Zenisu Ridge: mechanical model of formation

Seabeam, seismic and submersible surveys took place during the Kaiko Project and revealed significant compressive deformation at the northeastern end of the Philippine Sea plate, related to the recent collision of the Izu-Ogasawara Arc against Central Japan. Intraoceanic thrusting at the base of the Zenisu Ridge, a linear topographic high running a few tens of kilometers south of the Nankai Trough, is supported by tectonic, magnetic and gravimetric data. We investigate the formation of the Zenisu Ridge in terms of compressive mechanical failure of a thin elastic-perfectly plastic plate, subducting at a trench and subject to a regional compressive axial force. The rheological envelope concept is used throughout the numerical calculations. Based on a detailed study of flexure of the present-day bending far from the deformation zone, we evaluate the bending forces involved: the bulge is 120 to 150 m high and the compressive stress all along the Nankai Trough is about −100 MPa. In the Zenisu Ridge area, an additional compressive stress is superimposed due to the nearby collision at Izu-Peninsula. We compute the vertical distribution of the deviatoric stress before failure and find that the deviatoric stress is maximum at a depth of 20–25 km in the trench area, and again at the surface 60 to 100 km seaward, in the vicinity of the bulge. The development of a thrust joining these two maxima through the entire thickness of the lithosphere is discussed. The model predicts that the formation of the Zenisu Ridge did not occur before 4 Ma and is caused by progressive tectonic uplift due to the redistribution of bending stresses as the ridge approaches the Nankai Trough.     

Magnetic anomalies in the Shikoku Basin: a new interpretation

Kaiko surveys over the Nankai Trough made available new magnetic and structural data for the northern Shikoku Basin. A survey of the oceanic lithosphere subducting below Southwest Japan along the central Nankai Trough revealed the existence of several north-south basement troughs. They are probably transform faults related to a north-south spreading system. We examine the possibility of a late phase of north-south spreading limited to the axial northernmost Shikoku Basin, active between 14 and 12 Ma. If this system was already active before that time, i.e. during the N55° opening of the southeastern basin, then a triple junction should be found between both areas.Based on these data and previous studies we present a new interpretation of magnetic anomalies over the whole basin. From early east-west rifting to late north-south spreading, opening of the Shikoku Basin proceeded through multiple episodes of spreading. The analysis of magnetic anomalies constrains the kinematic evolution of the basin through time and space. Two successive counter-clockwise rotations of the spreading direction are postulated, at anomaly 6 (19 Ma) and at anomaly 5B (14 Ma), involving segmentation and rotation of the spreading ridge.     

Kinematic evolution of the Tethys belt from the Atlantic ocean to the pamirs since the Triassic

We present an updated series of kinematic reconstructions of the major plates around the Tethys from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pamirs between the Early Jurassic and the Present. This set is used elsewhere as a basis for paleogeographic maps of the entire region. The problems related to the positions of the continents in the Lower Triassic are also discussed. No direct analyses of magnetic anomalies and fracture zones in the Atlantic have been made. Rather, all available poles and rotations have been tested in order to eliminate or minimize possible kinematic errors. The reconstructions are shown for nine key geological periods which correspond to well recognized magnetic anomalies, except for the Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary which correspond to interpolated positions. Paleolatitudes have been drawn using the study of Westphal et al. (1986). An attempt has been made to take into account the displacements caused by formation of the continental margins and basins by stretching. The resulting relative vector of motions along the northern boundary of the Tethys shows a significant change 80 m.y. ago. Left-lateral motion with compression dominates before whereas right-lateral motion with compression dominates after. To the east, rates of motion vary by a factor of three with time and four maxima can be clearly related to tectonic events in the Late Jurassic, Late Cretaceous, Eocene and post Middle Miocene. To the west, north of Apulia, on the contrary, the motion rate has not changed significantly since the Early Cretaceous and is close to 1 cm/yr as an average. These rather complex adjustments in rates and directions of relative motion are produced in great part through a complex migration of the Africa-Eurasia pole of rotation and seem to be mostly governed by the tectonics of the Tethys plate boundary.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Mineral Resources by Use of Classification Schemes and Conditional Simulations

