水权交易中第三方回流效应分析 ——以张掖市甘临高地区为例

水权交易是提高水资源配置效率和利用效率的有效途径,但交易过程中第三方回流效应的存在是对水权市场的严峻挑战。如何解决这种第三方效应问题是完善水市场、提高水资源使用效率的关键。根据设计的张掖市甘临高地区可能实现的水权交易情景模式,测算了实际水权交易运行中回流效应的大小;设计一种水权交易比率制度,并使用MATLAB仿真模拟平台进行一般水权交易和水权交易比率制度的模拟。结果表明：农业部门内部水权交易回流效应主要受到交易水量规模的影响,当取最大可交易水量30%、50%和80%时,盈科灌区-骆驼城灌区水权交易引起鸭暖灌区的第三方回流效应分别为-5.97×10⁶ m³、-9.95×10⁶ m³和-1.59×10¹¹ m³,市场规模越大,第三方回流效应越大;水权交易比率制度下的用户用水总效益为1.09×10⁹元,比水权交易的初始分配状态用水效益7.51×10⁸元提高3.41×10⁸元。对比表明水权交易比率制度可以在避免第三方回流效应的同时可以提高水市场的用水效益。     

起伏地表下P-SV转换波动校正

P-SV转换波勘探是一种行之有效的地震勘探技术。基于地表一致性假设,P-SV转换波动校正过程中将地表假设为平坦地形。而随着地震勘探向复杂地区的深入,地表起伏大、高速老地层出露的问题,使得地震数据难以满足地表一致性假设。因此,现行的基于地表一致性的P-SV转换波动校正处理方法不能很好地对P-SV转换波进行动校正,影响转换波勘探的准确性。为此,本文从转换波的运动学特征出发,建立了起伏地表下P-SV转换波动校正方程,并构建了起伏地表条件下转换波动校正方法。通过理论模型模拟计算了起伏地表下P-SV转换波动校正方法,结果表明采用起伏地表下的转换波动校正方程能够取得较好的动校正效果,为P-SV转换波速度分析提供了一种行之有效的方法技术。     

城市建筑群地震灾害风险评估技术探索及应用

地震灾害风险评估是开展风险治理和隐患排查的重要手段,在分析研究国内外地震灾害风险评估研究现状的基础上,开展地震工程多学科的交叉研究,综合考虑震源破裂过程、地震动传播路径、场地条件、建筑结构地震响应等因素,构建城市建筑群地震灾害风险评估体系;以嘉兴市为研究示范区,基于设定地震和多概率地震危险性水平开展城市群体建筑结构地震时程反应分析及震害模拟,构建城市建筑群地震灾害可视化分析平台。该项研究旨在探索城市地震灾害风险评估的有效方法,为地震灾害风险管理提供科技支撑。     

Metallogenesis and major challenges of porphyry copper systems above subduction zones

Porphyry copper±molybdenum±gold deposits(PCDs) are the most representative magmatic-hydrothermal metallogenic system above subduction zones with important economic value. Previous studies revealed that large PCDs are generally formed from initial arc magmas(from subduction-induced partial melting of the mantle wedge), which eventually ascend to the shallow crust(3–5 km) for mineralization after a series of complex evolution processes. These processes include(1) the dehydration or partial melting of subducting slab, which induces partial melting of the metasomatized mantle wedge;(2)the ascent of mantle-derived magma to the bottom of the lower crust, which subsequently undergoes crustal processes such as assimilation plus fractional crystallization(AFC) or melting, assimilation, storage and homogenization(MASH);(3) the magma chamber formation at the bottom of the lower, middle and upper crust;(4) the final emplacement and volatilization of porphyry stocks; and(5) the accumulation of ore-forming fluids and metal precipitation. Despite the many decades of research, many issues involving the PCD metallogenic mechanism still remain to resolve, such as(1) the tectonic control on the geochemical characteristics of ore-forming magma;(2) the reason for the different lifespans of the long-term magmatic arc evolution and geologically "instantaneous" mineralization processes;(3) the source of ore-forming materials;(4) the relative contributions of metal pre-enrichment to mineralization by the magma source and by magmatic evolution; and(5) the decoupling behaviors of Cu and Au during the pre-enrichment. These issues point out the direction for future PCD metallogenic research, and the resolution to them will deepen our understanding of the metallogenesis at convergent plate boundaries.     

Origin of the springtime South China Sea Warm Current in the southwestern Taiwan Strait: Evidence from seawater oxygen isotope

Oxygen isotope(δ~(18)O) of seawater is an excellent proxy for tracing the origins of water masses and their mixing processes. Combining with hydrographic observation, hybrid coordinate ocean model(HYCOM) analysis data, and seawater oxygen isotope, we investigated the source of the South China Sea Warm Current(SCSWC) in the southwestern Taiwan Strait and its underlying mechanism. Results show that the Kuroshio subsurface water(KSSW) can intrude the continental slope in the southwestern Taiwan Strait, and thereby climb up the continental slope coupled with upwelling. The δ~(18)O-salinity relationship further indicates that in spring, the SCSWC in the southwestern Taiwan Strait originates from the upslope deflection of the slope current formed by the KSSW intrusion into the South China Sea, rather than from the west segment of the SCSWC formed to the east of Hainan Island. In addition, the southward flowing Zhe-Min Coastal Current(ZMCC) can reach as far as the Taiwan Bank(TB) and deflects offshore over the western TB at approximately 23.5°N, to some extent affecting the SCSWC. Moreover, this study reveals that seawater δ~(18)O is exquisitely sensitive to the determination of the origin and transport of water masses as compared with traditional potential temperature-salinity plot(θ-S) and HYCOM analysis data. In addition, their coupling can more reliably interpret the mixing processes of shelf water masses.     

