Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

Analysis and prediction of household carbon emission in northwest China北大核心CSCD

The economic development, living standard of residents and carbon emissions in Northwest China are lower than the national average. However,with the favorable policies the economic development is being improved and the household living standard is gradually raised up which will lead to an increase of the residents living carbon emissions, and the emission pattern will also be affected. This is detrimental to the fragile ecological environment of the Northwest China. At present, most of the researches on residents' carbon emissions are focused on the eastern and southern regions of China where there are frequent and significant human activities and high carbon emissions, and less attention has been paid to the northwest region, but the increase of carbon emissions and the increase of environmental costs have a more far-reaching impact on the less developed areas. In addition, when researchers pay attention to the prediction of residents' carbon emissions, they usually focus on the quantitative prediction and ignore the spatial pattern prediction, which is not conducive to the coordinated development between regions. Based on the data of energy consumption and consumption expenditure in the five provinces of Northwest China, including Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang from 1997 to 2016, this paper firstly used the direct coefficient method to measure the residents' direct carbon emissions, and the input-output method to calculate the indirect carbon emissions of the residents and analyzes the present situation of residents' carbon emissions in the northwest region. Secondly, based on standard deviation ellipse and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, the carbon emissions of residents in Northwest China were predicted in terms of quantity and spatial pattern from 2017 to 2021. Major results are listed as follows: From 1997 to 2016, household carbon emissions in Northwest China showed a rising trend with an initial slow pace followed by a quick pace. The direct carbon emissions were stabilized in the range from 0. 3 × 108 t to 0. 4 × 108 t,and the indirect carbon emissions reached 2. 38 × 108 t. The spatial distribution of household carbon emissions in Northwest China was generally steady with a direction pattern from northwest to southeast. And the moving trend of standard deviation ellipse was from northwest to southeast to northwest, and the center of standard deviation ellipse moved around the point of (99. 07 °E,38. 19°N). From 2017 to 2021, the direct household carbon emissions in Northwest China reach to 0.543 × 108 t and the indirect carbon emissions are 3. 631 × 108 t by 2021. With the development of the western region in China and the promotion of poverty alleviation,Xinjiang Province had a lower emission than Shaanxi,but it had the higher growth rate than Shaanxi. These factors are all driving the main areas of carbon emission northwestward. The purpose of this paper is to recommend how to coordinate between the population and consumption and the environment, leading citizens to establish the value of low-carbon consumption. © 2019 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.     

张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染与人体健康风险评价

地下水是张掖盆地的重要水资源,其硝酸盐污染尚未得到足够重视。对张掖盆地2004、2015年地下水硝酸盐浓度进行了系统分析,并采用美国环境保护署（USEPA）推荐的健康风险评价模型评估了地下水硝酸盐的健康风险。结果表明：自2004年以来张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染日趋严重。2015年硝酸盐浓度最高已达到283.32 mg·L^-1,17.61%的采样点硝酸盐氮浓度超过GB5749-2006《生活饮用水卫生标准》中饮用地下水限量值（20 mg·L^-1）。研究区人群经皮肤接触途径摄入硝酸盐的健康风险在可接受水平,而饮水摄入硝酸盐的健康风险较高,总风险中饮水途径引起健康风险的贡献率占99.40%,远大于皮肤接触途径。儿童经饮水摄入和皮肤接触两种途径的健康风险均显著高于成人,分别为成人的1.544倍和1.039倍。32.39%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对儿童的健康风险超出了可接受水平,14.79%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对成人的健康风险不可接受。甘州区城区、临泽县北部边缘及高台县城区周围硝酸盐浓度最高,这些区域内所有人群都面临硝酸盐引发的高健康风险,其余区域硝酸盐引发的健康风险相对较低。     

2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布特征及输送过程

利用最新发布的CALIPSO产品,构建了2007-2017年中国沙尘气溶胶的三维分布,并结合HYSPLIT-4模式和再分析数据,探讨了沙尘的三维输送过程。结果表明：中国的沙尘排放源区主要是塔克拉玛干沙漠和巴丹吉林沙漠,沙尘气溶胶出现频率分别为60%和35%。塔克拉玛干沙漠排放的沙尘主要（50%~70%）停留在源地0~6 000 m高度,少部分向东输送至甘肃和内蒙古;巴丹吉林沙漠排放的沙尘则主要向东输送。中国沙尘排放量在春季最大,向东输送最强;夏季,东亚夏季风限制了沙尘向东输送;秋季,沙尘排放减弱,输送强度和夏季相当;沙尘排放量在冬季最小,输送最弱。夏季,沙尘在输送过程中可被抬升至高度5 000 m以上,春季次之,秋、冬季的沙尘主要在低层大气输送。沙尘在向东输送的过程中被抬升并和当地人为污染物混合变为污染性沙尘,华北地区污染性沙尘出现频率高达30%;输送到海洋的沙尘也会与洋面上（0~3 000 m高度）的海盐气溶胶混合,出现频率约为10%。     

湍流度随高度的变化及其对城市宏观地形的依赖

分别构建广州主建成区垂直比例尺为1﹕2 000、1﹕1 000和1﹕500的3个建筑物模型,利用大型边界层风洞,在西北和东南两风向下,基于中性流模拟分析了复杂城市地形下湍流度随高度的变化及其对宏观地形的依赖。结果表明：风廓线指数α与不同高度的湍流度之间的关系密切,利用现有模型,根据4类粗糙度边界层和不同垂直比例尺,可确定相应的湍流度随高度变化模型的主要系数,预测精度高。城市地形下最大湍流度面发育在0~0.2 h之间狭窄的范围内。用湍流度形态指数β来表征湍流度随高度的变化,无论城市屋脊还是平坦地形,随着风程区的延伸,廓线的指数α升高,湍流度形态指数β降低。表明同一高度湍流度值具有由迎风区、丘顶区向背风区增高,沿风程逐渐增大的规律,对地形部位和风程的依赖性强,与来流翻越简单地形时的特征一致。     

