MJO对2018年华北夏季降水的影响

本文基于华北夏季降水资料和热带大气季节内振荡（Madden–Julian Oscillation，简称MJO）指数、NCEP/NCAR（美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心）再分析环流资料，采用多种统计方法分析MJO与2018年华北夏季降水的关系及影响机制。结果表明:（1）MJO与华北夏季降水有密切的联系。虽然MJO不能移到较高纬度直接影响华北夏季降水，但MJO对流区的气旋会在其北侧激发出反气旋环流，这对“气旋—反气旋对”在缓慢东移过程中，处于较高纬度的反气旋会直接影响华北夏季降水。即MJO会间接影响华北夏季降水，表现为当夏季MJO进入5、6位相时，华北地区夏季会出现明显降水过程，但降水强弱与MJO振幅大小有关。（2）影响机制方面。在850 hPa，伴随MJO的“气旋—反气旋对”的东移，它会造成华北夏季偏南风水汽输送加强（对应RMM1）或东南风水汽输送加强（对应RMM2），从而有利于降水过程发生。在500 hPa层，MJO通过中层扰动向中高纬的传播，诱导副热带高压移到朝鲜半岛附近并加强，对西来高空槽形成阻挡作用，有利于华北地区产生上升运动，从而有利于华北夏季降水过程发生。（3）可以用MJO制作华北夏季延伸期降水过程预报。     

城市时空大数据驱动的新型冠状病毒传播风险评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

2019年末至2020年初新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的快速传播对中国与世界的公共卫生带来巨大的挑战。如何科学合理地评估新型冠状病毒传播风险并制定相应防疫管控措施,是各国所面临的难题,也是科学防治与精准施策的重要依据之一。作为我国最重要的城市群之一,粤港澳大湾区受本次新型冠状病毒影响较大,且春节假期后大量的复工回流人口进一步带来潜在的传播风险。本文面向粤港澳大湾区新型冠状病毒传播风险评估的紧迫需求,结合大湾区多源城市时空大数据与流行病动力学模型,构建适宜大湾区的改进模型,并对新型冠状病毒在大湾区的传播风险和各类防疫管控措施效果进行评估与模拟。首先,引入动态复工回流人口和聚集热点改进现有动力学模型(SEIR模型),对现有动力学模型在不同空间评估单元的传播参数进行纠偏,加强模型在大湾区评估中的适宜性;利用手机信令等多源城市大数据,构建更精细化的人口、疾病流动矩阵和相应的传染病动力学模型,以满足各级防疫部门精细化(如村(社区)级)风险评估的迫切需求。模拟结果表明,相对经典SEIR模型,改进模型在大湾区的传播风险评估中具有更强的适宜性;大湾区高强度的人口流动为病毒的传播带来较高的风险;防疫部门所采取各类管控措施对病毒在大湾区的传播具有较强的抑制作用。     

Morphological response of tidal marshes,flats and channels of the Outer Yangtze River mouth to a major storm

Systematic morphological changes of the coastline of the outer Yangtze River mouth in response to storms versus calm weather were documented by daily surveys of tidal marshes and flats between April 1999 and May 2001 and by boat surveys offshore during this and earlier periods. The largest single event during 1999 to 2001 was Typhoon Paibaian, which eroded the unvegetated tidal flat and lower marsh and led to accretion on the middle-to-upper marsh and in the subtidal channel. The greatest erosion of 21 cm occurred at the border between the marsh and the unvegetated flat due to the landward retreat of the marsh edge during the storm. Strong waves on the flats increased suspended sediment concentration by 10–20 times. On the upper marsh, where the frequency of submergence by astronomical tides is only 3%, Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian led to 4 cm of accretion, accounting for 57% of the net accretion observed over the 2-yr study. Typhoon Paibian and other large storms in the 1990s caused over 50 cm of accretion along the deep axis of the river mouth outlet channel. During calm weather, when hydrodynamic energy was dominated by tides, deposition was centered on the unvegetated flats and lower, marsh with little deposition on the high marsh and erosion in the subtidal channel. Depositional recovery of the tidal flat from typhoon-induced erosion took only several days, whereas recovery of the subtidal channel by erosion took several weeks. A conceptual model for the morphological responses of tidal marshes, flats, and subtidal channels to storms and calm weather is proposed such that sediment continually moves from regions of highest near-bed energy towards areas of lower energy.     

