中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

中国绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化研究进展

绿洲城市是干旱区人类生产和生活的集聚中心,也是人地关系最为敏感的区域之一。了解绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化的研究进展对于改善区域人地关系、促进绿洲城市可持续发展具有重要意义。利用系统综述方法,对研究我国绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化的相关文献进行梳理,在综述已有研究进展的基础上,探讨了已有研究存在的不足并对未来研究方向进行展望。绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化研究的相关文献数量和被引频次均呈增长趋势。已有研究主要在局地尺度上分析了绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制和生态环境效应,关于绿洲城市可持续性和基于区域尺度的相关研究较少。因此,未来应在多个尺度上开展工作,综合研究绿洲城市土地利用/覆盖变化的过程、影响和可持续性。     

Tidal Effects on the Bottom Thermal Front of North Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass near Zhangzi Island in Summer 2009

Three seabed-mounted TD/CTD chains and two upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profilers(ADCPs) in the southwest of Zhangzi Island are used and a simultaneous cruise observation in the northern North Yellow Sea(NYS) is conducted to study temperature variation in the bottom thermal front zone of the NYS Cold Water Mass(NYSCWM) during the summer of 2009. In the flood-ebb tidal cycles, the bottom temperature decreases(increases) during flood(ebb) tides, which are dominated by the tidal-current induced horizontal advection. The ebb tide-induced temperature increase is larger than the flood tide-induced temperature decrease due to seasonal warming. In the spring-neap tidal cycles, the temperature and the vertical temperature structure show notable fortnightly variation from 16 July to 25 August. The bottom temperature increases from neap to spring tides and decreases from spring to neap. The Richardson number demonstrates strengthened vertical mixing during spring tides but enhanced stratification during neap tides. The spring-neap variation in vertical shear caused by tidal current is the dominant factor that induces the fortnightly variation in vertical mixing and thus bottom temperature.     

Time-Domain Full Waveform Inversion Using the Gradient Preconditioning Based on Transmitted Wave Energy

The gradient preconditioning approach based on seismic wave energy can effectively avoid the huge memory consumption of the gradient preconditioning algorithms based on the Hessian matrix. However, the accuracy of this approach is prone to be influenced by the energy of reflected waves. To tackle this problem, the paper proposes a new gradient preconditioning method based on the energy of transmitted waves. The approach scales the gradient through a precondition factor, which is calculated by the ‘approximate transmission wavefield' simulation based on the nonreflecting acoustic wave equation. The method requires no computing nor storing of the Hessian matrix and its inverse matrix. Furthermore, the proposed method can effectively eliminate the effects of geometric spreading and disproportionality in the gradient illumination. The results of model experiments show that the time-domain full waveform inversion(FWI) using the gradient preconditioning based on transmitted wave energy can achieve higher inversion accuracy for deep high-velocity bodies and their underlying strata in comparison with the one using the gradient preconditioning based on seismic wave energy. The field marine seismic data test shows that our proposed method is also highly applicable to the FWI of field marine seismic data.     

Isotopic evidence for the moisture origin and influencing factors at Urumqi Glacier No.1 in upstream Urumqi River Basin,eastern Tianshan Mountains

The stable isotope has been extensively applied as an effective tracer especially in precipitation. In glacierized area of arid northwest China, temperature is widely considered to be a major factor affecting isotopes in precipitation, while the influences of precipitation amount, relative humidity and other meteorological parameters are still not clear. Based on analyses on stable isotope values of water samples and NCEP/NCAR(National Centers of Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA) re-analysis data, the moisture source and characteristics of isotopes in the precipitation, meltwater and river water isotopes at Urumqi Glacier No.1 of the upstream Urumqi River Basin, eastern Tianshan Mountains from spring to autumn during four years(from 2008 to 2011) was studied. Results indicated that meltwater are the main source of water for the upper Urumqi River. Seasonal variation of δ~(18) O in precipitation demonstrated that δ18 O was more enriched in summer and depleted in spring and autumn. Temperature was positively correlated with isotopes, while precipitation amount and relative humidity was negatively correlated with isotopes. The water vapor was affected by westerly air mass and regional water vapor cycle. Meanwhile, back trajectory clustering analyses showed that the moisture mainly from Europe and central Asia. The moisture was more likely to be locally sourced with the ratio was 46.8%～52.1%.     

