Sensitivity analysis of a morphodynamic modelling system applied to a coastal lagoon inlet

This work investigates the recent morphological changes at the inlet of a complex coastal system (Ria de Aveiro lagoon, Portugal). This study was carried out using bathymetric data analysis and numerical simulations obtained with the 2DH morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The present simulations considered only tidal forcing, and a sensitivity analysis was performed by tuning the formula used to compute the sediment transports. A non-uniform sediment grain size distribution for the Ria de Aveiro inlet is considered in the numerical simulations, based on surveys performed in this area. The model results are analysed to assess if they resemble the observed trends of erosion and deposition, as calculated from bathymetric data. A quantitative analysis of the differences between the bathymetric changes obtained through surveys and the numerical results over a period of 3 years considering different sediment transport formulations shows that the formulations of Ackers and White (1973) and Engelund and Hansen (1967) are the ones that best describe the morphodynamic changes driven by tides in the Ria de Aveiro inlet.     

Fate and tidal transport of butyltin and mercury compounds in the waters of the tropical Bach Dang Estuary (Haiphong, Vietnam)

In this work, two field campaigns were performed in July 2008 (wet season) and March 2009 (dry season) to produce original data on the concentration, partition and distribution of mercury and butyltin compounds along the tropical Bach Dang Estuary located in North Vietnam (Haiphong, Red River Delta). The results demonstrate that mercury and butyltin speciation in the surface waters of this type of tropical estuary is greatly affected by the drastic changes in the seasonal conditions. During high river discharge in the wet season, there was a large estuarine input of total Hg and tributyltin, while the longer residence time of the waters during the dry season promotes increasing MMHg formation and TBT degradation. Although most of the Hg and TBT is transported into the estuary from upstream sources, tidal cycle measurements demonstrate that this estuary is a significant source of TBT and MMHg during the wet (～3kgTBT/day) and dry (～3gMMHg/day) seasons.     

The geological evolution of Merapi volcano, Central Java, Indonesia

Merapi is an almost persistently active basalt to basaltic andesite volcanic complex in Central Java (Indonesia) and often referred to as the type volcano for small-volume pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational lava dome failures (Merapi-type nuées ardentes). Stratigraphic field data, published and new radiocarbon ages in conjunction with a new set of ⁴⁰K–⁴⁰Ar and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages, and whole-rock geochemical data allow a reassessment of the geological and geochemical evolution of the volcanic complex. An adapted version of the published geological map of Merapi [(Wirakusumah et al. 1989), Peta Geologi Gunungapi Merapi, Jawa Tengah (Geologic map of Merapi volcano, Central Java), 1:50,000] is presented, in which eight main volcano stratigraphic units are distinguished, linked to three main evolutionary stages of the volcanic complex—Proto-Merapi, Old Merapi and New Merapi. Construction of the Merapi volcanic complex began after 170?ka. The two earliest (Proto-Merapi) volcanic edifices, Gunung Bibi (109?±?60?ka), a small basaltic andesite volcanic structure on Merapi’s north-east flank, and Gunung Turgo and Gunung Plawangan (138?±?3?ka; 135?±?3?ka), two basaltic hills in the southern sector of the volcano, predate the Merapi cone sensu stricto. Old Merapi started to grow at ~30?ka, building a stratovolcano of basaltic andesite lavas and intercalated pyroclastic rocks. This older Merapi edifice was destroyed by one or, possibly, several flank failures, the latest of which occurred after 4.8?±?1.5?ka and marks the end of the Old Merapi stage. The construction of the recent Merapi cone (New Merapi) began afterwards. Mostly basaltic andesite pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits of both Old and New Merapi (<11,792?±?90 ¹⁴C years BP) cover the lower flanks of the edifice. A shift from medium-K to high-K character of the eruptive products occurred at ~1,900 ¹⁴C years BP, with all younger products having high-K affinity. The radiocarbon record points towards an almost continuous activity of Merapi since this time, with periods of high eruption frequency interrupted by shorter intervals of apparently lower eruption rates, which is reflected in the geochemical composition of the eruptive products. The Holocene stratigraphic record reveals that fountain collapse pyroclastic flows are a common phenomenon at Merapi. The distribution and run-out distances of these flows have frequently exceeded those of the classic Merapi-type nuées ardentes of the recent activity. Widespread pumiceous fallout deposits testify the occurrence of moderate to large (subplinian) eruptions (VEI 3–4) during the mid to late Holocene. VEI 4 eruptions, as identified in the stratigraphic record, are an order of magnitude larger than any recorded historical eruption of Merapi, except for the 1872?AD and, possibly, the October–November 2010 events. Both types of eruptive and volcanic phenomena require careful consideration in long-term hazard assessment at Merapi.     

