水下机动目标轨迹跟踪的自适应估计方法

研究了用GPS测定基阵坐标,分析了水听器基阵所接收到的声脉冲信号的处理。通过模拟和实测数据的试算,证明了本文提出的模型及方法不但能处理多系统含有粗差的观测值,而且具有良好的跟踪处理机动目标的性能。     

结构性参数在黄土地基沉降计算中的应用研究

弦线模量法建立了考虑黄土基本物性指标及附加应力综合影响的弦线模量函数,应用分层总和法计算黄土地基的变形量,并在陕西关中黄土地区工程实践中获得良好的预测结果,而在分析兰州等其他黄土地区地基沉降时,结果出现偏差,究其原因,与计算中忽视了天然状态下黄土的结构性特征有关。以弦线模量法为基础,通过西安近郊4处土样试验和大量载荷试验资料,分析黄土的构度指标与压缩模量、孔隙比、含水量的关系,并将构度指标引入弦线模量表,深化结构性参数在地基沉降变形计算中的理论。     

Effect of catchment properties on runoff coefficient in a karst area of southwest China

Frequent human activities and climate change in the karst region of southwest China since the 1950s have led to the investigation of response of runoff to climate and catchment properties. Runoff coefficient (Rc) as an expression variable of the catchment response to rainfall is important to describe runoff dynamics and to estimate available streamflow for utilization. In this study, the equations of Rc associated with its attributors of climate condition and catchment property were derived using the Budyko framework. The equations were used to estimate relationship between the Rc and the attributors in the karst catchments in Guizhou province of southwest China. Analysis in the selected 23 karst catchments demonstrates that the spatial distribution of Rc is dominated by the catchment properties, such as the catchment properties of geology, slope and land use and land cover, rather than climate condition of drought index. Correlation analysis indicates that the catchment with a large slope usually has a high value of Rc, and a large proportion of carbonate rock in a catchment reduces Rc in the study area. Temporal increasing trend of Rc during 1961–2000 was found for most catchments in the study area. This increasing trend was primarily resulted from changes of catchment properties, e.g. deforestation in large areas of Guizhou province during the 1950s–1980s. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simulation Study on the Evolution of Groundwater Circulation Systems in Cenozoic Basins of Northern China

Three Cenozoic basins-the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain-which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run-off types, are selected for the study. Based on an analysis of background information of the transect along the middle-latitude region, studies of groundwater dynamics, geochemistry, simulation of water circulation of the main elements as well as isotopic chronology, the information on global changes is collected, the formation of groundwater circulation systems and their evolution under stacked impacts of natural conditions and human activities are discussed, and a correlation is made between the evolutionary features of the above systems in these basins since 25 ka B.P. All these have laid a good foundation for further generalizing the evolutionary model of land water in northern China.     

激光探针等离子体质谱同时测定锆石微区铀—铅年龄及微量元素

建立了一种利用激光探针等离子体质谱技术同时原位测定锆石Ｐｂ－Ｐｂ及Ｐｂ－Ｕ年龄和２５个微量元素的快速分析方法。Ｐ的检出限为１４μｇ／ｇ,Ｓｃ的检出限为３μｇ／ｇ,Ｒｂ、Ｎｂ、Ｂａ稀土元素Ｎｄ、Ｇｄ、Ｄｙ、Ｅｒ及Ｙｂ的检出限为０．１￣０．３μｇ／ｇ,Ｐｂ的检出限０．５μｇ／ｇ,其它稀土元素及Ｓｒ、ｙ、Ｈｆ、Ｔａ、Ｔｈ和Ｕ的检出限为１０￣９０ｎｇ／ｇ。方法对绝大多数微量元素的相对标准偏差为５￣１５％;     

A contrast of two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces in oases of arid areas: A case study of Sangong River Watershed at the northern foot of Tianshan Mountains

Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases, Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978–1987) than in the later stage (1987–1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978–1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources, the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time, intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors.     

雨滴谱数据在S波段双偏振天气雷达数据质量评估中的应用

结合T-Matrix方法和雨滴谱仪数据反演双偏振参量,设计了一种雨滴谱反演评估方法(雨滴谱法),利用其反演结果可对双偏振天气雷达数据进行评估。将此方法应用于不同类型降水过程的雷达偏振参量数据质量评估,结果表明:满足微雨条件时,雨滴谱法与传统的微雨滴法均能有效监测由雷达系统误差导致的观测偏差,且评估结果十分接近;不满足微雨条件时,雨滴谱法评估的不同类型降水过程的雷达数据质量与满足微雨条件下的评估结果十分接近,客观证明了系统调整后雷达运行良好、数据质量稳定;不同雨强(R)情况下,雨滴谱法的评估结果具有一致性。10 mm·h^-1≤R<20 mm·h^-1时,雷达观测的数据质量最为稳定。该雨滴谱法适用范围广,可动态评估双偏振雷达偏振参量质量,有助于雷达调整和数据校正。     

西藏仲巴地区曲嘎组的拆解

根据1∶5万仲巴地区区域地质调查,对雅鲁藏布江缝合带西段夹持于2套混杂岩之间的仲巴微地体原二叠系曲嘎组进行了拆解。研究认为：①原曲嘎组可以解体为3套地层,分别是下古生界的奥陶系—志留系紫曲浦群、上古生界泥盆系纳登尔组和石炭系—二叠系曲嘎群,新建曲嘎群与原曲嘎组没有直接对应或者级别关系;②紫曲浦群以变质碳酸盐岩为主,下部紫曲电站组为紫红色、灰色大理岩与结晶灰岩组合,属中—晚奥陶世,上部紫曲石组以紫红色大理岩为特征,暂归志留纪;③纳登尔组由一套灰色千枚状板岩和钙质片岩组成,上部结晶灰岩增多,时代为泥盆纪,可归属马攸木群;④曲嘎群可划分为3个组：岗珠淌组,以灰色、灰绿色板岩、粉砂岩为主,向上砂岩和灰岩增多,属于石炭纪—早二叠世（乌拉尔世）早期;仲巴组,以肉红色灰质晶粒白云岩及杂色生物屑云质灰岩为特点,分为2个岩性段,属于早—中二叠世（乌拉尔世—瓜德鲁普世早中期）;卡扎勒组以深灰色钙质板岩为主或夹结晶灰岩和砂岩或互层,属于中—晚二叠世（瓜德鲁普世—乐平世）;⑤仲巴地区曲嘎组的拆解在仲巴微地体西部和老仲巴以东的应用有待证实,其在岩性上与相邻地体同期地层有较大差别,但在生物群组成方面具有相似性。     

南北地震带近期地壳水平运动变化分析

对2009、2011及2013年3期陆态网络流动GPS观测资料进行了处理,获得了2009~2011及2011~2013年两个时间段南北地震带地壳水平运动速度图像。参考1999~2007年网络工程流动GPS速度场结果,分析了南北地震带近期地壳水平运动场与应变场变化特征,认为近期地壳运动变化受汶川地震震后影响较大。2013年芦山7.0级地震和岷县漳县6.6级地震是2008年汶川8.0级地震震后应力场调整触发的结果。     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。