晋西北地区表层土壤粒度与地球化学元素组成

对晋西北地区表层土壤的物质组成进行研究,可以明确其物质来源、沉积环境及化学风化特征。选择区内表层土壤（深度0、10、20 cm）及其附近的河流沉积物,进行粒度和化学元素组成测试。结果表明：（1）晋西北地区表层土壤粒度组成以黏土和粉沙为主,且有自地表向下粗颗粒组分含量增加的趋势。（2）常量化学元素组成以SiO₂、Al₂O₃、CaO、Fe₂O₃为主,其余元素含量均较低。化学元素组成模式表明研究区内表层土壤物质与黄土高原腹地黄土有相同的物质源区,黄河河流沉积物对其贡献不大。（3）晋西北表层土壤的CIA值为52.70~57.89,平均54.06,说明它们的化学风化程度较低,处于早期的脱Na、Ca阶段。这是由于研究区地理位置比洛川更靠北,气温和降水量均低于洛川,降水量与兰州相差不大,但是年平均气温和年温差比兰州低。该研究明确了晋西北地区表层土壤的物质组成特征,为区域潜在沙漠化危害防治提供了数据支撑。     

降低受信仪行程开关返程误差方法的分析

由于受信仪的行程开关返程误差较大,导致了运行、射界范围的控制精度不高。 针对返程误差偏大实际问题,研究了受信仪的行程开关工作原理,建立了其工作过程数学模型,采用复合形法开展了参数优化设计。 依据 PDCA 程序,应用因果图分析方法获得影响误差的主要因素,并逐一采取相应的解决措施。 经过验证,其实现了凸轮行程开关的返程误差减小到 0. 5°以下,提高了发射装置运行、射界范围的控制精度,达到了预期的目标。     

Neptune Trojans: a Revisit and a New Membertwo

Up to now, 17 Neptune Trojan asteroids have been detected with their orbits being well determined by continuous observations. This paper analyzes systematically their orbital dynamics. Our results show that except for two temporary members with relatively short lifespans on Trojan orbits, the vast majority of Neptune Trojans located within their orbital uncertainties may survive in the solar system age. The escaping probability of Neptune Trojans, through slow diffusion in the orbital element space in 4.5 billion years, is estimated to be ～50%. The asteroid 2012 UW177 classified as a Centaur asteroid by the IAU Minor Planet Center currently is in fact a Neptune Trojan. Numerical simulations indicate that it is librating on the tadpole-shaped orbit around the Neptune's L₄ point. It was captured into the current orbit approximately 0.23 million years ago, and will stay there for at least another 1.3 million years in the future. Its high inclination of i ≈ 54^° not only makes it the most inclined Neptune Trojan, but also makes it exhibit the complicated and interesting co-orbital transitions between the leading and trailing Trojans via the quasi-satellite orbit phase.     

耀变体在射电波段的偏振研究

利用UMRAO数据库22个耀变体源的偏振数据,根据Lazarian&Pogosyan理论模型分析研究了耀变体射电波段的偏振随波长的变化,得出不同类的耀变体偏振随波长变化的原因。结果表明,与Lazarian&Pogosyan理论模型吻合较好。由此得出如下结论:(1)反常去偏振耀变体源中反常法拉第旋光起主导作用,反常去偏振相对较少;(2)热辐射与同步辐射混合作用,高频波段的偏振度小于低频波段的偏振度(反常去偏振);(3)当被观测波段波长小于吸积盘热辐射对应的维恩波长时,高频波段的偏振度大于低频波段的偏振度(常规去偏振)。     

Retrieving volume FeO and TiO_2 abundances of lunar regolith with CE-2 CELMS data using BPNN method

The volume FeO and TiO_2 abundances(FTAs) of lunar regolith can be more important for understanding the geological evolution of the Moon compared to the optical and gamma-ray results. In this paper, the volume FTAs are retrieved with microwave sounder(CELMS) data from the Chang'E-2 satellite using the back propagation neural network(BPNN) method. Firstly, a three-layered BPNN network with five-dimensional input is constructed by taking nonlinearity into account. Then, the brightness temperature(TB) and surface slope are set as the inputs and the volume FTAs are set as the outputs of the BPNN network.Thereafter, the BPNN network is trained with the corresponding parameters collected from Apollo, Luna,and Surveyor missions. Finally, the volume FTAs are retrieved with the trained BPNN network using the four-channel TBderived from the CELMS data and the surface slope estimated from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter(LOLA) data. The rationality of the retrieved FTAs is verified by comparing with the Clementine UV-VIS results and Lunar Prospector(LP) GRS results. The retrieved volume FTAs enable us to re-evaluate the geological features of the lunar surface. Several important results are as follows. Firstly, very-low-Ti(<1.5 wt.%) basalts are the most spatially abundant, and the surfaces with TiO_2> 5 wt.% constitute less than 10% of the maria. Also, two linear relationships occur between the FeO abundance(FA) and the TiO_2 abundance before and after the threshold, 16 wt.% for FA. Secondly, a new perspective on mare volcanism is derived with the volume FTAs in several important mare basins, although this conclusion should be verified with more sources of data. Thirdly, FTAs in the lunar regolith change with depth to the uppermost surface,and the change is complex over the lunar surface. Finally, the distribution of volume FTAs hints that the highlands crust is probably homogeneous, at least in terms of the microwave thermophysical parameters.