Timing of the late glacial and Younger Dryas cold reversal in southern Chile varved sediments

The timing of the last deglaciation in southern Chile is re-evaluated from a calendar varve chronology (Lago Puyehue, 40° S). The climate shifts are analysed by continuous annual varve-thickness measurements through the ∼17,100 cal. year to 10,800 cal. year BP time window (∼3.5 m sediment core). The varve years are determined by the alternation of light (phytoplankton-rich) and dark (terrigenous and organic-rich) layers forming graded annual couplets (∼0.2 to 0.8 mm/year). The varve chronology is constructed by conventional varve-counting methods on thin sections after correction for instantaneous volcanic and/or seismic events detected in the thin sections. The calibrated varve-age model derived from the manual varve counting is constrained by high-resolution grey-scale (GS) semi-automatic counts of the annual light phytoplankton-rich layers (∼120 μm to 300 μm thick). Due to physical sediment properties the GS constitutes a proxy record for the phytoplankton/terrigenous varve-thickness variations through the sediment record. The varve couplets are thicker/thinner during humid/dry phases and darker/lighter (negative/positive annual grey-scale index) during cold/warm phases. Our results show that at 40° S the last deglaciation took place in two phases between ∼17,100 cal. year and ∼15,500 cal. year BP. We note a climate instability between ∼15,500 cal. year and 13,300 cal. year BP and a significant dry phase between ∼15,000 and 14,500 cal. year BP. We evidence a cold event in two phases between ∼13,300 and 12,200 cal. year BP interrupted by a dry event between ∼12,800 and 12,600 cal. year BP. The onset of a significant warmer period is observed after ∼11,500 cal. year BP. Our results provide new evidence of a Younger Dryas cool reversal in southern Chile, i.e., the Huelmo/Mascardi event Hajdas et al. (2003) associated with an abrupt dry pulse at ∼12,800–12,600 cal. year BP. The high-resolution grey-scale measurements performed on the biogenic varves from Lago Puyehue provide a reliable calibrated chronology of the regional environmental and climate shifts during the last deglaciation. This is eighth in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M.-F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

The effect of peat structure on the spatial distribution of biogenic gases within bogs

Northern peatlands are a large source of atmospheric methane (CH₄) and both a source and a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). The rate and temporal variability in gas exchanges with peat soils is directly related to the spatial distribution of these free‐phase gases within the peat column. In this paper, we present results from surface and borehole ground‐penetrating radar surveys – constrained with direct soil and gas sampling – that compare the spatial distribution of gas accumulations in two raised bogs: one in Wales (UK), the other in Maine (USA). Although the two peatlands have similar average thickness, physical properties of the peat matrix differ, particularly in terms of peat type and degree of humification. We hypothesize that these variations in physical properties are responsible for the differences in gas distribution between the two peatlands characterized by (1) gas content up to 10.8% associated with woody peat and presence of wood layers in Caribou Bog (Maine) and (2) a more homogenous distribution with gas content up to 5.7% at the surface (i.e. <0.5 m deep) in Cors Fochno (Wales). Our results highlight the variability in biogenic gas accumulation and distribution across peatlands and suggest that the nature of the peat matrix has a key role in defining how biogenic gas accumulates within and is released to the atmosphere from peat soils. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A European digital accelerometric database:statistical analysis of engineering parameters of small to moderate magnitude events