Mineral inventory determination consists of estimating the amount of mineral resources on a block-by-block basis and classifying individual blocks into categories with increasing level of geologic confidence. Such classification is a crucial issue for mining companies, investors, financial institutions, and authorities, but it remains subject to some confusion because of the wide variations in methodologies and the lack of standardized procedures. The first part of this paper considers some of the criteria used to classify resources in practice and their impact through a sensitivity study using data from a Chilean porphyry copper deposit. Five classification criteria are compared and evaluated, namely: Search neighborhoods, absolute and relative kriging variances, absolute and relative conditional simulation variances. It is shown that some classification criteria either favor or penalize the high-grade areas if the grade distribution presents a proportional effect. In the second part of the paper, conditional simulations are used to quantify the uncertainty on the overall mineral resources. This approach is promising for risk analysis and decision-making. Unlike linear kriging, simulations allow inclusion of a cutoff grade in the calculation of the resources and also provide measures of their joint uncertainty over production volumes.     

Conditioning Simulations of Gaussian Random Fields by Ordinary Kriging

Conditioning realizations of stationary Gaussian random fields to a set of data is traditionally based on simple kriging. In practice, this approach may be demanding as it does not account for the uncertainty in the spatial average of the random field. In this paper, an alternative model is presented, in which the Gaussian field is decomposed into a random mean, constant over space but variable over the realizations, and an independent residual. It is shown that, when the prior variance of the random mean is infinitely large (reflecting prior ignorance on the actual spatial average), the realizations of the Gaussian random field are made conditional by substituting ordinary kriging for simple kriging. The proposed approach can be extended to models with random drifts that are polynomials in the spatial coordinates, by using universal or intrinsic kriging for conditioning the realizations, and also to multivariate situations by using cokriging instead of kriging.     

Reducing fluctuations in the sample variogram

In the analysis of regionalized data, irregular sampling patterns are often responsible for large deviations (fluctuations) between the theoretical and sample semi-variograms. This article proposes a new semi-variogram estimator that is unbiased irrespective of the actual multivariate distribution of the data (provided an assumption of stationarity) and has the minimal variance under a given multivariate distribution model. Such an estimator considerably reduces fluctuations in the sample semi-variogram when the data are strongly correlated and clustered in space, and proves to be robust to a misspecification of the multivariate distribution model. The traditional and proposed semi-variogram estimators are compared through an application to a pollution dataset.     

Benthic diatoms in a Mediterranean delta: ecological indicators and a conductivity transfer function for paleoenvironmental studies

The contemporary distribution of benthic diatoms and their use as ecological indicators were examined in a coastal wetland, the Ebro Delta, as a representative of environmental conditions in Mediterranean coastal wetlands. A total of 424 diatom taxa were identified across 24 sites encompassing a wide range of wetland habitat types (coastal lagoons, salt and brackish marshes, shallow bays, microbial mats and nearshore marine waters) and conductivities. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that water conductivity and water depth were the main factors structuring the diatom assemblages. Cluster analysis identified five habitat types according to the similarity in diatom species composition: salt marshes, brackish marshes, brackish coastal lagoons and bays, coastal lagoons with fresher conditions, and nearshore open sea. For each wetland habitat, diatom indicator species were identified. Partial canonical correspondence analysis showed that water conductivity, a proxy for salinity, was the most statistically significant and independent variable for explaining the distribution of benthic diatoms in the study area. A transfer function, using a weighted average regression model, was developed for conductivity and displayed reasonable performance (r ² = 0.64; RMSEP = 0.302 log₁₀ mS/cm). Our study in the Ebro Delta provides a basis for using diatom assemblages to make quantitative conductivity inferences, and for using diatom indicator species to identify wetland habitats. These approaches are complementary and may be valuable for paleoenvironmental studies of (1) effects of large-scale, natural changes in the Delta (e.g. sea-level fluctuations), and (2) impacts of short-term anthropogenic changes, such as the introduction and development of rice agriculture.