我国地震预报的战略建议与思考

讨论了我国地震预报面对的问题和困难。认为只有加强以形变为主的前兆观测 ,才能作出地震的短临预报。目前前兆观测的主要问题在于可信度差 ,应把重点放在仪器探头上 ,只有探头提供的信息“源”可靠了 ,后续的采集、传输、预报的“流”才会有坚实的基础。我国现在建立以形变为主的前兆台网的技术条件已经成熟 ,建议建立全国高精度的高、中、低频衔接的前兆物理信息观测网络。     

Application of transparent soil model tests to study the soil-rock interfacial sliding mechanism

When transparent soil technology is used to study the displacement of a slope, the internal deformation of the slope can be visualized. We studied the sliding mechanism of the soil-rock slope by using transparent soil technology and considering the influence of the rock mass Barton joint roughness coefficient, angle of the soil mass, angle of the rock mass and soil thickness factors on slope stability. We obtained the deformation characteristics of the soil and rock slope with particle image velocimetry and the laser speckle technique. The test analysis shows that the slope sliding can be divided into three parts: displacements at the top, the middle, and the bottom of the slope; the decrease in the rock mass Barton joint roughness coefficient, and the increase in soil thickness, angles of the rock mass and soil mass lead to larger sliding displacements. Furthermore, we analyzed the different angles between the rock mass and soil thickness. The test result shows that the displacement of slope increases with larger angle of the rock mass. Conclusively, all these results can help to explain the soil-rock interfacial sliding mechanism.     

Analyses of egg size,otolith shape,and growth revealed two components of small yellow croaker in Haizhou Bay spawning stock

The geographic al variations in life history characteristic s of small yellow cro aker Larimich thys polyactis,caused by experienced different environmental conditions,have been observed in China seas.Previous studies based on spatial distribution,migration route,and body morphometrics suggested a complex stock structure.In this study,to clarify the source of a spawning stock,we investigated the reproduction strategy and inter-structure of the Haizhou Bay(HZB)spawning stock in the middle Yellow Sea from both egg survey and adult otolith increment analysis.Egg and adult samples were collected from three surveys during spawning season in 2013.Distinct spatial and temporal variations were detected in egg distribution and size,and otolith shape analy sis of adult fishes revealed two morphotypes with different increment growth using random forest cluster.The results indicate the existence of two components within the same spawning stock in HZB from different wintering grounds,and accordingly special protection should be required for this stock given the significance to maintain connectivity between adj acent subpopulations.     

Effects of stocking density on the growth and immunity of Atlantic salmon salmo salar reared in recirculating aquaculture system (RAS)

Atlantic salmon reared in recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) may lead to inappropriately high stocking density, because fish live in a limited space. Finding the suitable stocking density of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS is very important for RAS industry. In this paper, the influence of stocking density on growth and some stress related physiological factors were investigated to evaluate the effects of stocking density. The fish were reared for 220 days at five densities (A: 24 kg/m³; B: 21 kg/m³; C: 15 kg/m³; D: 9 kg/ m³ and E: 6 kg/m³ ). The results show that 30 kg/m³ might be the maximum density which RAS can afford in China. The stocking densities under 30 kg/m³ have no effect on mortality of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS. However, the specific growth rate (SGR), final weight and weight gain in the high density group were significantly lower than the lower density groups and middle density groups. Moreover, feed conversion rate (FCR) had a negative correlation with density. Plasma hormone T₃ and GH showed significant decrease with the increase of the stocking density of the experiment. Furthermore, thyroid hormone (T₃), GH (growth hormone) activities were decreased with stocking density increase. However, plasma cortisol, GOT (glutamic oxalacetic transaminase) and GPT (glutamic pyruvic transaminase) activities were increase with stocking density increase. And the stocking density has no effects on plasma lysozyme of Atlantic salmon reared in RAS. These investigations would also help devise efficient ways to rear adult Atlantic salmon in China and may, in a way, help spread salmon mariculture in China.

