伽师强震群震源破裂特征的初步分析

为深入研究1997年新疆伽师地区连续发生的强震群的震源破裂特征,利用全球数字地震台网(GDSN)宽频带数字资料及区域台网资料,较详细地研究了伽师强震群的震源机制及震源破裂特征.结果表明:伽师强震群的震源机制解主要有走滑和正倾两种破裂类型,其共同特点是主压应力轴方向沿北北东向,主张应力轴沿北西向,与区域构造应力场方向存在差异,具有明显局部特征;从震源破裂特征来看,伽师强震的滑动尺度、上升时间和持续时间均较小,震源破裂面积不大,是由一点向四周快速扩散的脆性破裂,无明显伸展方向;伽师强震群的破裂断层面为北东向,与震源深度梯度变化带、地壳接触变形梯度变化带、等烈度线以及地震扩展方向吻合;伽师强震群是在近南北向挤压环境下,在震源区附近剪切和张扭应力作用下发生的多次沿北东向的脆性快速破裂,从而造成了伽师强震群以张性破裂和左旋走滑为主的震源特征.     

The formation of new quasi-stationary vortex patterns from the interaction of two identical vortices in a rotating fluid

Within the framework of the quasi-geostrophic approximation, the interactions of two identical initially circular vortex patches are studied using the contour dynamics/surgery method. The cases of barotropic vortices and of vortices in the upper layer of a two-layer fluid are considered. Diagrams showing the end states of vortex interactions and, in particular, the new regime of vortex triplet formation are constructed for a wide range of external parameters. This paper shows that, in the nonlinear evolution of two such (like-signed) vortices, the filaments and vorticity fragments surrounding the merged vortex often collapse into satellite vortices. Therefore, the conditions for the formation and the quasi-steady motions of a new type of triplet-shaped vortex structure are obtained.     

Assessment of the dynamic response of unreinforced masonry structures using a macroelement modeling approach

The seismic performance of unreinforced masonry structures is strongly associated with the interaction between in‐plane and out‐of‐plane mechanisms. The seismic response of these structures has been thoroughly investigated by means of experimental testing, analytical procedures, and computational approaches. Within the framework of the numerical simulations, models based on the finite element method provide a good prediction of the seismic performance of unreinforced masonry structures. However, they usually require a high computational cost and advanced user expertise to define appropriate mechanical properties and to interpret the numerical results. Because of these limitations, simplified models for practical applications have been developed during the last decades. Despite this, a great number of these models focus mostly on the evaluation of the in‐plane response, assuming box (or integral) behavior of the structure. In this paper, a simplified macroelement modeling approach is used to simulate the seismic response of 2 masonry prototypes taking into consideration the combined in‐plane and out‐of‐plane action. The numerical investigations were performed in the static and dynamic fields by using pushover analyses and nonlinear dynamic analyses respectively. The latter is a novel implementation of a model previously developed for static analysis. The results obtained from this study are in good agreement with those provided by a detailed nonlinear continuum FE approach, demonstrating the applicability of this macroelement model with a significant reduction of the computational cost.     

Scale effects on modelling the seismic signature of gas: results from an outcrop analogue

Numerous examples of reservoir fields from continental and marine environments involve thin‐bedded geology, yet, the inter‐relationship between thin‐bedded geology, fluid flow and seismic wave propagation is poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the 4D seismic signature due to saturation changes of gas within thin layers, and address the challenge of identifying the relevant scales and properties, which correctly define the geology, fluid flow and seismic wave propagation in the field. Based on the study of an outcrop analogue for a thin‐bedded turbidite, we model the time‐lapse seismic response to fluid saturation changes for different levels of model scale, and explore discrepancies in quantitative seismic attributes caused by upscaling. Our model reflects the geological complexity associated with thin‐bedded turbidites, and its coupling to fluid flow, which in turn affects the gas saturation distribution in space, and its time‐lapse seismic imprint. Rock matrix and fluid properties are modelled after selected fields to reproduce representative field models with realistic impedance contrasts. In addition, seismic modelling includes multiples, in order to assess their contribution in seismic propagation through thin gas layers. Our results show that multiples could contribute significantly to the measured amplitudes in the case of thin‐bedded geology. This suggests that forward/inverse modelling involving the flow simulation and seismic domains used in time‐lapse seismic interpretation should account for thin layers, when these are present in the geological setting.     

