Conditional Simulation of Nongaussian Random Functions

This paper presents a conditional simulation procedure that overcomes the limits of gaussian models and enables one to simulate regionalized variables with highly asymmetrical histograms or with partial or total connectivity of extreme values. The philosophy of the method is similar to that of sequential indicator technique, but it is more accurate because it is based on a complete bivariate model by means of an isofactorial law. The resulting simulations, which can be continuous or categorical, not only honor measured values at data points, but also reproduce the mono and bivariate laws of the random function associated to the regionalized variable, that is, every one or two-point statistic: histogram, variogram, indicator variograms. The sequential isofactorial method can also be adapted to conditional simulation of block values, without resorting to point–support simulations.     

Recent effects of tidal and hydro‐meteorological changes on coastal plains near the mouth of the Amazon River

The goal of this work was to understand the main hydrodynamic processes acting on tidal flats of the coast of Amapá near the mouth of the Amazon River, and how they change over the short term (~ 20 years). The analysis of morphological and geobotanical units was carried out by applying processing and interpretation methods to optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, combined with data on water salinity, maximum flood height, sedimentary facies data, rainfall and river discharge. The temporal analysis of morphological and geobotanical units suggests the relative stabilization of savannah, ‘várzea’ and mangrove areas during the drier period and increasing tidal amplitude between 1987 to 1997. The wetter period and decreasing tidal amplitude between 1997 to 2008 led to an increase in the area of ‘várzea’ and lakes over savannah, and the expansion of mangroves mainly over the inundated field and tidal mud/mixed flats. Therefore, the decrease in rainfall index during the drier period is well‐correlated with the reduction of the Calçoene River discharge and jointly with increasing tidal amplitude favored the increase of migration rate of the mud bank and erosion profile along the littoral. It was followed by the increase of the Calçoene River discharge and jointly with decreasing tidal amplitude during the wetter period, favoring the development of mangroves on muddy substrates near the coastline. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra

Abstract

The definition of rainfall behaviour at the regional level is of great importance in planning policy for the rational use of water resources for both agricultural and urban uses. It allows the delimitation of areas of homogeneous rainfall features and shows the system dynamics in the area, so providing more comprehensive knowledge about the rainfall. Precipitation zones were identified within the São Francisco River basin, Northeast Brazil, by analysing the rainfall frequencies by means of global wavelet power spectra. Data from 200 raingauges were analysed and the results of the overall power spectra showed a high annual frequency throughout the basin; however, other frequencies are present with minor significance that represent changes in the rainfall regime. Although, the computed global wavelet power spectra presented an annual frequency, they showed peculiar patterns (denoted A and B) that could be used to characterize the region. Thus, three sub-regions with homogeneous rainfall patterns were identified as: Region A (south part of the basin) and Region B (north part of the basin), with frequency patterns A and B, respectively, and a Transition Zone in the central part that shows both frequency patterns.

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Morais, B.S., 2013. Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 789–796.     

Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models

Abstract

New wavelet and artificial neural network (WA) hybrid models are proposed for daily streamflow forecasting at 1, 3, 5 and 7 days ahead, based on the low-frequency components of the original signal (approximations). The results show that the proposed hybrid models give significantly better results than the classical artificial neural network (ANN) model for all tested situations. For short-term (1-day ahead) forecasts, information on higher-frequency signal components was essential to ensure good model performance. However, for forecasting more days ahead, lower-frequency components are needed as input to the proposed hybrid models. The WA models also proved to be effective for eliminating the lags often seen in daily streamflow forecasts obtained by classical ANN models. 

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Silva, G.B.L., 2013. Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 312–324.     

Modelling regional impacts of climate change on water resources: the Júcar basin,Spain

Abstract

In this paper we analyse all currently available simulated climate scenarios, proposed by the Spanish Agency of Meteorology (AEMET), for the period 2010–2040 on the geographical area covered by the Júcar River basin, located in eastern Spain. This is done through the validation of these scenarios using historical records, and by assessing the impact on water resources for the next 30 years by means of a hydrological model. By taking the period 1960–1990 as the control period, a careful comparison of its historical records against AEMET scenarios is performed. Although temperature records are modelled properly, precipitation data are widely underestimated in a range from 8% to 29%. This wide variability observed in the control period is also found in the precipitation scenarios for the period 2010–2040. The impact on water resources shows a great degree of dispersion, ranging from –13.45% to 18.1% with a mean value of –2.13%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann     

On‐line Solid Phase Extraction of Copper in Water Samples with Flow Injection Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry

An on‐line solid phase extraction method for the preconcentration and determination of Cu(II) by flame atomic absorption spectrometry has been described. The procedure is based on the retention of Cu(II) ions at pH 6.0 on a minicolumn packed with Amberlite XAD‐1180 resin impregnated with chrome azurol S. After preconcentration, Cu(II) ions adsorbed on the impregnated resin were eluted by 1 mol L^?1 HNO₃ solution. Several parameters, such as pH, type of eluent, flow rates of sample and eluent solutions, amount of resin were evaluated. At optimized conditions, for 3.5 min of preconcentration time, the system achieved a detection limit of 1.0 µg L^?1, and a relative standard deviation of 1.2% at 0.2 µg mL^?1 copper. An enrichment factor of 56‐fold was obtained with respect to the copper determination. The proposed method was successfully validated by the analysis of standard reference material (TMDA 54.4 lake water) and recovery studies. The method was applied to the preconcentration of Cu(II) in natural water samples.     