塔北地区寒武系白云岩储层裂缝充填特征与有效性

塔里木盆地寒武系白云岩储层具有年代老、埋深大、成岩作用强烈的特征,原生孔隙几乎被破坏殆尽,有效裂缝的发育程度是决定储层优劣的关键因素。根据岩芯描述、薄片鉴定、FMI成像测井、扫描电镜、阴极发光、电子探针以及流体包裹体分析等研究手段,开展了塔里木盆地北部地区(简称"塔北地区")寒武系白云岩储层的裂缝充填特征及有效性分析。塔北地区整体裂缝发育,天山南地区与塔河地区裂缝在产状、线密度、形态以及充填特征上存在差异。天山南地区裂缝线密度与有效性均低于塔河地区,充填矿物主要为自形白云石与石英,其次为方解石、石膏与黄铁矿。充填白云石分为3期,对应的温度区间分别为70℃～90℃、90℃～110℃及110℃以上,均为地层内的成岩流体成因;充填石英分两期,第一期为黏土矿物转化蚀变形成,第二期可能为热液成因。塔河地区裂缝线密度高,有效性较好,溶蚀作用发育,是有利的勘探地区,其充填物以热液矿物组合形式出现,主要为方解石,其次为石膏、鞍状白云石、黏土矿物、沥青等,重晶石以交代白云石的形式出现。充填方解石分为4期,对应的温度区间分别为70℃～100℃、100℃～130℃、130℃～180℃及180℃以上,前3期充填为不同埋深时期地层内成岩流体成因,最后一期充填为自下部运移而来的高温热液流体成因。     

皋兰老虎台红砂种群在不同坡向的空间格局及关联性

种群的空间格局是研究植物种群相互作用及种群与环境关系的重要方法。红砂（Reaumuria soongarica）是黄土高原半干旱区的主要物种,通过野外的群落调查,运用空间点格局分析法中的Ripley K函数,分析甘肃皋兰老虎台荒漠植被不同坡向红砂种群的空间分布格局与种内关联。结果显示：红砂种群为增长型种群,其在不同坡向的分布具有显著差异;南坡及西南坡坡向上,红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ级个体在小尺度上呈显著聚集分布,随着龄级及空间尺度的增加,红砂种群聚集强度逐渐减弱,最后趋于随机分布。西坡、西北坡坡向上生长大量的蓍状亚菊（Ajania achilloides）和短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）等对红砂的生长造成抑制并加剧种间竞争,各级红砂种群的分布格局均以随机分布为主。不同坡向上,红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间在小尺度内表现为负关联,随着尺度增加关联度降低,Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级与Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间呈显著的负关联,而Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级之间没有明显关联性,表明龄级相近的个体在空间分布上是相互独立的。综上所述,在黄土高原半干旱区,影响红砂种群分布的主要因素除了其自身的生物、生态学特性外,微生境的影响也十分重要。     

基于椭球不确定性的平差模型与算法

测量平差模型中的参数通常存在一些不确定的附加信息或先验信息,充分利用它们可以对部分参数进行约束,从而保证参数解的唯一性和稳定性。本文利用椭球集合描述不确定性,建立了一个新的带有椭球不确定性的平差模型。以两个椭球交集的外接椭球的特征矩阵的迹最小平差准则,分析了不确定度的传播规律,给出了带有椭球不确定性的平差方法。最后,通过算例验证了算法的有效性,说明了平差解与带权混合估计的关系。     

GNSS-R/IR监测地表冻融状态对延迟多普勒波形和多路径数据影响分析

将GNSS-R/IR技术的应用领域拓展到地表冻融状态的监测中,本文利用冻融土混合介质介电常数模型计算土壤介电常数,采用双站全极化相干反射率模型和随机粗糙面散射模型,分别计算了经冻融土反射的GPS相干反射量的镜像反射率,以及GPS非相干反射分量的漫散射特性。模拟分析了冻融转换时,GPS多路径信息(GNSS-IR)以及包含漫散射信号的延迟多普勒图(GNSS-R)的变化特征。理论研究表明冻融转换过程中,地表介电常数的变化导致GPS多路径信息和延迟多普勒图的明显变化。本文从散射机理上揭示了利用GNSS-R和GNSS-IR遥感进行地表冻融特性监测的理论依据。     

渤海夏季环流的高分辨率海浪-潮汐-环流耦合模式研究

The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.