国外城市群经济联系空间研究进展

城市群经济联系的复杂性空间规律已经成为城市地理学、区域地理学、经济地理学研究的重点范畴。现代意义的城市群经济联系空间发展研究始于50年代,城市群体化现象大规模出现,城市化进程迅速发展的时期。经过二战前的启蒙发展、二战后-60年代的初步发展、70-80年代的丰富深化、90年代的全面发展阶段,50多年来城市群空间研究领域不断深化、研究队伍不断壮大、研究成果不断涌现、研究范式不断丰富,呈现多视角、多层次、多尺度,理论与实证、定性与定量相结合的研究体系,研究内容上文章着重对国外大都市区、都市带等城市群经济联系的空间组织与结构研究进行总结,并指出当前研究的热点与焦点。     

Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.