Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m³ water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m³ s^?1. These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m³ s^?1. Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia.     

Reconstruction of the hydrothermal history of the Cu–Ag vein-type mineralisation at Dikulushi, Kundelungu foreland, Katanga, D.R. Congo

The Kundelungu foreland, north of the Lufilian arc in the Democratic Republic of Congo, contains a number of various vein-type and stratiform copper mineralisations. The geodynamic context and metallogenesis of these mineral occurrences remain enigmatic. Currently, the vein-type Cu–Ag ore deposit at Dikulushi is the most significant deposit in the region. Mineralisation at Dikulushi comprises two major styles: 1) a polysulphide assemblage (Zn–Pb–Fe–Cu–As) within brecciated rocks along an anticlinal closure; and 2) a vein-hosted Cu–Ag assemblage. Petrographic and fluid inclusion studies indicate that the early Zn–Pb–Fe–Cu–As assemblage formed from a high-salinity Ca–Na–Cl fluid of modest temperature (135–172 °C). The later, economically more significant vein-related Cu–Ag mineralisation formed from intermediate salinity, lower temperature (46–82 °C) Na–Cl fluids. Weathering of the sulphide minerals resulted in a supergene enrichment with the formation of secondary Cu-minerals.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long‐lived and therefore have a long‐term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long‐term impact is still poorly understood and landscape evolution modelling (LEM) can increase our understanding of different aspects of this response. Our objective was to simulate fluvial response to damming, by monitoring sediment redistribution and river profile evolution for a range of geomorphic settings. We used LEM LAPSUS, which calculates runoff erosion and deposition and can deal with non‐spurious sinks, such as dam‐impounded areas. Because fluvial dynamics under detachment‐limited and transport‐limited conditions are different, we mimicked these conditions using low and high erodibility settings, respectively. To compare the relative impact of different dam types, we evaluated five scenarios for each landscape condition: one scenario without a dam and four scenarios with dams of increasing erodibility. Results showed that dam‐related sediment storage persisted at least until 15 000 years for all dam scenarios. Incision and knickpoint retreat occurred faster in the detachment‐limited landscape than in the transport‐limited landscape. Furthermore, in the transport‐limited landscape, knickpoint persistence decreased with increasing dam erodibility. Stream capture occurred only in the transport‐limited landscape due to a persisting floodplain behind the dam and headward erosion of adjacent channels. Changes in sediment yield variation due to stream captures did occur but cannot be distinguished from other changes in variation of sediment yield. Comparison of the model results with field examples indicates that the model reproduces several key phenomena of damming response in both transport‐limited and detachment‐limited landscapes. We conclude that a damming event which occurred 15 000 years ago can influence present‐day sediment yield, profile evolution and stream patterns. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consistent past half-century trends in the atmosphere, the sea ice and the ocean at high southern latitudes

Simulations performed with the climate model LOVECLIM, aided with a simple data assimilation technique that forces a close matching of simulated and observed surface temperature variations, are able to reasonably reproduce the observed changes in the lower atmosphere, sea ice and ocean during the second half of the twentieth century. Although the simulated ice area slightly increases over the period 1980–2000, in agreement with observations, it decreases by 0.5 × 10⁶ km² between early 1960s and early 1980s. No direct and reliable sea ice observations are available to firmly confirm this simulated decrease, but it is consistent with the data used to constrain model evolution as well as with additional independent data in both the atmosphere and the ocean. The simulated reduction of the ice area between the early 1960s and early 1980s is similar to the one simulated over that period as a response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere while the increase in ice area over the last decades of the twentieth century is likely due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the exact contribution of external forcing and internal variability in the recent changes cannot be precisely estimated from our results. Our simulations also reproduce the observed oceanic subsurface warming north of the continental shelf of the Ross Sea and the salinity decrease on the Ross Sea continental shelf. Parts of those changes are likely related to the response of the system to the external forcing. Modifications in the wind pattern, influencing the ice production/melting rates, also play a role in the simulated surface salinity decrease.     

Sedimentary geology of the Palaeoarchaean Buck Ridge (South Africa) and Kittys Gap (Western Australia) volcano-sedimentary complexes

The two Palaeoarchaean volcano-sedimentary complexes of the Buck Ridge (Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa) and Kittys Gap (Coppin Gap Greenstone Belt, East Pilbara, Australia) have a similar geological setting and age (∼3.45 Ga). The predominantly volcaniclastic sediments are concentrated at the top of these complexes, and experienced thorough, (very) early diagenetic silicification. In many places the silicification process has led to excellent preservation of the primary sedimentary structures. Elsewhere it has resulted in their obliteration or replacement by diagenetic structures. The Buck Ridge chert forms a regressive-transgressive succession, deposited around base level, with lacustrine and littoral marine facies. Deposition of the Kittys Gap Chert was also close to base level, almost exclusively subaqueous, with tidal influence and a regressive sequential trend.     

Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes

Future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) predict an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle throughout the 21st century in response to human-induced rise in temperatures. However, projections of GCMs are too coarse in resolution to be used in local studies of climate change impacts. To cope with this problem, downscaling methods have been developed that transform climate projections into high resolution datasets to drive impact models such as rainfall-runoff models. Generally, the range of changes simulated by different GCMs is considered to be the major source of variability in the results of such studies. However, the cascade of uncertainty in runoff projections is further elongated by differences between impact models, especially where robust calibration is hampered by the scarcity of data. Here, we address the relative importance of these different sources of uncertainty in a poorly monitored headwater catchment of the Ecuadorian Andes. Therefore, we force 7 hydrological models with downscaled outputs of 8 GCMs driven by the A1B and A2 emission scenarios over the 21st century. Results indicate a likely increase in annual runoff by 2100 with a large variability between the different combinations of a climate model with a hydrological model. Differences between GCM projections introduce a gradually increasing relative uncertainty throughout the 21st century. Meanwhile, structural differences between applied hydrological models still contribute to a third of the total uncertainty in late 21st century runoff projections and differences between the two emission scenarios are marginal.     

Strengthening bottom-up and top-down climate governance

Although the UN and EU focus their climate policies on the prevention of a 2 °C global mean temperature rise, it has been estimated that a rise of at least 4?°C is more likely. Given the political climate of inaction, there is a need to instigate a bottom-up approach so as to build domestic support for future climate treaties, empower citizens, and motivate leaders to take action. A review is provided of the predominant top-down cap-and-trade policies in place – the Kyoto Protocol and EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) – with a focus on the grandfathering of emissions entitlements and the possibility of offsetting emissions. These policies are evaluated according to two criteria of justice and it is concluded that they fail to satisfy them. Some suggestions as to how the EU ETS can be improved so as to enable robust climate action are also offered.

Policy relevance

The current supranational climate policy has not been successful and global leaders have postponed the adoption of a meaningful successor to the Kyoto Protocol. In view of this inaction, bottom-up approaches with regard to climate policy should be further developed. It is argued that two of the main top-down policies, grandfathering and offsetting, impede the avowed goals of EU climate policy and pose significant ethical dilemmas with regard to participatory and intergenerational justice. In order to provide a more robust EU climate policy, the EU should inter alia provide a long-term perspective for investors, reduce the volatility of the carbon price, and prepare for the possibility of carbon leakage.     

Contribution of occult precipitation to the water balance of páramo ecosystems in the Colombian Andes

Páramos are high‐altitudinal neotropical ecosystems located in the upper regions of the northern Andes. Their hydrology is characterized by an extraordinarily high run‐off ratio. One major contributing mechanism is thought to be fog occurrence, which is common in the páramos and occurs by the cooling of near‐surface moist air, as it is forced to higher elevations by topography. However, field‐based observations and quantification of this flux are rare. We present results of monitoring of occult precipitation, understood as the combination of fog and drizzle inputs, combined with meteorological and soil moisture monitoring for periods between 7 to 17 months in 6 sites distributed over 3 páramos catchments in Colombia: three sites in Romerales (Quindío), two in Chingaza (Cundinamarca), and one in Belmira (Antioquia). Occult precipitation inputs were measured with cylindrical fog gauges with a cover on top. We estimate occult precipitation inputs to add between 7% and 28% to rainfall inputs in the study sites. Our results also show that occult precipitation has a large temporal and spatial variability, both within one site and between sites, which make it difficult to upscale and quantify at a catchment scale. Nevertheless, occult precipitation can be important for downstream water supply given that these inputs are especially concentrated during periods with low rainfall. Lastly, we also find evidence for an increase in soil moisture related to occult precipitation during a dry period in Romerales páramo.     

Silicon isotope and trace element constraints on the origin of ∼3.5 Ga cherts: Implications for Early Archaean marine environments

Silicon (Si) isotope variability in Precambrian chert deposits is significant, but proposed explanations for the observed heterogeneity are incomplete in terms of silica provenance and fractionation mechanisms involved. To address these issues we investigated Si isotope systematics, in conjunction with geochemical and mineralogical data, in three well-characterised and approximately contemporaneous, ∼3.5 Ga chert units from the Pilbara greenstone terrane (Western Australia).We show that Si isotope variation in these cherts is large (−2.4‰ to +1.3‰) and was induced by near-surface processes that were controlled by ambient conditions. Cherts that formed by chemical precipitation of silica show the largest spread in δ³⁰Si (−2.4‰ to +0.6‰) and are characterised by positive Eu, La and Y anomalies and overall depletions in lithophile trace elements. Silicon isotope systematics in these orthochemical deposits are explained by (1) mixing between hydrothermal fluids and seawater, and/or (2) fractionation of hydrothermal fluids by subsurface losses of silica due to conductive cooling. Rayleigh-type fractionation of hydrothermal fluids was largely controlled by temperature differences between these fluids and seawater. Lamina-scale Si isotope heterogeneity within individual chemical chert samples up to 2.2‰ is considered to reflect the dynamic nature of hydrothermal activity. Silicified volcanogenic sediments lack diagnostic REE+Y anomalies, are enriched in lithophile elements, and exhibit a much more restricted range of positive δ³⁰Si (+0.1‰ to +1.1‰), which points to seawater as the dominant source of silica.The proposed model for Si isotope variability in the Early Archaean implies that chemical cherts with the most negative δ³⁰Si formed from pristine hydrothermal fluids, whereas silicified or chemical sediments with positive δ³⁰Si are closest to pure seawater deposits. Taking the most positive value found in this study (+1.3‰), and assuming that the Si isotope composition of seawater is governed by input of fractionated hydrothermal fluids, we infer that the temperature of ∼3.5 Ga seawater was below ∼55 °C.