Assessing estuarine environmental quality using fish-based indices: performance evaluation under climatic instability

The seasonal variation of five selected multimetric indices for the determination of the Ecological Quality Status (EQS) of transitional waters was evaluated, as well as the indices’ responses to an extreme drought event that occurred in 2005. The database used regards the Mondego River estuary, which was sampled from June 2003 to August 2006 on a monthly basis. Among the selected indices (EBI - Deegan et al. [Deegan, L., Finn, J.T., Ayvazlan, S.G., Ryder-Kieffer, C.A., Buonaccoesi, J., 1997. Development and validation of an Estuarine Biotic Integrity Index. Estuaries 30(3), 601-617], EDI - Borja et al. [Borja, A., Franco, J., Valencia, V., Bald, J., Muxika, I., Belzunce, M.J., Solaun, O., 2004. Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive from the Basque Country (northern Spain): a methodological approach. Marine Pollution Bulletin 48(3-4), 209-218], EFCI - Harrison and Whitfield [Harrison, T.D., Whitfield, A.K., 2004. A multi-metric fish index to assess the environmental condition of estuaries. Journal of Fish Biology 65, 683-710], EBI - Breine et al. [Breine, J.J., Maes, J., Quataert, P., Van den Bergh, E., Simoens, I., Van Thuyne, G., Belpaire, C., 2007. A fish-based assessment tool for the ecological quality of the brackish Scheldt estuary in Flanders (Belgium). Hydrobiologia 575, 141-159] and TFCI - Coates et al. [Coates, S., Waugh, A., Anwar, A., Robson, M., 2007. Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive. Marine Pollution Bulletin 55, 225-240]), the EBI by Breine et al. (2007) was the only that evidenced clear interannual and seasonal variations. The EQS by the several indices ranged from “Low” to “High”, depending on the index considered, evidencing the high level of mismatch between indices. The results are discussed in the scope of the EU Water Framework Directive, regarding monitoring strategies, application of indices and EQS assessment.     

Nutrient distributions over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf from Mar del Plata (Argentina) to Itajaí (Brazil): Winter–summer aspects

Nutrient distributions observed at some depths along the continental shelf from 27°05′S (Brazil) to 39°31′S (Argentina) in winter, 2003 and summer, 2004 related to salinity and dissolved oxygen (mL L⁻¹) and saturation (%) data showed remarkable influences of fresh water discharge over the coastal region and in front of the La Plata estuary. In the southern portion of the study area different processes were verified. Upwelling processes caused by ocean dynamics typical of shelf break areas, eddies related to surface dynamics and regeneration processes confirmed by the increase of nutrients and the decrease of dissolved and saturation oxygen data were verified. High silicate concentrations in the surface waters were identified related to low salinities (minimum of 21.22 in winter and 21.96 in summer), confirming the importance of freshwater inputs in this region, especially in winter. Silicate concentration range showed values between 0.00 and 83.52 μM during winter and from 0.00 to 41.16 μM during summer. Phosphate concentrations worked as a secondary trace of terrestrial input and their values varied from 0.00 to 3.30 μM in winter and from 0.03 to 2.26 μM in summer; however, in shallow waters, phosphate indicated more clearly the fresh water influence. The most important information given by nitrate concentrations was the presence of water from SACW upwelling that represents a new source of nutrients for marine primary production. Nitrate maximum values reached 41.96 μM in winter and 33.10 μM in summer. At a depth ∼800 m, high nitrate, phosphate and silicate concentrations were related to Malvinas Current Waters, Subantarctic Shallow Waters and Antarctic Atlantic Intermediate Waters (AAIW). Dissolved oxygen varied from 3.41 to 7.06 mL L⁻¹ in winter and from 2.65 to 6.85 mL L⁻¹ in summer. The percentage of dissolved oxygen saturation in the waters showed values between 48% and 113% in winter and from 46% to135% in summer. The most important primary production was verified in the summer, and situations of undersaturation were mainly observed below 50 m depth and at some points near the coast. The anti-correlation between nutrients and dissolved oxygen which showed evident undersaturation also revealed important potential sites of remineralization processes. The nutrient behaviours showed some aspects of the processes that occur over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf and in their land–sea interfaces between Mar del Plata and Itajaí.     

Impact of winter dense water formation on shelf sediment erosion (evidence from the Gulf of Lions,NW Mediterranean)

A 1-year survey of sediment dynamics on the Têt inner-shelf in the south-western part of the Gulf of Lions was conducted as part of the EUROSTRATAFORM program (European Margin Strata Formation) from October 2004 to November 2005. Several bottom instruments (ADCP, wave gauge and altimeters) were deployed at 28 m water depth on the Têt prodelta to measure forcing responsible for sediment erosion and transport on the inner-shelf.