基于组合统计降尺度的华西南部地区冬季气温预测技术研究

利用1982—2017年华西南部地区冬季气温和NCEP再分析资料以及CFS模式实时预测资料，通过SVD诊断分析，选取影响华西南部地区冬季气温的同期关键区大气环流和前期海温及OLR因子场，建立预测与观测场相结合的组合统计降尺度预测模型。该统计降尺度预测模型对1982—2017年的回报结果显示：与观测场的空间相关系数较CFS模式原始预测结果有显著提高，多年均值从-0.06提升到0.38，最高可达0.85。同时，此降尺度预测模型可较好地回报出华西南区冬季气温的空间分布型。     

华南飑线升尺度增长过程中的多尺度能量相互作用分析

采用WRF模式对华南飑线的升尺度增长过程进行模拟,利用Barnes滤波将模式数据分解为三个尺度,分别代入相应的能量方程中进行计算,从能量角度研究飑线升尺度增长过程中动能和位能的变化,以及三个尺度系统能量的相互转化.研究表明:动能的变化与飑线过程中各尺度系统的演变有较好的对应,β中小尺度对流的发展对应β中小尺度系统动能的...     

Study on collapse settlement and cracks of core wall rockfill dams under wetting deformation

The safety and stability of core wall rockfill dams during impoundment are threatened by the wetting deformation of up-stream shell materials. The serious wetting deformation not only aggravates the collapse settlement of upstream rockfill but also intensifies differential settlement of the dam crest during impoundment, and then causes cracks on the dam crest. On the basis of the proposed wetting deformation model and its simulation method of wetting deformation, this paper simulated the impoundment process of Guanyinyan core wall rockfill dam and studied the deformation characteristic of the dam during impoundment. In addition, the smeared cracking model was used to simulate the crack propagation on the dam crest, and the crack develop and spread mechanism was analysed. The results show that the simulated deformation can fit the in-situ data well, and the simulated crack propagation is in good agreement with the actual situation. Once watered, the upstream rockfill and core wall have significant settlement, and the whole dam crest has obvious horizontal displacement towards the upstream. It is on the same order of magnitude that the increment of horizontal displacement and settlement at the top of the dam during impoundment. In the process of impoundment, the upper part of the dam tends to deform towards the reservoir area, which will lead to tensile cracks appearing in the rockfill areas on both upstream and downstream sides of the core wall of the dam crest, and the propagation direction of the cracks is basically parallel to the adjacent core wall surface. With the water level rising, the cracks on the downstream side of the dam crest mainly extend vertically, and the cracks on the upstream side of the dam crest not only extend vertically, but also extend horizontally.     

Simplified method for evaluating the response of existing tunnel induced by adjacent excavation

Adjacent excavation may have a negative influence on the existing tunnel underneath. Thus, it is important to evaluate the response of the tunnel due to adjacent excavation. However, there is little report about using the Kerr foundation model to simulate the tunnel-soil interaction. Meanwhile, the Timoshenko beam, which can take the tunnel shearing effect into consideration, is more suitable to estimate the behavior of the tunnel. To simulate the interaction between soil and tunnel, the existing tunnel is simplified as a Timoshenko beam lying on the Kerr foundation model, and a simplified theoretical method is proposed to calculate the response of the existing tunnel induced by adjacent excavation. The proposed method is validated by two field case studies. Results indicate that the predictions given by the proposed method show great agreement with field measurements and it is more accurate to evaluate the tunnel-soil interaction compared with the previous method. The further parametric study shows that the relative position between excavation and tunnel, the ground Young's modulus, the depth of existing tunnel centerline, and length and width of excavation are both significant factors governing the tunnel response induced by adjacent excavation, while the influence of tunnel shear stiffness and skew between tunnel and excavation are slight. The proposed method can be applied to predict the potential risk of existing tunnels induced by adjacent excavation in relevant engineering projects.     

基于MODIS影像的2016—2017年东海赤潮高发期水体时空分布及其气象控制因子分析

近年来,东海区域赤潮灾害频发,对沿海地区的经济发展和海洋生态环境造成了极大的破坏。本研究基于赤潮暴发年2016—2017年夏季MODIS影像数据,采用半经验多光谱识别算法对东海夏季赤潮暴发期的水体类型分布特征进行反演。结果表明,赤潮高发期东海水体类型从近岸向开阔海域呈现浑浊水体 赤潮水体 混合水体 干净水体的时空分布特征。其中,硅藻和甲藻赤潮水体在空间分布上具有相互演替变化的特征。此外,通过对浙江省近岸的大陈站、石浦站和嵊泗站3个站点的气象因子进行主成分分析发现,气温、风速和天空云量对赤潮的生消演替起着积极的促进作用。