During the NERIES Project, an accelerometric database containing European digital information was developed. Besides event and station metadata, ground motion parameters, computed in a homogeneous manner, were assembled:PGA, PGV, AI, TD, CAV, HI and PSV(f,5%)(19,961 components, 2629 events, 547 stations). Merging small and moderate magnitude events produced a unique database capable of providing important information such as:(i) Correlations between several ground motion parameters follow analogous trends as in previous worldwide datasets, with slight corrections.(ii) Although PGA attenuations with distance show great uncertainties, four recent GMPEs recommended for Europe fit quite well the central 50% data interval for the distance range 10 R 200 km; outside these distances, they do not fit.(iii) Soil amplification ratios indicate that weak motion(low magnitudes and larger distances) shows larger amplification than strong motion(short distances and large magnitudes) as represented in UBC97 for the USA, but not in EC8 for Europe.(iv) Average spectral shapes are smaller than in the EC8.(v) Differences in amplification factors for PGA, PGV and HI for EC8 soil classes B and C, and differences in spectral shapes for these soil classes, indicate that EC8, Type 2 S-coefficient should be frequency dependent, as in UBC97.     

The influence of ground ice distribution on geomorphic dynamics since the Little Ice Age in proglacial areas of two cirque glacier systems

Holocene glaciers have contributed to an abundance of unstable sediments in mountainous environments. In permafrost environments, these sediments can contain ground ice and are subject to rapid geomorphic activity and evolution under condition of a warming climate. To understand the influence of ground ice distribution on this activity since the Little Ice Age (LIA), we have investigated the Pierre Ronde and Rognes proglacial areas, two cirque glacier systems located in the periglacial belt of the Mont Blanc massif. For the first time, electrical resistivity tomography, temperature data loggers and differential global positioning systems (dGPS) are combined with historical documents and glaciological data analysis to produce a complete study of evolution in time and space of these small landsystems since the LIA. This approach allows to explain spatial heterogeneity of current internal structure and dynamics. The studied sites are a complex assemblage of debris‐covered glacier, ice‐rich frozen debris and unfrozen debris. Ground ice distribution is related to former glacier thermal regime, isolating effect of debris cover, water supply to specific zones, and topography. In relation with this internal structure, present dynamics are dominated by rapid ice melt in the debris‐covered upper slopes, slow creep processes in marginal glacigenic rock glaciers, and weak, superficial reworking in deglaciated moraines. Since the LIA, geomorphic activity is mainly spatially restricted within the proglacial areas. Sediment exportation has occurred in a limited part of the former Rognes Glacier and through water pocket outburst flood and debris flows in Pierre Ronde. Both sites contributed little sediment supply to the downslope geomorphic system, rather by episodic events than by constant supply. In that way, during Holocene and even in a paraglacial context as the recent deglaciation, proglacial areas of cirque glaciers act mostly as sediment sinks, when active geomorphic processes are unable to evacuate sediment downslope, especially because of the slope angle weakness. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A survey of ultraviolet-bright sources behind the halo of M31

We have performed a wide-area ultraviolet (UV) imaging survey using the GALaxy Evolution eXplorer to search for bright, point-like UV sources behind M31's extended halo. Our survey consisted of 46 pointings covering an effective area of ≈50 deg², in both the far-UV and near-UV channels. We combined these data with optical R -band observations acquired with the WIYN Mosaic-1 imager on the Kitt Peak National Observatory 0.9-m WIYN telescope. An analysis of the brightness and colours of sources matched between our photometric catalogues yielded ≈100 UV-bright quasar candidates. We have obtained discovery spectra for 76 of these targets with the Kast spectrometer on the Lick 3-m telescope and confirmed 30 active galactic nuclei and quasars, 29 galaxies at   z > 0.02  including several early-type systems, 16 Galactic stars (hot main-sequence stars) and one featureless source previously identified as a BL Lac object. Future UV spectroscopy of the brightest targets with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope will enable a systematic search for diffuse gas in the extended halo of M31.     

Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers’ decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker’s objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.