中天山科克苏河地区隆升剥蚀历史——来自(U-Th)/He年龄的制约

天山是中亚造山带重要组成部分,其中-新生代构造热演化及隆升剥露史研究是认识中亚造山带构造变形过程与机制的关键.本文应用磷灰石（U-Th） /He技术重建中天山南缘科克苏河地区中-新生代构造热演化及隆升剥蚀过程.磷灰石（U-Th） /He数据综合解释及热演化史模拟表明该地区至少存在晚白垩世、早中新世、晚中新世3期快速隆升剥蚀事件,起始时间分别为～90 Ma、～13 Ma及～5 Ma,且这3期隆升剥蚀事件在整个天山地区具有广泛的可对比性.相对于磷灰石裂变径迹,磷灰石（U-Th）/He年龄记录了中天山南缘地质演化史中更新和更近的热信息,即中天山在晚中新世（～5 Ma）快速隆升剥蚀,其剥蚀速率为～0.47 mm·a-1,剥蚀厚度为～2300 m.总体上,中天山科克苏地区隆升剥蚀起始时间从天山造山带向昭苏盆地（由南向北）逐渐变老,表明了中天山南缘隆升剥蚀存在不均一性,并发生了多期揭顶剥蚀事件.     

基于瞬变电磁矩变换的快速三维反演方法

瞬变电磁法的严格三维反演计算复杂、占用资源多,在普通计算机上难以实现.本文引入瞬变电磁矩变换的概念,提出一种快速三维反演方法.该方法基于阻性限制（resistive limit）特性,建立包含异常体的三维大地的一阶矩响应正演算法,根据不同约束条件,选择优化的最速下降法实现瞬变电磁快速三维反演.文中通过含异常体的三维大地正演一阶矩与仿真数据一阶矩的对比,验证了快速三维正演算法的有效性,之后在不同约束条件下,利用优化的最速下降法实现了对含噪声的仿真瞬变电磁数据的快速三维反演.结果表明,该方法能够在普通计算机上短时间内较为准确地反演出地下异常体的体积和位置,在瞬变电磁数据的实时解释工作中具有良好的应用前景.     

GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF LATE QUATERNARY ACTIVITY OF MOTUO FAULT IN EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS

Motuo Fault locates at the east of Namjagbarwa Peak in eastern Himalayan syntaxis.Based on the remote sensing interpretation,the previous work,and with the field investigation,this paper obtains the spatial distribution and movement characteristics of Motuo Fault in China,and geological evidences of late Quaternary activity.Two trenches in Motuo village and Dongdi village located in Yalung Zangbo Grand Canyon reveal that the Motuo Fault dislocates the late Quternary stratum and behaves as a reverse fault in Motuo village and normal fault in Dongdi village.Motuo Fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip associated with the faulted landforms,with different characteristics of the tilting movement in different segments.The trench at Didong village reveals the latest stratum dislocated is~2780±30 a BP according to radiocarbon dating,implying that Motuo Fault has ruptured the ground surface since late Holocene.The movement of left-lateral strike-slip of Motuo Fault is related to the northward movement process of Indian pate.     

禹荥泽——古黄河的一块天然滞洪区

荥泽是我国古代的一个著名湖泊,是我国经典地理著作《禹贡》记载的湖泊之一,其产生年代、形成环境及地理位置一直存在着不同的认识.本文以文献记载为线索,通过野外实地调查,从地质构造、地层分布和古地理环境诸方面,对荥阳地区槽状洼地内的湖相地层进行了较为系统的研究,并根据该地层的14C测年数据,认为这一湖相地层是由《禹贡》济水"入于河,溢为荥"的古湖泊所形成,因此将这个古湖泊称作禹荥泽.这个古湖泊实际上相当于当时黄河的一块天然滞洪区.     

Ground motion duration effect on responses of hydraulic shallow-buried tunnel under SV-waves excitations

Although intensive research of the influence of ground motion duration on structural cumulative damage has been carried out, the influence of dynamic responses in underground tunnels remains a heated debate. This study attempts to highlight the importance of the ground motion duration effect on hydraulic tunnels subjected to deep-focus earthquakes. In the study, a set of 18 recorded accelerograms with a wide-range of durations were employed. A spectrally equivalent method serves to distinguish the effect of duration from other ground motion features, and then the seismic input model was simulated using SV-wave excitation based on a viscous-spring boundary, which was verified by the time-domain waves analysis method. The nonlinear analysis results demonstrate that the risk of collapse of the hydraulic tunnel is higher under long-duration ground motion than that of short-duration ground motion of the same seismic intensity. In a low intensity earthquake, the ground motion duration has little effect on the damage energy consumption of a hydraulic tunnel lining, but in a high intensity earthquake, dissipation of the damage energy and damage index of concrete shows a nonlinear growth trend accompanied by the increase of ground motion duration, which has a great influence on the deformation and stress of hydraulic tunnels, and correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8. Therefore, the duration of ground motion should be taken into consideration except for its intensity and frequency content in the design of hydraulic tunnel, and evaluation of seismic risk.