开发利用地理信息系统(GIS)综合分析地学信息进行矿产预测

众所周知,矿产资源预测是综合地学信息,进行优选靶区的有效手段之一。随着地学工作的深入和勘探技术的发展,已获取了大量的多源地学信息,如地质、地球物理、地球化学和遥感等资料。怎样从这众多的资料中提取有用信息进行综合分析,达到矿产资源预测的目的,一直是地学界探索的课题。过去,应用人工的方法来进行此项工作,不但费力、投资大,而且难以达到预期的效果,方法技术也不利于推广。如今,高速、高质量的计算机已趋于普及,使应用计算机技术高效地处理堆积如山的资料成为可能,尤其是近些年发展起来的地理信息系统(GIS),为综合处理地学资料的矿产资源预测的方法技术,开拓了广阔的前景。地理信息系统是一种计算机系统的应用软件,它集数据库管理和图像分析技术为一体,以空间数据迭加分析为重要特征。地学工作者进行矿产资源预测时,通常是从多源地学资料中提取有用信息,再应用专家知识,结合数学方法,如逻辑运算、贝叶斯(Bayes)规则等,建立预测模型,以模型的推理网格为线索,利用地理信息系统有效的空间分析手段,把各种证据图层综合迭加,最终产生以概率为指标的矿产资源预测图,高概率指示有利的矿产资源远景区,可作为勘探者和决策者进行勘查规划的依据。     

探地雷达技术及其应用和发展

作者对近年来探地雷达的技术发展及新的应用研究进行了概括和总结。在详细分析探地雷达方法原理、系统结构的基础上,提出了改进探地雷达系统结构的思路;同时,针对探地雷达工作中的高噪声和地震数据处理技术移植的不适应性,提出了探地雷达地下界面高分辨率成像的新方法。     

太白维山大型银矿床地质地球化学特征

太白维山大型银矿床为典型的中低温火山－次火山隐爆角砾岩型矿床，受岩性和断裂构造控制明显，矿体的产出部位和矿石品级与隐爆角砾岩关系密切。本文通过对基岩和１：２０万水系沉积物资料的分析与处理，得出基岩中主成矿元素组合为Ａｇ－Ｃｕ－Ｐｂ－Ａｓ－Ｓｂ－Ｚｎ，水系沉积物中主成矿元素组合为Ａｇ－Ｐｂ－Ｚｎ－Ｃｄ－Ｍｎ－Ｈｇ的结论，同时指出Ｐｂ可作为此矿床最重要的间接指示元素，而主成矿元素中各单元素异常浓集中心对银矿床的产出部位有很好的指示作用，为找矿的重要指标。     

中国区域经济差异变化的空间特征及其政策含义研究

采用了种省区人均国内生产总值与全国平均值的离差和比离两个指标，分别判断１９９０￣１９９５年我国区域经济绝对差异和相对差异变化的空间状态，并进一步阐明了其调控区域经济差异的政策含义。     

Relocation of the October 9, 1505 Earthquake with M63/4

There have been 12 possible locations of the earthquakes occurring in the South Yellow Sea since 1505.In this paper,the location of the earthquake that occurred in 1505 has been determined by the collection of more historical data of the influenced field,referring the isoseismal data of earthquakes with the epicentral intensityⅨ and combining geophysical field data with tectonic condition,due to its great influence on seismic safety assessment of some significant engineering.     

云南岩石圈热结构

本文探讨了云南深部热流及岩石圈地温分布的横向变化特征，并将岩石圈热结构概括为３种类型；典型现代构造活动区热结构，中间过渡型地质区热结构和稳定地质区热结构。最后，简单讨论了地热与地震活动的关系。     

成都粘土裂隙成因研究

根据成都粘土中裂隙特征与地质环境条件的分析，提出成都粘土中途中眩要裂隙类型的成因模式，上升剥蚀引起的垂向卸荷作用产生波状水平裂隙，冲沟切割引起的侧向卸荷作用，产生平行斜列隙裂。     

利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

Seismotectonic environment of occurring the February 3, 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, Yunnan Province

Lijiang-Daju fault, the seismogenic fault of the 1996 Lijiang M=7.0 earthquake, can be divided into Lijiang-Yuhu segment in the south and Yuhu-Daju segment in the north. The two segments show clear difference in geological tectonics, but have the similar dynamic features. Both normal dip-slip and sinistral strike-slip coexist on the fault plane. This kind of movement started at the beginning of the Quaternary (2.4～2.5 Ma B.P.). As to the tectonic types, the detachment fault with low angle was developed in the Early Pleistocene and the normal fault with high angle only after the Mid-Pleistocene (0.8 Ma B.P.). Based on the horizontal displacements of gullies and the vertical variance of planation surfaces cross the Lijiang-Daju fault at east piedmont of Yulong-Haba range, the average horizontal and vertical slip rates are calculated. They are 0.84 mm/a and 0.70 mm/a since the Quaternary and 1.56 mm/a and 1.69 mm/a since the Mid-Pleistocene. The movements of the nearly N-S-trending Lijiang-Daju fault are controlled not only by the regional stress field, but also by the variant movement between the Yulong-Haba range and Lijiang basin. The two kinds of dynamic processes form the characteristics of seismotectonic environment of occurring the 1996 Lijiang earthquake.     

Seepage driving effect on deformations of San Fernando dams

In the process of flow deformation of an earth dam, the seepage force inside the dam plays a role as a driving force. The seepage force acts just like the gravitational force in terms of pushing soils away from their original locations after liquefaction is triggered. This paper draws attention to this seepage driving effect by presenting a set of fully coupled finite element analyses on the well-known San Fernando dams, with the objective of evaluating the impact of this seepage effect. The results indicate that while this effect is always there, its practical significance depends on a number of factors. In the case of the upper San Fernando dam, which experienced a significant, but restricted, downstream movement during the 1971 earthquake, the seepage driving effect was indeed significant. On the contrary, for the lower dam, which failed and slid into the upstream reservoir during the same earthquake, this seepage effect was relatively less pronounced. The detailed results of the analyses reveal the likely mechanisms of failure and deformation of the two dams and the likely cause behind the difference between their responses during the earthquake.