长江三角洲地区水和热通量的时空变化特征及影响因子

文中利用改进的K B模式和牛顿扩散方法及 196 1年以来的长江三角洲 (2 8～ 33°N ,118～ 12 3°E)地区的 4 8个测站的常规气象资料 ,估计了该地区近 4 0a来的蒸散量和感热通量。结合该地区的气温、太阳辐射等气候资料和 196 0年以来该区域土地资源利用变化等有关信息对该地区的潜热通量和感热通量的时 空间变化特征及其可能成因进行了综合分析。结果认为该地区自 2 0世纪 70年代开始平均蒸散量有逐渐减小的趋势 ,与 1980年相比 ,1998年区域年平均蒸散量减小了 2 4mm。区域平均感热通量与蒸散量相比在此期间变化并不明显。通过对该地区的云量、太阳辐射及土地利用变化资料分析认为 ,造成该地区平均蒸散量减少趋势的的原因之一是用于蒸发的能量即太阳辐射的减少 ,而造成太阳辐射减少的可能原因为云量及大气透明度的变化所至 ;原因之二是该地区地表覆盖条件的改变。近 2 0a来 ,该地区的水田、旱地及水域面积占总面积的比率分别减少 1.35 3% ,4 .4 4 2 %和2 .5 97% ,而城镇建设、工矿及其它建设用地面积则增加 3.345 %。耕地及水面的减小和城镇及建设用地面积的增加从整体上使区域平均蒸发量减少。     

The thermodynamic influence of subgrid orography in a global climate model

Assessments of the impacts of climate change typically require information at scales of 10 km or less. Such a resolution in global climate simulations is unlikely for at least two decades. We have developed an alternative to explicit resolution that provides a framework for meeting the needs of climate change impact assessment much sooner. We have applied to a global climate model a physically based subgrid-scale treatment of the influence of orography on temperature, clouds, precipitation, and land surface hydrology. The treatment represents subgrid variations in surface elevation in terms of fractional area distributions of discrete elevation classes. For each class it calculates the height rise/descent of air parcels traveling through the grid cell, and applies the influence of the rise/descent to the temperature and humidity profiles of the elevation class. Cloud, radiative, and surface processes are calculated separately for each elevation class using the same physical parametrizations used by the model without the subgrid orography parametrization. The simulated climate fields for each elevation class can then be distributed in post-processing according to the spatial distribution of surface elevation within each grid cell. Parallel 10-year simulations with and without the subgrid treatment have been performed. The simulated temperature, precipitation and snow water are mapped to 2.5-minute (~5 km) resolution and compared with gridded analyses of station measurements. The simulation with the subgrid scheme produces a much more realistic distribution of snow water and significantly more realistic distributions of temperature and precipitation than the simulation without the subgrid scheme. Moreover, the 250-km grid cell means of most other fields are virtually unchanged by the subgrid scheme. This suggests that the tuning of the climate model without the subgrid scheme is also applicable to the model with the scheme.     

北京北部城区 SO2和NO2浓度垂直分布特点初探

2001年1～3月在中国科学院大气物理研究所320 m铁塔10个不同高度(320、240、200、140、100、80、47、15、8 m和地面)使用无动力扩散采样器对SO2和NO2日平均总量及夜间平均浓度进行了观测.结果表明,200m以下高度SO2和NO2浓度较大.北京城区不同高度大气中SO2的浓度1月份最高.NO2浓度1月份和2月份呈现高值.不同高度SO2和NO2浓度与逆温强度有明显的正相关.     

城市大气环境边界层观测试验

城市大气环境边界层观测试验工程提出了城市区域大范围大气污染"空气穹隆"动力过程三维结构,首次揭示出北京周边地形"山谷风"与城市"热岛"效应相互作用对城市大气环境影响的综合特征.试验采用卫星遥感-地面观测相结合的技术方案,揭示北京周边地区污染贡献及其气溶胶远距离输送轨迹特征,提出建立北京及其周边地区点-面结合、卫星遥感-地面观测相结合立体综合监测网的设计新方案.该项目被世界气象组织专家组工作会议评为国际城市大气环境观测优秀示范计划,项目研究成果于2002年作为特邀撰稿发表于美国<环境与健康>(SCI),研究成果在北京市及有关省市推广应用.     

沙漠化:从圈层耦合到全球变化

从沙漠化概念提出伊始 ,沙漠化成因机理的研究就一直成为学术界关注的焦点。沙漠化过程究竟有多少是由自然因素所致 ,多少是由人类活动所为 ,诸因素与沙漠化之间有何内在关系 ,沙尘天气发生发展过程及其诱因等 ,当属地球系统科学应解决的难题。文章从全球变化的角度 ,将沙漠系统视作一种类生命的非线性动力系统 ,指出沙漠化源于地球表层系统各圈层之间复杂的相关与耦合作用 :气候变化是控制沙漠进退的首要因素 ;陆表水持续亏损则是导致干旱、半干旱地区沙漠化发展的直接原因 ;岩石圈构造运动塑造了不同的地形地貌单元 ,奠定了沙漠分布的地理格局 ;人类的不当活动和气候变化引起的生物生产力的衰退及土地覆盖的破坏 ,造成了现代沙漠化的快速扩张。     

Horizontal and vertical components of earthquake ground motions at liquefiable sites