Pathogenicity of vibrios in fish: An overview

Bacteria of the genus Vibrio are ubiquitously distributed in the marine environment. Due to the rapid expansion of intensive mariculture and the consequent deterioration of culture conditions, more and more Vibrio spp. have been recognized as pathogenic agents in outbreaks of vibriosis, a serious epizootic disease affecting most wild and farmed fish species worldwide, which has become the most important limiting factor for the development of intensive mariculture industry. Attempts have been made to understand the pathogenicity of vibrios in host fish with the ultimate aim of elucidating the best means for disease control. After an extensive literature survey of the recent advances in the field of fish vibriosis, the pathological changes, virulence factors and associated potential pathogenic mechanisms, transmission routes and related environmental factors involved in outbreak of vibriosis, as well as the controlling strategies are reviewed in the present paper.     

融入WTO——为农业服务的化工矿产资源发展战略构想

我国直接为农业服务的磷、硫、钾矿资源总体形势不容乐观。针对各自资源特点,应采取不同的发展战略:磷——立足国内,有进有出,南出北进;硫——立足国内,适当进口,调整结构,必要储备;钾——稳定进口,国外开发,国内开发,国内找矿,四位一体,分三步走。为此建议:将磷、硫、钾纳入战略性矿产资源的范畴进行管理和规划;强化地勘队伍,加大找矿力度;增加投入,寻求新的突破;加大“走出去”的步伐;规范进出口秩序;国家在更高的层面进行宏观调控;拓宽为农业服务的新领域。     

南岭地区前震旦纪基底特征及其对铀成矿的贡献

南岭地区是我国很重要的铀矿产地,该区是否存在前震旦纪基底一直的是研究的热点。本在大量野外调查和室内分析的基础上,厘定了南岭地区前震旦纪基底的存在,详细论述了前震旦纪基底地层——寻乌岩组的地球化学特征,分析了寻乌岩组成岩环境及其对铀成矿的贡献,为南岭地区富大铀矿的寻找提供依据。     

城市虚拟现实研究初探

虚拟城市是 3维城市地理信息系统的前沿领域 ,该文对在微机上如何建立虚拟城市作了初步探讨 ,把建立虚拟城市的方法分为 3维真实场景建模、海量数据环境下的场景漫游以及确定任意时刻声音文件的调入时机三个部分。重点介绍了控制三维场景漫游、自适应层次细节模型、简单碰撞检测的实现方法 ,并提出了采用泰森模型调用声音文件的新思路。最后给出在VC 开发环境下用OpenGL建立虚拟城市的应用实例。     

Wide-Field Camera for Gravitational Microlensing Survey: MOA-cam2

We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.     

青藏高原地区能量水分循环：地表能量平衡和湍流热通量

文章给出了青藏高原能量水分循环研究的概况和总结，着重估计了能量平衡各分项和湍流热通量等。在能量平衡的计算基础上，尽管能量不平衡的原因解释仍有争论并且没有解决，但我们揭示了GAME/Tibet试验观测资料中能量不平衡现象。我们发现估算的潜热通量比实际观测的要高许多。然而，根据能量平衡假设的计算结果和SEBS的估算一致性很好。在此基础上可以归纳出差异主要由GAME/Tibet试验观测资料中能量不平衡引起，潜热通量的实际观测可能偏小。     

黑龙江老柞山金矿成矿规律研究及深部矿体预测

阐述了老柞山金矿的成矿地质条件、矿体地质特征,总结了成矿规律。其中断裂构造的交汇部位是矿体产出的有利地段。具体的控矿地质因素为:矽卡岩因素、成矿阶段因素、矿物的组合因素、矿体侧伏规律等。根据上述规律对老柞山金矿的东采区进行了深部预测,将东采区划分为两个金矿体侧伏带,其中南侧金矿体群的侧伏特征指示了220m标高以下金矿体群有向下延伸的可能,北侧的金矿体群在140m标高向上和向下都有延伸的可能。