首都圈年累积释放地震能量的拓扑预测

拓补预测实际上是ＧＭ（１，１）模型群的预测。将首都圈年累积释放地震能量的统计结果作为建模的基本数据，建立相应的拓扑预测模型，对２０００年以前首都圈年累积释放地震能量的发展趋势作出初步预测。     

Identification of Fei-Tsui arch dam from both ambient and seismic response data

This purpose of this paper is to study the dynamic characteristics of the Fei-Tsui arch dam using the seismic response data and the ambient vibration data. For the identification of dam properties from seismic response data, the multiple inputs from the abutment of the dam to represent the nonuniform excitations of seismic input motion are considered, and the ARX model is applied using the discrete-time linear filtering approach with least-squares approximation to identify the dynamic characteristics of the dam. The system modal dampings, natural frequencies and frequency response functions are identified. A comparison of the identified modal parameters is made among different seismic events. Post-earthquake safety evaluation of the dam can be made based on the identified model. Finally, the ambient vibration test of the dam is performed to identify the mode shapes along the dam crest.     

Inversion ofQ value structure beneath the Tibet Plateau

A total of 11 earthquakes with 15 Rayleigh wave paths, recorded at 11 broadband digital PASSCAL seismometers installed in the Tibet Plateau by the Sino-U.S. joint research group, were used to determine the phase velocity and attenuation coefficient of surface waves in periods of 10–130 s. The average shear wave velocity and quality factor {ie271-1} structures in the crust and upper mantle were obtained in this region. The result shows the average {ie271-2} is low and there exists a high attenuation ({ie271-3}=93–141) layer in the crust. The depth range of the low {ie271-4} value layer (16–42 km) is consistent with the range of low velocity layer (21–51 km) in the crust. Below 63 km in the lower crust, {ie271-5} decreases with depth from 114 to 34 at depth of 180 km. The low shear wave velocity and low value of {ie271-6} at the same depth range in the crust indicate that the rocks in the range is probably melted or partially melted. According to the shear wave velocity structure, the average thickness of the crust is about 71 km and a clear velocity discontiniuty appears at the depth of 51 km. The low-velocity zone (4. 26 km/s) at depth of 96–180 km may be corresponding to the asthenosphere.     

长江三峡及邻区地震活动的灰色预测

根据历史地震记载和现今地震观测数据，运用灰色系统理论，建立了长江三峡及邻区下一个地震活跃期及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级的灰色预测模型。预测结果表明，下一个地震活跃期将持续７９ａ，活跃期内的最大地震震级不会超过５．２级。这对三峡地区地震问题的评价与防患提供了重要的依据     

地震序列自仿射分形及自相似分形的计算与比较

本用标准偏差法和标度变换法，计算了云南省五个地震区带上１９６５－１９９５年间地震序列的自仿射分形的分维值Ｄ△ｔ（地震时间间隔序列自仿射分形）ＤＭ－ｔ（地震震级一时间序列自仿射分形）及自相似分形的分维值Ｄ０（地震时间分布自相似分形）得到了相应的时间变化曲线，ＤＭ－ｔ～ｔ，Ｄ△ｔ～ｔ和Ｄ０～ｔ。通过相互比较发现，其中ＤＭ－ｔ的随时间变化在中强地震前的反应最为敏感。     

华北山地地貌面与新生代构造运动

华北山地有三期山地夷平面，四期河流阶地面。表明新生代地壳运动具有垂直差异性质。以上升运动为主，平均升幅１７００ｍ，速度０．０３１ｍｍ／ａ。以第四纪为最大。全区新地壳构造形迹可划分为３大类，８亚类和３２个小类。在新生代构造运动中，又划分出第四纪以来的新构造运动和晚更新世以来的最新构造运动。     

A RESEARCH ON URBAN RECREATIONISTS'' TRAVELING BEHAVIORS IN SHANGHAI

I.IntroductionInurbanarea,recreationistscanalsoberoprdedasusersoftherecreationalfacilities,includingparks,shoppingceners,scenicspots,culturalfacilities,enteItairunen,foodanddrinksites,andotherpublicorpnvateleisurefacilities.UrbanrecreationistsmaybedividedlntotWogrouPslocalresidentsandtouristsfrol11otherprovinces,bothusingfacilitiesmedonedabovetodifferentdopees.BehavioralstudyisaspecialstatisticalanalysisthatisbasedonalargeamoUnofdatafromtravelmeasurementandusers'questi0nnairesurvcy.Therecrea…     

曹娥江流域水利工程对生态环境影响的研究

讨论了曹娥江流域水利工程对陆生、水生生态环境的影响,特别是对水环境容量的影响。研究成果为全面评估水利工程的作用,水利工程的兴利除害提供科学依据。     

农田尺度土壤水分的监测

根据田间试验实测资料分析了田间土壤水分的空间变化特征和时间动态变化,探索了监测农田水分变化时如何确定其合理的取样数目,讨论了农田尺度的土壤水分应如何监测,为节水灌溉,提高田间用水管理水平提供科学依据。