鲜水河断裂带形变累积率及其效能评价

对沿鲜水河断裂带布设的跨断层形变测点水平形变和垂直形变累积率进行了计算,根据结果分析了该断裂带及其附近区域发生中强地震前的变化特征并对其进行效能评价.其结果表明：在鲜水河断裂带上每次地震前震源体附近断层都有一个形变累积率绝对值减小过程;沿鲜水河断裂带如果形变累积率出现低值异常,则未来1～1.5年左右的时间内其附近区域100～300 km范围内将有5.0级以上地震发生的可能;且垂直形变累积率预报效能优于水平形变。     

南黄海绿潮暴发与紫菜养殖的关系

采用现场调查、社会调查和卫星遥感多种手段相结合,调查了南黄海绿潮早期零星漂浮到大面积暴发的时空变化过程,分析了紫菜养殖工艺对绿潮暴发的影响,估算了南黄海不同紫菜养殖区输入海洋的绿潮藻初始生物量,并探讨了主要海域紫菜养殖面积的增长与绿潮暴发的关系。结果表明,受紫菜养殖生产工艺的影响,数以千吨的绿潮藻在短期内被刮落集中输入至海洋,为绿潮的暴发提供了最为直接和充足的绿潮藻初始生物量,其主要来源为竹根沙、蒋家沙和东沙紫菜养殖区。2005年以来,上述3个养殖区的紫菜养殖面积持续扩大,是2007年以来南黄海绿潮持续暴发的主要原因。水温是影响绿潮形成的关键环境因素,4~6月份大量被刮落入海的绿潮藻在适宜环境条件下漂浮和快速生长,并最终形成绿潮。     

盐城滨海港区防波堤建设对水下地形的影响研究

利用双频测深仪和声学多普勒流速仪对滨海港区附近海域进行了区域测深和定点全潮水文观测,通过与以往调查研究资料的对比,分析了防波堤建成前后海底冲淤变化特征。研究结果表明:近20年以来水下岸坡为侵蚀最剧烈的区域,海底平原则处于相对稳定状态;受自然侵蚀的影响,水下岸坡继续向岸内移,目前最强侵蚀区已内移至–8~–12 m水深的水下岸坡;近年来自然侵蚀明显减弱,年均侵蚀速率约为前10年的1/4;受防波堤挡流效应的影响,口门南侧已由往复流转变为旋转流;目前已出现三大淤积区域,其中以口门处淤积最严重,最大淤积厚达3.5 m,已造成口门处水深不足–10 m;防波堤对周边海域直接影响范围约13.4 km~2,最远可达废黄河口。分析认为,防波堤建设是引起港区海底冲淤格局发生变化的主因。该研究为防波堤的后续维护及滨海港区30万t级航道工程论证提供了基础资料。     

论海洋基础测绘数据的质量监控——以浙江省为例

海洋区域与陆地区域自然现象的重要区别在于分布有时刻运动着的水体,而海洋测绘的对象是海洋,其测绘方法与陆地测绘方法有明显的差别。本文结合浙江省海洋基础测绘项目测绘过程中出现的问题,对控制海洋基础测绘数据质量的关键环节进行了研究,从利用3S技术、水位控制测量、水位控制资料整理、水下地形测量、数据处理与数据入库等方面提出了方法,为基础海洋测绘项目更好地实施作准备,给类似项目的实施提供参考。     

origin of the mud volcano in northern tianshan constrained by geochemical investigation

Mud volcano is a kind of structural geological phenomena under certain hydrogeological environment and can bring plenty of valuable information to the ground when it erupts, therefore, many researchers call it as "Heaven granted well" whose depth can be up to 12km. Mud volcanoes in Xinjiang are distributed in the central-west region of North Tianshan, and five of them are representative, namely, Horgus, Dushanzi, Wenquan, Poplar valley, and Sailetike. We tested the gas, fluid and solid components of these mud volcanoes through investigations and studies of topography and geomorphology, geological and hydrogeological conditions, and mud debris characteristics, and preliminary obtained the origin of these mud volcanoes based on geochemical features. Finally, the paper describes briefly that the continuous enchancement of regional crustal tectonic stress can not only give rise to the seismogenesis and earthquake occurrence, but also break the original cycle of mud volcano to bring about significant activity, therefore, the two have a certain homology relationship.     

