具有时变参数的门限自回归模型及其在气候预报中的应用

将时变参数模型引入门限自回归模型中，提出具有时变参数的门限自回归模型，并对昆明，蒙自，河口等地区３月温度序列进行预报，结果表明：这种模型比门限自回归模型的预报准确度有明显提高，这是因为用这种模型进行预报时，可以随时更新预报模式。     

Time-space evolution characteristics of abrupt variation of wave velocity ratio in the seismogenic process of recent strong earthquakes in Yunnan area

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AutoCAD向ArcGIS转换的数据丢失问题的探讨

信息时代的到来带来了海量数据,AutoCAD向ArcGIS的数据转换也愈加频繁.二者数据结构上存在着差异,导致CAD数据向GIS转换中会有丢失.本文针对二者数据转换的问题,并根据不同类型CAD图,CAD图的分层设计,探讨分析了数据丢失的具体情况,基于CAD与GIS数据存储类型、表现方式的不同和图形属性,提出自己的解决办法.     

中国省域信息流、资金流强度的空间差异——以2015年京东手机交易为例

以京东七大物流中心及其覆盖范围划分省市群。将抓取得到的京东商城2015年手机交易记录与中国统计年鉴相关数据相结合,研究影响信息流和资金流（简称“双流”）强度的可能因素,重点分析省域层面“双流”强度的空间差异,研究结果表明：① 信息基础设施、经济发展水平等已取代地理距离,成为影响“双流”强度的主要因素;② 广东、北京、上海、江苏、浙江等省市为“双流”核心区;③ 网络资金流量分层现象明显,呈“金字塔”形分布;④ 各省市群之间的空间联系存在差异,北京、上海、广东所在省市群的空间联系明显高于其它省市群;⑤ 各省市群内部成员发展不平衡,中心省市对“双流”贡献力最大。     

基于随机森林模型的咸潮预报

在候选预报因子的基础上,通过Pearson相关系数和重要度指数分别确定了主要预报因子及其滞后期,进而利用确定滞后期的预报因子建立基于随机森林的咸潮预报模型,并应用于磨刀门水道大涌口站的枯水期咸潮预报。结果发现：通过相关系数确定的主要预报因子与含氯度之间存在1~3 d不等的滞后期;考虑预报因子滞后作用的随机森林模型,其预报结果不仅能很好地满足咸潮预报的精度要求,而且明显优于未考虑预报因子滞后作用的随机森林模型,即考虑预报因子的滞后作用能显著提高模型的拟合效果。此外,与传统的马尔科夫链相比,随机森林模型的预报结果不仅精度更高,而且在中长期预报上更有优势。     

The vulnerability evolution and simulation of social-ecological systems in a semi-arid area: A case study of Yulin City,China

Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques at the county scale using the VSD (Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and the SERV (Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions, i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened by the SERV model, and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of the social-ecological systems in Yulin City during 2000–2015 and explored intrinsic reasons for the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City’s SESs vulnerability is “high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall”. Although the degree of system vulnerability decreased significantly during the study period and the system development trend improved, there is a sharp spatial difference between the system vulnerability and exposure risk. (2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of the regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.     

Establishing an Agro-ecological Compensation Mechanism to Promote Agricultural Green Development in China

In recent years, grain production has been rising steadily, and the income of farmers has been increasing dramatically, thanks in part to the central government’s policy support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers. However, the conventional production mode leads to overconsumption of agricultural resources, increasingly challenging ecological environment impacts, and higher costs of agricultural products whose quality falls short of public expectations. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council both put extra emphasis on agricultural supply-side reform, restructuring of the sector, and a shift in the production mode. This paper explains the significance of the agro-ecological compensation mechanism, analyzes the efficacy of China’s current agricultural subsidy policies, introduces related experience from developed countries, elaborates options to establish the mechanism, and proposes policy recommendations to accelerate its development. This analysis concludes that one of the most important approaches to agricultural green development is to shift the existing subsidy policy from one which aims to ensure the yield by purchasing at a protective price, to a green subsidy which focuses on agro-ecological compensation.     

基于ZABBIX气象信息业务监控告警方法实现

本文在贵州省气象信息中心搭建的基于ZABBIX框架气象数据实时监控平台的基础上,主要对该架构监控流程、企业微信告警服务接入等功能的实现进行了介绍,利用ZABBIX的开源框架的企业微信告警接口分别对接本文开发程序模块和睿象云智能告警平台,实现对气象系统监控到的故障进行企业微信告警推送,使运维人员及时发现异常故障事件并对其进行快速的响应与恢复,从而为气象大数据云平台资源的自动化运维提供支撑和帮助,使气象数据故障维护的效率得到大幅提高,以此保证气象数据服务应用的及时性和可靠性。     

香格里拉县湿地分类研究

在实地调查基础上，对香格里拉县湿地分级分类开展了研究，采用了成因分类法，把该县湿地分为湿地系统、湿地亚系统、湿地类和湿地亚类4个等级，并论述了各级湿地的特征。首先以人类活动作用程度为依据划分出自然湿地和人工湿地两大湿地系统。天然湿地中又以地貌部位划分出河流湿地、湖泊湿地、泉水湿地、冰川积雪湿地和其它湿地5个湿地亚系统；最后以水文特征和地表植被类型分别划分出l0个湿地类和25个湿地亚类。人工湿地的划分较为简单，仅根据其功能分为8个亚类。     

内蒙古太仆寺旗卧牛山花岗岩锆石年龄、微量元素特征及其地质意义

内蒙古太仆寺旗卧牛山花岗岩位于华北板块北缘晚古生代—早中生代岩浆岩带中段。卧牛山岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄加权平均值为274.7±1.2Ma(MSWD=0.82),非前人认为的侏罗纪。锆石稀土元素总量为362.67×10~(-6)~1177.09×10~(-6),平均为797.91×10~(-6),各分析点的稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分模式高度一致,富集重稀土元素,亏损轻稀土元素,具明显的正Ce异常及负Eu异常。基于锆石的稀土元素特征,通过构造背景及结晶环境判别图解、Ti温度计,结合区域地质背景及岩浆岩特征分析,认为卧牛山花岗岩为壳幔混源,形成于古亚洲洋向华北板块俯冲的构造-岩浆活动中,是活动大陆边缘的产物,与华北板块北缘晚古生代—早中生代岩浆岩带东、西段二叠纪岩体的源区及构造背景一致。研究成果确认了华北板块北缘晚古生代—早中生代岩浆岩带中段与其东、西两段在海西晚期具有相同的成因联系。