Estimates of groundwater discharge to a coastal wetland using multiple techniques: Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, USA

Quantifying water exchange between a coastal wetland and the underlying groundwater is important for closing water, energy and chemical budgets. The coastal wetlands of the Florida Everglades (USA) are at the forefront of a large hydrologic restoration project, and understanding of groundwater/surface-water interactions is needed to comprehend the effects of the project. Four independent techniques were used to identify water exchange at varying spatial and temporal scales in Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park. The techniques included a water-budget study and measurements of hydraulic head gradients, geochemical tracers, and temperature. During the 18-month study, the four methods converged as to the timing of groundwater discharge, typically between June and September, contemporaneous with the wet season and increasing surface-water levels. These results were unexpected, as groundwater discharge was predicted to be greatest when surface-water levels were low, typically during the dry season. Either a time lag of 1?C5?months in the response of groundwater discharge to low surface-water levels or precipitation-induced groundwater discharge may explain the results. Groundwater discharge was a significant contributor (27?%) to the surface water in Taylor Slough with greater rates of discharge observed towards the coastline in response to seawater intrusion.     

Conditional Simulation of Random Fields with Bivariate Gamma Isofactorial Distributions

This work focuses on a random function model with gamma marginal and bivariate isofactorial distributions, which has been applied in mining geostatistics for estimating recoverable reserves by disjunctive kriging. The objective is to widen its use to conditional simulation and further its application to the modeling of continuous attributes in geosciences. First, the main properties of the bivariate gamma isofactorial distributions are analyzed, with emphasis in the destructuring of the extreme values, the presence of a proportional effect (higher variability in high-valued areas), and the asymmetry in the spatial correlation of the indicator variables with respect to the median threshold. Then, we provide examples of stationary random functions with such bivariate distributions, for which the shape parameter of the marginal distribution is half an integer. These are defined as the sum of squared independent Gaussian random fields. An iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to perform the simulation conditional to a set of existing data. Such ‘multivariate chi-square’ model generalizes the well-known multigaussian model and is more flexible, since it allows defining a shape parameter which controls the asymmetry of the marginal and bivariate distributions.     

The fit of the continents around the North Atlantic Ocean

A new reassembly of the continents around the North Atlantic Ocean is presented. The first criterion used for this reassembly is the identification of the structural framework related to the opening which consists of marginal fracture zones generated by offsets of the Rift. The Africa—North America, Eurasia—Greenland, Greenland—North America and Eurasia—North America adjustments are successively discussed. It is argued that the adjustments are best made at the 3000-meters isobath between Africa and North America and at the 2000-meters isobath for the younger rifts. The difference is attributed to subsidence and modification of continental margins with time. The importance of the Late Paleozoic tectonic phase in determining the subsequent pattern of Mesozoic rifting is emphasized.     

Heat balance and eddies in the Peru-Chile current system

The Peru-Chile current System (PCS) is a region of persistent biases in global climate models. It has strong coastal upwelling, alongshore boundary currents, and mesoscale eddies. These oceanic phenomena provide essential heat transport to maintain a cool oceanic surface underneath the prevalent atmospheric stratus cloud deck, through a combination of mean circulation and eddy flux. We demonstrate these behaviors in a regional, quasi-equilibrium oceanic model that adequately resolves the mesoscale eddies with climatological forcing. The key result is that the atmospheric heating is large (>50 W m^?2) over a substantial strip >500 km wide off the coast of Peru, and the balancing lateral oceanic flux is much larger than provided by the offshore Ekman flux alone. The atmospheric heating is weaker and the coastally influenced strip is narrower off Chile, but again the Ekman flux is not sufficient for heat balance. The eddy contribution to the oceanic flux is substantial. Analysis of eddy properties shows strong surface temperature fronts and associated large vorticity, especially off Peru. Cyclonic eddies moderately dominate the surface layer, and anticyclonic eddies, originating from the nearshore poleward Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC), dominate the subsurface, especially off Chile. The sensitivity of the PCS heat balance to equatorial intra-seasonal oscillations is found to be small. We demonstrate that forcing the regional model with a representative, coarse-resolution global reanalysis wind product has dramatic and deleterious consequences for the oceanic circulation and climate heat balance, the eddy heat flux in particular.     

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Linking multi-level governance to local common-pool resource theory using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis: Insights from twenty years of biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Understanding the relationship between multi-level institutional linkages and conditions influencing the likelihood of successful collective action has practical and theoretical relevance to sustainable local resource governance. This paper studies the relationship between multi-level linkages and local autonomy, a facilitating condition found to increase the likelihood of local successful collective action. A technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to a longitudinal comparative data set. In the context of the decentralization of a protected area system in Costa Rica (1986–2006), it traced the emergence and endurance of autonomy among local institutions for biodiversity conservation. The technique illustrates which set of multi-level linkages combined in different ways, and at different points in time, to reach the same outcome (local autonomy). The findings show that a unique set of combinations of multi-level linkages led to the emergence of local autonomy among institutions for biodiversity conservation governance. In contrast, a more diverse set was associated with the endurance of local autonomy over time, suggesting that institutional diversity may play a more prominent role in the maintenance of institutional robustness than in processes of institutional emergence.     

Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %.     

ITRF2008: an improved solution of the international terrestrial reference frame

ITRF2008 is a refined version of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame based on reprocessed solutions of the four space geodetic techniques: VLBI, SLR, GPS and DORIS, spanning 29, 26, 12.5 and 16?years of observations, respectively. The input data used in its elaboration are time series (weekly from satellite techniques and 24-h session-wise from VLBI) of station positions and daily Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs). The ITRF2008 origin is defined in such a way that it has zero translations and translation rates with respect to the mean Earth center of mass, averaged by the SLR time series. Its scale is defined by nullifying the scale factor and its rate with respect to the mean of VLBI and SLR long-term solutions as obtained by stacking their respective time series. The scale agreement between these two technique solutions is estimated to be 1.05 ± 0.13 ppb at epoch 2005.0 and 0.049 ± 0.010?ppb/yr. The ITRF2008 orientation (at epoch 2005.0) and its rate are aligned to the ITRF2005 using 179 stations of high geodetic quality. An estimate of the origin components from ITRF2008 to ITRF2005 (both origins are defined by SLR) indicates differences at epoch 2005.0, namely: ?0.5, ?0.9 and ?4.7?mm along X, Y and Z-axis, respectively. The translation rate differences between the two frames are zero for Y and Z, while we observe an X-translation rate of 0.3?mm/yr. The estimated formal errors of these parameters are 0.2?mm and 0.2?mm/yr, respectively. The high level of origin agreement between ITRF2008 and ITRF2005 is an indication of an imprecise ITRF2000 origin that exhibits a Z-translation drift of 1.8?mm/yr with respect to ITRF2005. An evaluation of the ITRF2008 origin accuracy based on the level of its agreement with ITRF2005 is believed to be at the level of 1?cm over the time-span of the SLR observations. Considering the level of scale consistency between VLBI and SLR, the ITRF2008 scale accuracy is evaluated to be at the level of 1.2?ppb (8?mm at the equator) over the common time-span of the observations of both techniques. Although the performance of the ITRF2008 is demonstrated to be higher than ITRF2005, future ITRF improvement resides in improving the consistency between local ties in co-location sites and space geodesy estimates.