东北地震区地震活动趋势数学建模分析

本文按照活动地块边界带和地震区的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了东北地震区1900年以来Ms4.7级以上地震资料,这样得到的地震资料可能具有一个完整的地质系统性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测,模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取,引用了一种数学方法来描述东北地震区的地震趋势规律。     

The effect of biological soil crusts of different successional stages and conditions on the germination of seeds of three desert plants

Biological soil crusts greatly affect soil surface properties, which, in turn, may alter seed germination of vascular plants. We investigated the effects of two types of biological soil crusts (moss crust and algal crust) at different ages on the seed germination of Bassia dasyphylla and Artemisia ordosica. We also investigated the effects of crust conditions (living crust and dead crust) on seed germination of B. dasyphylla, A. ordosica and Eragrostis poaeoides. The presence of both algal and moss crusts significantly enhanced the germination of B. dasyphylla and A. ordosica compared with uncrusted soil. Crust age had no significant effect on the germination of either B. dasyphylla or A. ordosica for both moss and algal crusts. Germination of B. dasyphylla differed significantly between moss and algal crusts, but germination of both A. ordosica and E. poaeoides did not. Germination of A. ordosica, E. poaeoides and B. dasyphylla was significantly higher on living algal crust than on dead crust and uncrusted soil, while living moss crust enhanced the germination of both A. ordosica and B. dasyphylla but had no significant effect on E. poaeoides.     

土地利用空间优化配置研究进展与展望

土地利用优化配置是实现土地可持续利用,促进区域经济快速发展和环境逐步和谐的重要途径.科学的土地利用优化配置能充分发挥土地利用潜力、提高土地聚集效应、保持土地生态系统平衡.以往的土地利用优化配置研究主要侧重土地利用数量结构的优化,却忽视了土地利用空间布局的优化.尽管土地利用数量结构是土地利用合理配置的基础,但是在地域空间上分布不当,就会限制土地利用效率的提高,影响土地资源配置的科学性和精确性.因此如何将各土地利用类型数量在地域空间上进行合理的落位,开展土地利用空间优化配置问题研究显得尤为重要.本文全面地解释了土地利用空间优化配置的概念,系统介绍了国内外土地利用空间布局的相关理论和方法,并从地理学、景观生态学、系统工程和管理学、地理信息系统及遥感和数学模型应用、社会学和政策学等理论角度,对土地利用空间优化配置的发展方向和趋势进行了展望,以期促进土地利用空间优化配置研究的创新和深化.     

Emergency Seismic Damage Assessment of the M_S8.0 Great Wenchuan Earthquake Based on Remote Sensing Imagery

The fast processing, seismic damage data extraction and loss evaluation from RS imagery acquired immediately after a destructive earthquake occurs, are important means for compen-sating the insufficiency of seismic damage information from ground-based investigations and provide an important basis for emergency command and rescue. The paper introduces the method of emergency seismic damage assessment using remote sensing data and its application to the great Wenchuan earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurring in southwest Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008. The practical effectiveness of the method is also evaluated in the paper.     

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades.The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with MS8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship.Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the...     

汶川地震序列发展的节律及其拟合预测

汶川地震序列的孕育、发生、发展及结束有一个系统性过程,特别在其发展过程中,我们记录到的大量地震活动,它们自身前后存在相互依赖关系是肯定的,但很难用一个确定的关系描述去实现预报。所以,必须对数据加以处理并寻求近似的描述是必要的。本文把汶川特大地震活动序列作为一个动态研究系统,将序列做为节律运行处理,并寻求了逼近拟合的描述来预测其发展趋势。     

Response spectral amplification ratios from 1- and 2-dimensional nonlinear soil site models

In order to determine the effect of geometry on the ground response of 2-dimensional (2-D) basins filled with soils that can develop nonlinear response, we use three basin models with width/depth ratios 3, 6 and 10. The three basins are subjected to a suite of rock site records with various magnitudes and source distances. We compute response spectral amplification ratios at four locations on the surface of the 2-D basins, and determine the average variation of the amplification ratios with respect to excitation spectra, for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 3 spectral periods of 0.2, 0.5, 1 s. Similarly, we compute the average response spectral amplification ratios for two 1-dimensional (1-D) nonlinear models, one having the soil profile at the basin centre and the other having a soil profile at half the depth of the basin. From the relationship between the average amplification ratios and excitation spectra, we determine the cross-over point in terms of excitation spectral values that separate the amplification range from the deamplification range. Our results show that the cross-over point varies significantly from one location to another on the ground surface and from one basin to another, in a range of 0.3–1.1g for PGA. The effects of basin geometry are very strong at weak and moderate excitation, but decrease with increasing excitation spectra in a significant portion around the basin centre. Our results provide some justification for using 1-D models for 2-D basins with a width/depth ratio ?6 if the soil site is subjected to strong ground shaking.     

Nonlinear seismic soil–pile–structure interactions: Shaking table tests and FEM analyses

In this paper, a soil–pile–structure model is tested on a shaking table subject to both a sinusoidal wave and the acceleration time history of the scaled 1940 El Centro earthquake. A medium-size river sand is compacted into a 1.7-m-high laminar rectangular tank to form a loose fill with a relative density of 15%. A single-storey steel structure of 2.54 ton is placed on a concrete pile cap, which is connected to the four end-bearing piles. A very distinct pounding phenomenon between soil and pile is observed; and, the acceleration response of the pile cap can be three times larger than that of the structural response. The pounding is due to the development of a gap separation between soil and pile, and the extraordinary large inertia force suffered at the top of the pile also induces cracking in the pile. To explain this observed phenomenon, nonlinear finite element method (FEM) analyses with a nonlinear gap element have been carried out. The spikes in the acceleration response of the pile cap caused by pounding can be modeled adequately by the FEM analyses. The present results suggest that one of the probable causes of pile damages is due to seismic pounding between the laterally compressed soil and the pile near the pile cap level.     

张北6．2级地震宝昌地震台地电异常特征及机制分析

首先分析了宝昌地震台地电阻率观测值曲线具有的长趋势变化以及规则年周期变化特征,为确定和提取前兆异常提供了正常变化的背景值和参考值.其次,通过去倾、傅立叶去年周期变化以及归一化月速率等方法,分析了1998年张北6.2级地震前后地电阻率异常特征,并利用相关理论尝试解释了异常产生的物理机制.归一化月速率法对于提取、分析短临异常,判断发震时间,较为理想;膨胀流体扩散(DD)模式适于解释宝昌地震台地电异常,而广泛扩容各向异性(EDA)模型适合解释该台地电阻率变化的各向异性.     

海南省“十五”测震台网运行后台站的维护

海南省“十五”测震台网是集数字化、综合化、自动化技术为一体的大动态、宽频带地震观测系统,在地震速报、预报和地震科学研究中发挥重要的作用。本文通过对海南省测震台站故障情况的分析和总结,介绍地震台站维护的一些经验和方法。