     

Preface of “Earthquake,volcanism, and physical oceanography”

Marine Geophysical Research -     

大地水准面高的计算及其在海底地形反演中的应用

为充分挖掘海洋重力数据在反演海底地形中的应用潜力,尝试探索利用大地水准面高反演海底地形的技术途径,并以夏威夷—皇帝海山链拐点所在海区作为反演试验区进行验证。首先采用Belikov列推法计算伴随(缔和)勒让德函数,利用EIGEN-6C4地球重力场模型解算获取了分辨率为1'的大地水准面高格网数值模型;然后通过综合分析反演比例函数和转换函数特点、研究海区大地水准面高与海底地形的相干特性以及大地水准面高本身尺度特征,获得了利用大地水准面高反演海底地形的频段范围;最终以试验海区大地水准面高为数据输入,构建了相应的海底地形模型(BNT模型),并与ETOPO1等海深模型进行比对分析。试验结果表明:BNT模型检核差值在一倍均方差范围检核点数量占比70.60%,相比正态分布更加集中;BNT模型检核精度低于ETOPO1等海深模型;海深模型检核精度随着水深增加不断提升,水深小于1 000 m时,海深模型相对误差出现较大发散现象;计算海域ETOPO1模型精度最高,GEBCO模型和DTU10模型检核精度相当。     

决口海堤水波传播模拟和分析研究Ⅱ:2D传播

应用经验证的SWASH数学模型,分析了海堤决口中心线沿线实测水深分布规律和保护区淹没水量与淹没面积。对不同特征水深进行验证,进而探讨不同波要素对不同形式的海堤决口堤后特征水深分布情况以及波浪传播距离与时间的关系;分析了物理模型试验中海堤决口宽度以及不同波要素对堤后洪水波演进的影响;计算了不同决口深度和宽度对洪水波传播的影响,建立堤后水体淹没水量和淹没面积分布公式。成果可供我国沿海城市和地区在风暴潮和台风浪作用下海堤决口风险图绘制参考。     

Changes in air pollutants during the COVID-19 lockdown in Beijing:Insights from a machine-learning technique and implications for future control policy

基于2015-2020年北京35个环境空气站和20个气象站观测资料,应用机器学习方法(随机森林算法)分离了气象条件和源排放对大气污染物浓度的影响.结果发现,为应对疫情采取的隔离措施使北京2020年春节期间大气污染物浓度降低了35.1％-51.8％;其中,背景站氮氧化物和一氧化碳浓度的降幅最大,超过了以往报道较多的交通站...     

海南典型热带海草床4种代表性鱼类的生长特征及其对海草资源量变化的响应

文章以海南岛新村湾、黎安港和潭门港海草床为研究区域, 选取褐篮子鱼(Siganus fuscessens)、点斑篮子鱼(Siganus guttatus)、四带牙鯻(Pelates quadrilineatus)和细鳞鯻(Terapon jarbua) 4种代表性鱼类为研究对象, 分析其体长与体质量的关系, 并探讨4种鱼类对海草资源量变化的响应。结果表明, 除栖息于潭门港海草床的4种鱼为负异速生长, 其他区域海草床的鱼类均为正异速或等速生长; 4种鱼的体质量生长速率(即异速生长因子b)和肥满度呈现黎安港>新村湾>潭门港的趋势, 并与3个海草床的海草覆盖率、密度和生物量的变化趋势一致; 推测海草资源量下降可能增加鱼类的被捕食压力和减少食物来源, 从而导致生活于海草床的代表性鱼类生长速率下降。     

南海开放共享航次关键科学问题的思考——从多尺度海洋动力学角度出发

南海是西太平洋最大的边缘海, 通过一系列的海峡与西太平洋和印度洋相联通, 其不同时空尺度的海洋环流动力过程及其生态环境效应是南海区域海洋学研究的重要内容。自20世纪50年代末全国第一次海洋普查开始, 我国对海洋调查的支持力度不断加大, 以科学考察船为代表的海洋科学观测平台建设不断加强; 进入新千年以来, 国内海洋科考船依托的各主要研究所和院校本着开放的理念, 先后组织多单位联合进行海上观测。尤其是最近10年, 国家自然科学基金委员会支持实施了船时共享航次计划, 进一步促进了国内海洋界的交流和合作, 南海区域海洋学的相关研究取得了很多重要的成果。从多尺度环流动力学的角度出发, 本文简要回顾了南海海洋观测的发展历程, 并初步总结了近些年来南海关键科学问题的研究进展, 包括南海和西太平洋的水体交换过程、南海中小尺度过程、多尺度相互作用及其生态环境效应等; 并且在现有的研究基础上, 对未来南海的观测和科学问题提出若干思考与展望。