Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

黔西地区煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性控制机制

基于黔西六盘水煤田和织纳煤田16口井36层次的试井资料, 采用地质统计分析等方法, 探讨了黔西地区煤储层渗透性的展布规律与地应力特征, 论证了煤层埋深与地应力对其渗透性的控制机制.研究表明, 研究区煤储层以特低渗-低渗透率储层(＜0.1×10-9m2)为主, 中渗透率储层(0.1×10-9~1.0×10-9m2)也占有相当大比例; 应力场类型在浅部表现为大地动力场型, 一定深度可能转化为准静水压力状态.煤储层渗透率及其埋深的负幂指数关系较为离散, 但在不同深度渗透率转折点与地应力场类型转变一致; 单井煤储层试井渗透率差异较大, 随地应力增大和埋深增加而降低, 平面展布受地应力强度控制由SW-NE具"低-高-低"发育规律.埋深对渗透率的控制实质是地应力的控制, 区域构造位置及其所处高应力场作用下的煤体形变与破碎致使孔裂隙压缩或闭合是该区渗透性差异的主要控制机制.      

柴北缘牦牛山地区牦牛山组沉积相组合特征

柴达木盆地北缘牦牛山地区出露的牦牛山组是一套由冲积扇和扇三角洲相共同构成的陆相沉积组合,冲积扇相砾岩-粗砂岩组合主要分布于研究区SE侧,扇三角洲相砂岩-泥岩组合主要分布于研究区NW侧。古水流分析表明牦牛山组沉积物主要来自其SE侧古隆起,但后期扇三角洲相包含少量来自NW和NE向的沉积物。该套沉积组合序列特征与区域上分布在牦牛山西侧同时期形成的湖泊相、滨浅海相沉积共同表明,柴达木盆地北缘在晚志留-早泥盆世时期存在一NW向倾斜的古斜坡,且晚期北侧发生抬升。砾岩和砂岩碎屑组成与区域岩石组合类型对比表明,牦牛山组沉积碎屑物主要来自于滩间山群。沉积组合序列特征、碎屑组成和区域构造背景综合研究表明,牦牛山组可能为柴达木板块向北俯冲过程中形成的局部断陷盆地的充填物。     

微波消解—冷原子荧光光谱法测定植物样品中的汞

为了简化测量植物中汞含量的方法,提高灵敏度及结果的可信度,实验采用微波消解植物样品的办法,使样品经氯化亚锡还原,再用冷原子荧光测定出植物样品中汞的含量。确定了消解样品的方法和微波消解样品的条件,优化了仪器的最佳工作参数。方法检出限0.30×10-9(稀释因子100倍),精密度(n=12)在2.09%~6.05%,加标回收率94.1%~105.5%,方法经生物国家一级标准物质验证方法准确可靠。     

顾及空间尺度效应的城市土地利用变化精细化模拟

城市土地利用变化模拟是优化土地资源配置的科学依据,提高其精细化程度和可靠性有助于准确把握城市用地发展趋势,对城市土地资源精准调控具有重要意义。基于宏观遥感分类的土地利用变化模拟,难以在街区尺度上揭示城市用地社会功能变化及精细化模拟中空间尺度效应来源和作用机理。本文联合遥感影像和POI数据识别出城市土地利用精细化特征,运用响应面法率定土地利用精细化模拟的最优空间尺度组合,在此基础上,利用CA-Markov模型开展了未来土地利用变化的精细化模拟。以武汉市中心城区为应用案例,研究结果表明：基于POI 的城市土地利用精细化识别方法,可以深度解析城市建设用地的社会功能,极大改善了传统基于遥感的土地覆被宏观解译效果;研究区土地利用变化元胞自动机精细化模拟的最优空间尺度组合是30 m元胞、7×7邻域以及冯诺依曼邻域类型,采用最优空间尺度组合能够提高土地利用变化精细化模拟的可靠性。响应面试验设计结果可有效识别精细化模拟过程中空间尺度效应的主要来源,并区分其对模拟精度的影响程度与正负效应;预计到2025年,研究区建设用地范围将继续向周边扩张,各类型用地之间互为交织,土地利用空间格局将呈更加破碎化趋势。     

河北省主要气象灾害时空变化的统计分析

根据1984~2011年河北省气象灾害统计数据和河北省气候影响评价资料,分析了河北省气象灾害灾次和灾情的时空分布特征。研究表明:河北省主要的气象灾害有暴雨洪涝、旱灾、雹灾、风灾和雷灾等5类,5类气象灾害存在明显的时空分布特征。河北省暴雨洪涝主要集中在河北省西北部,灾次比最大值0.038;冰雹灾情主要集中在张家口、承德以及位于太行山东麓的保定西部地区,灾次比最大值为0.027;干旱灾情主要集中在邯郸以及沧州南部,灾次比最大值为0.036;大风灾情主要集中在河北中部,高值中心在唐山北部,灾次比最大值为0.030;雷电灾情主要集中在秦皇岛、张家口以及石家庄,灾次比最大值为0.034。河北省暴雨日数分布与暴雨洪涝灾情分布的不一致表明气象灾害灾情除与致灾因子有关外,还与承灾体脆弱性密切相关。     

An Automated Approach for Land Cover Classification Based on a Fuzzy Supervised Learning Framework

This paper proposes an automatic framework for land cover classification. In majority of published work by various researchers so far, most of the methods need manually mark the label of land cover types. In the proposed framework, all the information, like land cover types and their features, is defined as prior knowledge achieved from land use maps, topographic data, texture data, vegetation’s growth cycle and field data. The land cover classification is treated as an automatically supervised learning procedure, which can be divided into automatic sample selection and fuzzy supervised classification. Once a series of features were extracted from multi-source datasets, spectral matching method is used to determine the degrees of membership of auto-selected pixels, which indicates the probability of the pixel to be distinguished as a specific land cover type. In order to make full use of this probability, a fuzzy support vector machine (SVM) classification method is used to handle samples with membership degrees. This method is applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data of two areas located in Northern China. The automatic classification results are compared with visual interpretation. Experimental results show that the proposed method classifies the remote sensing data with a competitive and stable accuracy, and demonstrate that an objective land cover classification result is achievable by combining several advanced machine learning methods.     

几种天绘一号卫星影像分割方法及质量评价

为寻求更适合天绘一号卫星影像的分割方法,文章采用均值偏移分割、分水岭分割、数学形态学分割、连通分量分割4种图像分割方法对天绘一号卫星影像进行分割实验,并从视觉和定量两方面对分割结果进行评估.结果表明:均值偏移方法的分割质量更佳,且分割结果更有利于提升后续处理的效率;几何形态较规则、质地较均一、复杂度较低的地物类型分割质量较高,反之则较低.     

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