Understanding fracture distribution and its relation to knickpoint evolution in the Rio Icacos watershed (Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory,Puerto Rico) using landscape-scale hydrogeophysics

The Rio Icacos watershed in the Luquillo Mountains (Puerto Rico) is unique due to its extremely rapid weathering rates. The watershed is incised into a quartz diorite that has developed a large knickzone defining the river profile. Regolith thickness within the watershed generally decreases from 20 to 30 m at the ridges to several meters in the quartz diorite-dominated valley to tens of centimeters near the major river knickpoint, as determined from previous studies. Above the knickzone, we observe spheroidal corestones, but below this weathering is much less apparent. Measured erosion rates from previous studies are also high in the knickzone compared with upper elevations within the river profile. A suite of near-surface geophysical methods (i.e. ground penetrating radar and terrain conductivity) capable of fast data acquisition in rugged landscapes, was deployed at kilometer scales to characterize critical zone structure. Concentrations of chaotic ground penetrating radar (GPR) reflections and diffraction hyperbolas with low electrical conductivity were observed in vertical zones that outcrop at the land surface as areas of intense fracturing and spheroidally weathered corestones. The width of these fractured and weathered zones showed an increase with proximity to the knickpoint, and was attributed to dilation of these sub-vertical fractures near the knickpoint, as postulated theoretically by a stress model calculated for the topographic variability across the knickzone in the Rio Icacos, and that shows a release of compressive stress near the knickpoint. We hypothesize that erosion rates increase in the knickzone because of this inferred dilation of fractures. Specifically, opened fractures could enhance access of water and in turn promote spalling, erosion, and spheroidal weathering. This study shows that ground-based hydrogeophysical methods used at the landscape-scale (traditionally applied at smaller scales) can be used to explore critical zone architecture at the scales needed to explain the extreme variability in erosion rates across river profiles. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plurigaussian modeling of geological domains based on the truncation of non-stationary Gaussian random fields

The plurigaussian model is used in mining engineering, oil reservoir characterization, hydrology and environmental sciences to simulate the layout of geological domains in the subsurface, while reproducing their spatial continuity and dependence relationships. However, this model is well-established only in the stationary case, when the spatial distribution of the domains is homogeneous in space, and suffers from theoretical and practical impediments in the non-stationary case. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes extending the model to the truncation of intrinsic random fields of order k with Gaussian generalized increments, which allows reproducing spatial trends in the distribution of the geological domains. Methodological tools and algorithms are presented to infer the model parameters and to construct realizations of the geological domains conditioned to existing data. The proposal is illustrated with the simulation of rock type domains in an ore deposit in order to demonstrate its applicability. Despite the limited number of conditioning data, the results show a remarkable agreement between the simulated domains and the lithological model interpreted by geologists, while the conventional stationary plurigaussian model turns out to be unsuccessful.     

Stochastic evaluation of the impact of sewer inlets’ hydraulic capacity on urban pluvial flooding

Sewer inlet structures are vital components of urban drainage systems and their operational conditions can largely affect the overall performance of the system. However, their hydraulic behaviour and the way in which it is affected by clogging is often overlooked in urban drainage models, thus leading to misrepresentation of system performance and, in particular, of flooding occurrence. In the present paper, a novel methodology is proposed to stochastically model stormwater urban drainage systems, taking the impact of sewer inlet operational conditions (e.g. clogging due to debris accumulation) on urban pluvial flooding into account. The proposed methodology comprises three main steps: (i) identification of sewer inlets most prone to clogging based upon a spatial analysis of their proximity to trees and evaluation of sewer inlet locations; (ii) Monte Carlo simulation of the capacity of inlets prone to clogging and subsequent simulation of flooding for each sewer inlet capacity scenario, and (iii) delineation of stochastic flood hazard maps. The proposed methodology was demonstrated using as case study design storms as well as two real storm events observed in the city of Coimbra (Portugal), which reportedly led to flooding in different areas of the catchment. The results show that sewer inlet capacity can indeed have a large impact on the occurrence of urban pluvial flooding and that it is essential to account for variations in sewer inlet capacity in urban drainage models. Overall, the stochastic methodology proposed in this study constitutes a useful tool for dealing with uncertainties in sewer inlet operational conditions and, as compared to more traditional deterministic approaches, it allows a more comprehensive assessment of urban pluvial flood hazard, which in turn enables better-informed flood risk assessment and management decisions.     

