Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model

Natural Hazards - We analyze and identify the factors that influence coal price fluctuations and construct a system dynamics model of these factors. The simulation results show that the trend in...     

The formation of porphyry copper deposits

Copper is a moderately incompatible chalcophile element. Its behavior is strongly controlled by sulfides. The speciation of sulfur is controlled by oxygen fugacity. Therefore, porphyry Cu deposits are usually oxidized (with oxygen fugacities > ΔFMQ +2) (Mungall 2002; Sun et al. 2015). The problem is that while most of the magmas at convergent margins are highly oxidized, porphyry Cu deposits are very rare, suggesting that high oxygen fugacity alone is not sufficient. Partial melting of mantle peridotite even at very high oxygen fugacities forms arc magmas with initial Cu contents too low to form porphyry Cu deposits directly (Lee et al. 2012; Wilkinson 2013). Here we show that partial melting of subducted young oceanic slabs at high oxygen fugacity (>ΔFMQ +2) may form magmas with initial Cu contents up to >500 ppm, favorable for porphyry mineralization. Pre-enrichment of Cu through sulfide saturation and accumulation is not necessarily beneficial to porphyry Cu mineralization. In contrast, re-melting of porphyritic hydrothermal sulfide associated with iron oxides may have major contributions to porphyry deposits. Thick overriding continental crust reduces the “leakage” of hydrothermal fluids, thereby promoting porphyry mineralization. Nevertheless, it is also more difficult for ore forming fluids to penetrate the thick continental crust to reach the depths of 2–4 km where porphyry deposits form.     

Seasonal variations of organic carbon and nitrogen in the upper basins of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

The profound impacts exerted by climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau have been documented extensively, but the biogeochemical responses remain poorly understood. This study was aimed at seasonal variations of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in stream water at two gauging sections (TTH, ZMD) in the upper basin of Yangtze River (UBYA) and at four gauging sections (HHY, JM, JG, TNH) in the upper basin of Yellow River (UBYE) in 2013. Results showed that concentrations of TON exhibit higher values in spring and winter and lower values in summer. TOC exhibits higher concentrations in spring or early summer and lower concentrations in autumn or winter. Seasonal variations of TOC and TON fluxes are dominated by water flux. In total, the UBYE and UBYA delivers 55,435 tons C of organic carbon and 9,872 tons N of organic nitrogen to downstream ecosystems in 2013. Although the combined flux of TOC from UBYA and UBYE is far lower than those from large rivers, their combined yields is higher than, or comparable with, those from some large rivers (e.g. Nile, Orange, Columbia), implying that organic carbon from the Tibetan Plateau may exert a potentially influence on regional and/or global carbon cycles in future warming climate.     

干旱区油蒿种群结构和分布格局分析

对宁夏中卫市沙坡头、甘肃古浪县鸣沙咀和民勤县扎子沟这3个干旱区天然油蒿分布区的油蒿种群结构和空间分布格局进行了研究,其中根据大小结构图和存活曲线分析油蒿种群动态,用平均拥挤度m*、丛生指数(I)、聚块性指标(m*/m)、Cassie指标(CA)、扩散系数C、负二项分布中的K指标来判断格局类型并且根据双项轨迹方差法来分析格局规模。结果表明,沙坡头和扎子沟油蒿种群处于稳定阶段,鸣沙咀固定沙地和半固定沙地的油蒿种群处于增长阶段;各油蒿种群的分布格局类型为聚集分布,但是各样地聚集度大小存在着差异,具体表现为:鸣沙咀半固定沙地鸣沙咀固定沙地沙坡头样地扎子沟样地;对各样地种群格局规模的分析表明格局规模存在差异。     

Agricultural effluent control under uncertainty: An inexact double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained model

An inexact double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IDFCCP) method was developed in this study and applied to an agricultural effluent control management problem. IDFCCP was formulated through incorporating interval linear programming (ILP) into a double-sided fuzzy chance-constrained programming (DFCCP) framework, and could be used to deal with uncertainties expressed as not only possibility distributions associated with both left- and right-hand-side components of constraints but also discrete intervals in the objective function. The study results indicated that IDFCCP allowed violation of system constraints at specified confidence levels, where each confidence level consisted of two reliability scenarios. This could lead to model solutions with high system benefits under acceptable risk magnitudes. Furthermore, the introduction of ILP allowed uncertain information presented as discrete intervals to be communicated into the optimization process, such that a variety of decision alternatives can be generated by adjusting the decision-variable values within their intervals. The proposed model could help decision makers establish various production patterns with cost-effective water quality management schemes under complex uncertainties, and gain in-depth insights into the trade-offs between system economy and reliability.     

西宁地震台地磁数字化与模拟记录对比分析

西宁地震台FHD数字化核旋仪从2006年10月安装以来,一直与模拟仪器并行工作。二者采样率不同,所测的量也不相同。在对西宁地震台磁变仪的记录图纸进行数字化转换、生成分钟值的基础上,对FHD仪和磁变仪的观测结果进行对比分析。结果表明:数字FHD仪比三分量磁变仪更加准确地记录了当地地磁场的变化,数字仪器的观测资料明显优于模拟仪器。     

汾渭地震带地震趋势数学建模分析

按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震带的划分方案, 使用Mapsis软件选取了汾渭地震带1000年以来M_S4.7以上地震, 这样的地震资料应具有地质单元的统一性。 使用数学中19阶多项式模型, 对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合, 并递推未来1—2年时间尺度预测。 模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取。 引用一种数学方法来描述汾渭地震带的地震趋势规律。     

安徽省震中快速定位查询系统

基于VB6.0软件开发平台,以MapInfo GIS软件为数据支撑平台,建立了安徽省震中快速定位查询系统。系统主要实现了震中快速定位查询显示功能、基于GIS数据的空间分析和定量计算分析功能。为地震应急响应提供辅助决策,为震后资源调度、伤员输送、人员疏散等提供科学信息,提高了应急救援的效率。     

风切变对飞行的影响及其预报时效分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和AMDAR资料,对2008年11月1日首都机场冷锋过境前后风切变现象及其可预报时效进行分析。分析认为:在冷锋过境前后,首都机场存在多种形式的风切变,有高空槽前后的水平风切变、高层和中层急流轴引起的水平风切变、冷锋前逆温层顶上下的水平风切变和地面锋面过境时跑道面上的水平和侧风切变。对各种风切变的可预报时效进行了分析。