Field observations on ground motions from recent earthquakes imply that current knowledge is limited with regard to relating vertical and horizontal motions at liquefiable sites. This paper describes a study with the purpose of clarifying this emerging issue to some extent. A series of numerical analyses is carried out on a liquefiable soil deposit with a verified, fully coupled, nonlinear procedure. It is shown that the transformation of vertical motions in the deposit differs considerably from the transformation of horizontal motions. Both the amplitude and frequency content of the horizontal motions are strongly dependent on the shaking level or the associated nonlinear soil behavior. The transfer function for vertical motions is however likely to be independent of the intensity of input motions; no reduction in the amplitude occurs even in the case of strong shaking. The results are shown to be in consistence with the laboratory observations on shaking table tests and recent field observations that less nonlinearity exists for vertical motions. It is also shown that the possibility exists for using information on spectral ratios between the horizontal and vertical surface motions to quickly identify in situ soil behavior and liquefaction that are not readily covered by conventional field or laboratory experimentation procedures.     

Transient foundation solution of saturated soil to impulsive concentrated loading

The transient dynamic response of saturated soil under suddenly applied normal and horizontal concentrated loading is studied in this paper. The behavior of saturated soil is governed by Biot's consolidation theory. The general solutions for Biot equations of equilibrium are derived in terms of displacements and variations of fluid volume, using Laplace–Hankel integral transforms. The solutions in the time domain can be evaluated by numerical inverse Laplace–Hankel transforms. Selected numerical results for displacements, stresses, and pore pressures are presented. Comparisons with existing closed-form solutions for the elastic half-space are made to confirm the accuracy of the present solutions. The solutions can be used to study a variety of transient wave propagation problems and dynamical interactions between saturated soil and structures.     

Modelling of meteorological conditions at an urban scale for the PUMA winter campaign

For the winter 2000 campaign of the Pollution of Urban Midlands Atmosphere project, observation and numerical modelling of meteorological conditions over the West Midlands conurbation, UK, was undertaken. Modelling was performed using the regional atmospheric meteorological system (RAMS). This paper presents a comparison of modelled and observed wind and temperature for 25 and 26 January 2000. The RAMS model uses two nested grids with a mesh size of 2 km for the inner grid which is embedded in the outer grid with a mesh size of 8 km. Statistical evaluation of the model results against the observational data of wind speed, direction and temperature at 10 m was conducted. In general, the modelling results are in a reasonable agreement with observation. The statistical evaluation suggests that model performance is poorer for the inner grid than the outer grid as the model uncertainties (mainly mean bias) transfer from the outer to inner one. The low indices of agreement of temperature and wind are mainly associated with the systematic root-mean-square-difference values. For temperature, the systematic bias may also be affected by representation of cloud amount by the model. For wind, the model tends to have a poor performance for calm conditions, as under a stable anti-cyclonic situation local wind patterns associated with topography may develop, although the topography of the region is relatively flat. The results for the inner grid reveal some subtle spatial patterns at a scale smaller than 10 km near hills and valleys with differences in elevation of a few hundred metres.     

Identification of Mining Blasts at Mid- to Far-regional Distances Using Low Frequency Seismic Signals

—?This paper reports results from two recent monitoring experiments in Wyoming. Broadband seismic recordings of kiloton class delay-fired cast blasts and instantaneous calibration shots in the Black Thunder coal mine were made at four azimuths at ranges from 1° to 2°. The primary focus of this experiment was to observe and to explain low-frequency signals that can be seen at all azimuths and should routinely propagate above noise to mid-regional distances where most events will be recorded by International Monitoring System (IMS) stations.¶The recordings clearly demonstrate that large millisecond delay-fired cast blasts routinely produce seismic signals that have significant spectral modulations below 10?Hz. These modulations are independent of time, the azimuth from the source and the orientation of the sensor. Low-frequency modulations below 5?Hz are seen beyond 9°. The modulations are not due to resonance as they are not produced by the calibration shots. Linear elastic modeling of the blasts that is guided by mine-blast reports fails to reproduce the fine detail of these modulations but clearly indicates that the enhanced “spectral roughness” is due to long interrow delays and source finiteness. The mismatch between the data and the synthetics is likely due to source processes, such as nonlinear interactions between shots, that are poorly understood and to other effects, such as variations of shot time and yield from planned values, that are known to be omnipresent but cannot be described accurately. A variant of the Automated Time-Frequency Discriminant (Hedlin, 1998b), which uses low-frequency spectral modulations, effectively separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The experiment also provided evidence that kiloton class cast blasts consistently yield energetic 2–10 second surface waves. The surface waves are strongly dependent on azimuth but are seen beyond 9°. Physical modeling of these events indicates that the surface waves are due mainly to the extended source duration and to a lesser extent to the slap-down of spalled material. The directionality is largely a path effect. A discriminant that is based on the partitioning of energy between surface and body waves routinely separates these events from the calibration shots.¶The Powder River Basin has essentially no natural seismic activity. How these mining events compare to earthquake observations remains to be determined.     

山西北部至晋冀蒙交界地区几次中强地震前4.0级地震活动的研究

对山西北部至晋冀蒙交界地区中强地震前的 4 .0级地震进行了研究 ,得出其特征为异常增强—异常平静—信号地震的结论 ,认为该区某些 4 .0级地震活动似可作为某些中强地震的前兆地震而进行进一步的研究。