Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

流星暴的航天定义

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．     

绿化黄河工程土地资源促进沿黄生态环境建设

1998年以来，国家加大对防洪工程建设投入的同时，也对工程环境保护和建设提出了更高的要求，防洪工程绿化建设已纳入了全国生态环境建设和城市总体规划，是生态建设和经济可持续发展的战略布置。它不仅可保持工程的完整，提高工程的防护性能，为抢险提供丰富的物料，而且绿化黄河沿岸，对改善生态环境，美化黄河景点，建立沿黄景观带，发展旅游观光业具有非常现实而且深远的意义，同时也是将黄河堤防建设成为防洪保安线、抢险交通线、生态景观线的重大举措。     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.     

蜕壳素对凡纳滨对虾生长及表观消化率的影响

研究了外源性蜕皮激素对凡纳滨对虾生长和表观消化率的影响 ,实验时在基础饲料中分别添加 0 .1%、0 .2 %、0 .4 %的两种市售蜕壳素产品 ,制成 6种外源性脱壳素配合饲料 ,不添加的基础饲料作为对照组 ,试验在 2 6 0L玻璃钢循环水养殖系统中 ,每个剂量组设 3个重复 ,8周生长试验结果表明 :市售蜕壳素产品能有效地促进对虾生长 ,试验结束时 ,试验组虾体增重分别较对照组增加 16 .8%、7.5 2 %、5 .9%、11.4 %、2 9.0 7%、16 .5 3% ,但是凡纳滨对虾对饲料粗蛋白的表观消化率没有明显地提高 ,凡纳滨对虾对脂肪的表观消化率较低。推算凡纳滨对虾饲料中最佳蜕皮酮添加量为 6 0mg/kg。     

基于蚁群算法的城市可持续发展综合评价

在可持续发展体系分类的基础上，应用蚁群算法对可持续发展各分类指数公式和综合指数公式进行优化，建立可持续发展评价模型。将该模型应用于乌鲁木齐市可持续发展水平评价，评价结果与现状分析一敛。结果表明该模型简单适用、有良好的通用性。     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

胶辽鲁西徐淮地区新元古代地层多重划分对比

依据岩性组合、古生物特征及地震事件层研究，对胶辽鲁西徐淮地区新元古代地层可作如下多重划分对比：鲁西黑山官组、二青山组分别与辽东的钓鱼台组，南芬组相当，胶东豹山口组可与南芬组对比，它们同属青白口系。辽东南关岭组下部、鲁西石旺庄组下部、苏皖北部贾园组、淮南九里桥组皆为一套砂灰岩组合，都发育第一期地震事件层，并开始含有后生动物化石，为等时地层单位，与其以上各前寒武岩石地层单位同属灯影峡阶，鲁西的佟家庄组、浮来山组可分别与辽东桥头组、长岭子组、胶东辅子夼组、南庄组、苏皖北部兰陵组一城山组、淮南伍山组一四十里长山组对比，归属《中国区域年代地层(地质年代)表》新划分的陡山陀阶。     

无规取向、无吸收非球形粒子光散射的T-矩阵方法

较详细地研究了无规取向、无吸收椭球体粒子的T－矩阵收敛问题。首先，简要概括了nmax的3种收敛方案和它们的基本特性。然后，应用1993年提出的数学收敛方法（M－方法）和1998年提出和物理收敛方法（P－方法）研究收敛问题。结果表明椭球粒子收敛精度对粒子的尺度参数，纵横比以及椭球体的种类（例如，长／扁椭球）有很强的依赖性。当粒子的尺度参数不太大时，甚至在极端纵横比的条件下，P－收敛方案优于M－收敛方案。