基于DEM-NDVI的高山植被带定量刻划

根据不同高山植被类型具有不同归一化植被指数响应的特点,通过对NDVI的分析来定量刻划高山植被带的海拔分布。首先,利用DEM、NDVI构建DEM-NDVI散点分布图;然后,结合地面调查资料与WorldView-2高分遥感影像对DEM-NDVI散点分布图进行统计回归分析;最后,利用分析结果定量刻划高山植被垂直分带结构。将该方法应用于四川卧龙大熊猫保护区的卧龙关沟,结果表明：① NDVI随海拔升高而呈“Z”字形变化;② DEM-NDVI散点图比样本点DEM-NDVI分布图能更完全地表达高山植被NDVI随高程变化的特征;③ 卧龙关沟东北坡高山植被带海拔高度为3255~4415 m,西南坡高山植被带海拔高度为3193~4473 m,与地面调查得到的区域代表植被的分布高度基本一致。     

Spatial-temporal pattern changes of main agriculture natural disasters in China during 1990-2011

China is a disaster prone country, and a comprehensive understanding of change of disasters is very important for China’s agricultural development. In this study, statistical techniques and geographic information system tools are employed to quantify the main agriculture disasters changes and effects on grain production in China during the period of 1990-2011. The results show that China’s grain production was severely affected by disasters including drought, flood, hail, frost and typhoon. The annual area covered by these disasters reached up to 48.7×10⁶ ha during the study period, which accounted for 44.8% of the total sown area, and about 55.1% of the per unit area grain yield change was caused by disasters. In addition, all of the disasters showed high variability, different changing trends, and spatial distribution. Drought, flood, and hail showed significantly decreasing trends, while frost and typhoon showed increasing trends. Drought and flood showed gradual changes and were distributed across the country, and disasters became more diversified from north to south. Drought was the dominated disaster type in northern China, while flood was the most important disaster type in the southern part. Hail was mainly observed in central and northern China, and frost was mainly distributed in southern China. Typhoon was greatly limited to the southeast coast. Furthermore, the resilience of grain production of each province was quite different, especially in several major grain producing areas, such as Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin and Jiangsu, where grain production was seriously affected by disasters. One reason for the difference of resilience of grain production was that grain production was marginalized in developed provinces when the economy underwent rapid development. For China’s agricultural development and grain security, we suggest that governments should place more emphasis on grain production, and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the major grain producing provinces.     

裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法

在裂隙岩体二维柔度张量数值试验的基础上,建立了裂隙岩体三维柔度张量及其表征单元体积（REV）尺度研究的简化数值试验方法。首先根据岩体裂隙的统计参数及分布规律,运用蒙特卡罗方法在研究域内获得与实际岩体裂隙同分布的三维随机裂隙网络,提取位于不同方位的岩体试件,运用二维柔度张量的数值试验方法求出各个平面方向上的二维柔度张量,然后根据二维与三维柔度张量的拓扑关系,用数学方法求解裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。对于含3组正交全贯通裂隙的岩体,通过数值试验获得的柔度张量与理论解相比,其主对角线上各参数的误差在5%以内,表明该数值试验方法较为可靠。最后将此方法运用到小湾水电站工程中,确定左岸坝区裂隙岩体的应力REV为11 m×11 m×11 m,并获得该区域裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。     

公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素研究

基于中国气象局2008年调查数据,运用二分Logistic回归、最优尺度回归和判定树CRT模型分析了公众气象服务支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明：个体因素中年龄与文化程度对公众气象服务支付意愿（包括是否支付与支付多少）有显著影响,而性别因素只对支付多少有显著影响,对是否支付没有显著影响;收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿有显著影响;关注程度、天气预报准确性、天气预报及时性、气象服务总体满意度对公众气象服务支付数额多少有显著影响,但影响程度很小;个体因素与收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿影响程度较高,而心理因素影响程度很小。     

高海拔干旱区湖泊沉积物多指标记录的环境变化研究——以阿克赛钦湖为例

青藏高原西北部湖泊沉积物记录了丰富的区域气候环境变化信息,对于揭示青藏高原西风-季风环流系统变化及其相互作用过程具有重要意义.通过对青藏高原西北部高海拔干旱区典型湖泊阿克赛钦湖沉积岩芯粒度、总无机碳(Total inorganic carbon,TIC)、总有机碳(Total organic carbon,TOC)、总...