparing two experiments with and without the τ _TIW effect, this study demonstrates that τ _TIW has a substantial effect on the equatorial Pacific heat budget and induces the long-term mean SST to exhibit a 0.2°C difference, which is consistent with previous studies.     

2011年宁夏川区一次高温天气分析

文章利用Micaps资料及数值预报产品,对2011年6月15日宁夏川区高温天气进行了分析,结果表明:此次高温天气主要影响系统是河西一带产生暖性高压东移形成河套高压。从低层到高层盛行暖平流是高温出现的直接因素,气流的上升下沉加快了暖流扩散。     

黄金新药源与豫西含金植物

黄金可以入药，历代本草均有记载。但因不溶性金被人体吸收极微，内服有一定毒性，加之其价格昂贵及一些药理学和比较复杂的检测处理与技术加工问题，不能普遍应用。自然界许多动植物都是聚金能手，特别是生长于富金岩石及金矿床风化土壤中的植物含金一般较高，部分动物因以含金植物为食，体内也含一定量的金，并且有些动植物本身就是中药材和食物。据此建议采取一定手段将含金较高、但未达工业品级的岩石，通过生物循环把金聚集至动、植物体内，金与动植物体内蛋白质等有机质结合成金的有机络合物，将此类动植物用于医疗或食疗，既可减小金的毒性，便于人体吸收，又可把未达工业品级的含金岩石利用起来。豫西某构造蚀变岩金矿，其上覆土壤中生长着含金植物，这些植物灰分中含金４×１０－９～９８×１０－９，其中以野苋菜的籽和叶灰分中含金最高（含金７５×１０－９～９８×１０－９），看来在本区用野苋菜籽和叶灰分中金含量进行找矿是可行的     

Estimating nutrient budgets in tropical estuaries subject to episodic flows

Most Australian estuaries are subject to riverine discharge regimes that are highly episodic. This characteristic poses difficulties for estimating nutrient budgets of such systems based on sampling regimes that do not resolve the discharge variation and the changes in nutrient distributions that they cause. This paper presents a method for calculating nutrient budgets in estuaries having episodic hydrology. The method utilises a simple hydrodynamic transport model that is calibrated using measured salinities and which is used to describe the transport properties of the estuary as they respond to river discharge. Using this transport model, the temporal variation in nutrient concentrations within the estuary can be resolved between sampling surveys even when the discharge events are of short duration. An inverse method is then applied to calculate internal fluxes of nutrients from measurements obtained on successive sampling surveys. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the Fitzroy Estuary in Queensland, Australia.     

Palynological record during the Pleistocene (between 1.05 Ma and 0.36 Ma) from ODP1144, northern South China Sea

This paper presents the pollen record from the lower section of ODP1144 (depth 501.3-225.7 m, ca. 1.05-0.36 Ma). Two pollen zones (PA and PB) and eleven pollen subzones are recognized. Within zone PB, the 11 pollen subzones (PB21-11) are defined according to the pine, fern and herb variations, and are equivalent to the marine isotope stages 21-11 (MISs 21-11). The interglacial periods are typified by an increase in pine pollen and fern spores, and a decrease in herbaceous pollen, while the patterning during the glacial periods is just the opposite. During the interglacial periods, pollen assemblages were dominated by pine similar to those of the present day, suggesting that the paleoenvironment of the interglacial periods was similar to that of the present day, whereas the glacial periods are marked by an increase in herbaceous pollen, mainly Gramineae and Cyperaceae, indicating that grassland covered the exposed continental shelf when sea level declined. Increased Artemisia percentages and the highest     

Geochemistry of the ophiolite and oceanic island basalt in the Kangxian-Pipasi-Nanping tectonic mélange zone,South Qinling and their tectonic significance

Detailed studies indicate that Kangxian-Pipasi-Nanping tectonic zone is a complicated mélange zone which includes many tectonic slabs of different origins. Ophiolite (MORB-type basalt), oceanic island tholeiite and alkaline basalt have been identified. Moreover, this tectonic mélange zone is eastward connected with the Mianlüe suture zone. The deformation characteristics, consisting components and volcanic rock geochemical features for the Kangxian-Pipasi-Nanping tectonic mélange zone are much similar to those of the Mianlüe suture zone and Deerni ophiolite. Therefore, the Kangxian-Pipasi-Nanping tectonic mélange zone should be the westward extension part of the Mianlüe suture zone. It indicates that the Mianlüe suture zone had extended to the Nanping area.     

近40年内蒙古候降水变化趋势

基于1964—2003年内蒙古44个站日降水量数据,进行了前20年 (1964—1983年)、后20年 (1984—2003年) 候降水变化的聚类分析,得到了最佳聚类数和各聚类的台站组成及其空间分布情况,对前20年和后20年候降水中值的变化情况、候最大降水量出现时间、各聚类的整体特征等进行了分析,并进行了候 (5 d) 和11 d降水中值极图的对比。结果表明:内蒙古不同地区的候降水变化格局存在经向地带性,但站点海拔的差异使这种地带性有所模糊;前、后两个20年候降水的变化格局较为复杂,大多数站点在一些候降水有显著变化,既有降水显著增加的候,也有降水显著减少的候;候最大降水出现的时间和量值有一定变化。