Comparison of numerical hindcasted severe waves with Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

Severe sea states in the North Sea present a challenge to wave forecasting systems and a threat to offshore installations such as oil and gas platforms and offshore wind farms. Here, we study the ability of a third-generation spectral wave model to reproduce winter sea states in the North Sea. Measured and modeled time series of integral wave parameters and directional wave spectra are compared for a 12-day period in the winter of 2013–2014 when successive severe storms moved across the North Atlantic and the North Sea. Records were obtained from a Doppler radar and wave buoys. The hindcast was performed with the WAVEWATCH III model (Tolman 2014) with high spectral resolution both in frequency and direction. A good general agreement was obtained for integrated parameters, but discrepancies were found to occur in spectral shapes.     

Modélisation glacio-hydrologique et gestion des ressources en eau dans les Andes équatoriennes : l’exemple de Quito

La forte croissance socio-économique de Quito a conduit à d’importants projets de transferts interbassins, intensifiant la mobilisation des ressources d’altitude situées dans des zones écologiques sensibles et connaissant une fonte accélérée des glaciers. Afin d’étudier divers scénarios d’évolutions, nous proposons une modélisation du continuum climat/glacier/hydrologie/gestion des ressources en eau. Utilisant l’outil Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), nous avons développé : (1) une modélisation hydro-climatologique semi-distribuée avec des données mensuelles homogénéisées par vectorisation régionale ; (2) une modélisation de la production en eau des glaciers et de leur évolution interannuelle ; (3) une modélisation en unités hydrologiques distinguant différentes couvertures de sols ; et (4) une modélisation de la gestion distinguant droits, allocation et usages de l’eau. Nous présentons les résultats du calage hydrologique mensuel (1963–2006), en étudiant particulièrement l’équifinalité de diverses paramétrisations. Nous montrons la souplesse, la robustesse et les limites de la modélisation proposée, contribuant à cerner différentes incertitudes dans l’évaluation de scénarios prospectifs.     

Basinga: A cell-by-cell GIS toolbox for computing basin average scaling factors,cosmogenic production rates and denudation rates

The calculation of denudation rates from the measured cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in river sediments requires assumptions and approximations. Several different approaches and numerical tools are available in the literature. A widely used analytical approach represents the muogenic production with one or two exponentials, assumes the attenuation length of muons to be constant and also neglects temporal variations in the Earth's magnetic field. The denudation rates are then calculated directly and analytically from the measured concentrations. A second numerical and iterative approach was more recently proposed and considers a more rigorous muogenic production law based on pre-calculated variable attenuation length of muons and accounts for temporal changes of the magnetic field. It also assumes a specific distribution of denudation rates throughout the basin and uses an iterative approach to calculate the basin average denudation rates. We tested the two approaches across several natural basins and found that both approaches provide similar denudation results. Hence, assuming exponential muogenic production and constant attenuation length of muons in the rock has little impact on the derived denudation rates. Therefore, unless a priori known distributions of denudation rates are to be tested, there does not appear to be any particular gain from using the second iterative method which is computationally less effective. Based on these findings, we developed and describe here Basinga , a new ArcGIS® and QGIS toolbox which computes the basin average scaling factors, cosmogenic production rates and denudation rates for several tens of drainage basins together. Basinga follows either the Lal/Stone or the Lifton/Sato/Dunai scaling schemes and includes several optional tools for correcting for topographic shielding, ice cover and lithology. We have also developed an original method for correcting the cosmogenic production rates for past variations in the Earth's magnetic field. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.