An application of the threshold autoregression procedure to climate analysis and forecasting

In this paper a nonlinear method of time series analysis-threshold autoregressive (TAR) model in discrete time is used. The TAR procedure consists of four parts: model building, statistical identification, parameter estimation and forecasting.The object of this study is to estimate monthly total precipitation of Shanghai and Beijing by using open loop TAR model. We can see that the trend of forecasting is in agreement with observations.     

长江口大型桩基码头勘探中的单元体划分问题

由于桩基持力层的岩性岩相变化十分复杂，应用常规的工程地质单元体划分方法时常出现分现混乱、使用困难等问题，现以第四纪地质研究为基础、以桩基工程评价需要为目的，改进了工作方法，获得较好的工程效果。     

1989年7月川东大暴雨中尺度对流系统分析

使用气象卫星资料，分析了１９８９年７月发生在四川东部的４个中尺度对流系统的特征，第一个系统是由３个对流云团合并而成，生成后快速向前移动，第二个为向后传播。第三个系统生成后，系统的西南部不断生成新的对流单体，使之维持准静止状态，最后一个系统的初期呈胞状结构，后与冷锋结合，成为冷锋云系的一部分，这４个系统都是西南低涡暖切变形势下的产物，随着形势演变，其大尺度环境略有差异。     

内蒙地轴南缘盖层中逆冲断层的样式及形成机制

内蒙地轴南缘盖层中,发育了多种样式的逆冲断层,如叠瓦式、背冲式、对冲式和楔冲式.这些逆冲断层都发育在基底断裂控制的断陷盆地边缘,并向盆内逆冲。形成发育的过程是:区域拉伸、基底断裂活动和断陷盆地发育→区域挤压、盆缘逆冲断层发育→盆缘进一步隆起、逆冲断层进一步发育。所以区域拉伸和挤压、断陷盆地的发育和盆缘逆冲断层的活动三者密切相关。逆冲作用主要发生于燕山运动时期。     

岩溶地层水文水井泡沫钻井压力和排量计算

分析了岩溶地层水文水井施工中,泡沫实现平衡压力或欠平衡压力钻井的原理及影响泡沫钻井有效井眼压力的因素,采用迭代法逆循环计算方法,计算井口压力和井口气液排量。     

贵州省矿业开发引起的环境问题及其成因探讨

矿业开发给贵州省造成严重的生态环境问题,主要包括环境污染,矿业荒漠化和环境地质灾害。虽然贵州省矿产开发的历史比较悠久,但解放前的生态破坏和矿业污染仅局限在个别地区,解放后出现的三次大规模资源环境破坏,给贵州省矿业可持续发展带来严重影响,特别是改革开放以来矿山资源的无序开发对环境的危害最重。导致贵州省矿业环境问题的主要因素包括：矿产资源价值的严重扭曲,乡镇企业的超常规发展,部分政府官员的权力寻租,以及资源导向型的脱贫模式等。     

双曲线配合法在某路基沉降反分析中的应用

本文根据哈尔滨某公路路基实测沉降资料,应用双曲线配合法推算了地基土的最终沉降量,并用太沙基渗透固结理论反分析出地基中粘土层的平均固结系数和渗透系数。应用太沙基方法,将反算出的渗透系数计算路基沉降,结果比选用实验室测得的渗透系数计算的沉降更接近实际沉降值。     

Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River basin

A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases.