Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

Trace element distribution in mineral separates of the Allende inclusions and their genetic implications

Concentrations of the REE, Sc, Co, Fe, Zn, Ir, Na and Cr were determined by instrumental neutron activation and mass spectrometric isotope dilution analysis for mineral separates of the coarseand fine-grained types (group I and II of Martin and Mason's classification) of the Allende inclusions.These data, combined with data on mineral/liquid partition coefficients, oxygen isotope distributions and diffusion calculations, suggest the following: (1) Minerals in the coarse-grained inclusions (group I) crystallized in a closed system with respect to refractory elements. On the other hand, differences in oxygen isotope distributions among minerals preclude a totally molten stage in the history of the inclusion. Group I inclusions were formed by rapid condensation (either to liquid or solid) in a supercooled solar nebula; extrasolar pyroxene and spinel dust were included but not melted in the condensing inclusions, thus preserving their extrasolar oxygen isotope composition. REE were distributed by diffusion during the subsequent heating at subsolidus temperatures; because oxygen diffuses much more slowly at these temperatures, the oxygen isotope anomalies were preserved. (2) The fine-grained (group II) inclusions were also formed by condensation from a super-cooled nebular gas; however, REE-rich clinopyroxene and spinel were formed early and REE-poor sodalite and nepheline were formed later and mechanically mixed with clinopyroxene and spinel to form the inclusions. The REE patterns of the bulk inclusions and the mineral separates are fractionated, indicating that REE abundances in the gaseous phase were already fractionated at the time of condensation of the minerals. (3) Pre-existing Mg isotope anomalies in the coarse-grained inclusions must have been erased during the heating stage thus resetting the ²⁶Al-²⁶Mg chronometer.     

Numerical simulations of the tropical air-sea planetary boundary layer

A one-dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer was used to investigate thermal and kinetic energy budgets. The simulation experiments were based on two sets of data. The first set was based on a ‘typical’ June with climatological data extracted for the oceanic region slightly northeast of Barbados. The second set used data from the third phase of project BOMEX, for approximately the same area and time of year as the first set. Comparison with observations of three simulated elements (viz., sea surface temperature and wind and humidity at 6 m) which are important in determining the near-interface energy transports shows that:

1. the model is capable of realistic simulations of both ‘typical’ conditions, and conditions for a specific four-day period;
2. the model is capable of realistically simulating the differences between prevailing values of these parameters in the two cases (‘typical’ and specific four-day period).

The simulated interface fluxes are those of incoming and outgoing short- and long-wave radiation; transmitted radiation at -0.5 m in the ocean, sensible heat transfer into the ocean and air, and latent heat flux of evaporation. Comparison with observational analyses shows that the diurnal variations in net radiation and heat storage in the mixed layer are realistically simulated. The simulated values of evaporation are consistent with other estimates for both ‘typical’ conditions and specific conditions during this four-day period. The rate of heat storage varies between +51 and -37 percent of the diurnal maximum incoming radiation, and the evaporation varies between +16% and -13% of this term. The non-dimensional transfer coefficients (C _D, C_T, C_q) computed from the model show general agreement with the coefficients calculated from observations in the simulated region (Pondet al., 1971). The simulated vertical profiles of temperature are in general agreement with observed profiles, except in the uppermost portions of the atmospheric boundary layer where deviations of approximately 1.5C occur. Simulated vertical profiles of wind speed are generally consistent with observed profiles, with the largest deviations appearing to be of the order of 0.5 m s^-1. Simulated vertical profiles of the eddy fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum are generally consistent with Bunker's (1970) aircraft-based measurements of these quantities. The time averages of these simulated profiles show regular decreases with height, while simulated profiles for specific hours of the day show intermediate maxima and minima, which are also seen in the measured profiles. The vertically integrated kinetic energy budgets of the modelled atmospheric layer are presented through the four terms of the kinetic energy budget, viz., the upper and the lower boundary drags, dissipation, and potential-to-kinetic conversion. The dominant terms in the atmospheric energy budgets are the production and dissipation terms, with kinetic energy being exported both to the overlying atmospheric layer and to the underlying oceanic layer at rates of about 2 to 6% of the production, respectively. Comparisons between the climatological and BOMEX simulations are presented. The vertically integrated humidity budgets are presented for the two simulation experiments. Under ‘typical’ conditions, the humidity budget reveals an upper boundary flux of about +29% of the lower boundary flux with the vertically integrated advective flux being -59% of the lower flux. For the specific four-day simulation, the upper boundary flux and advection are about +28 and -70%, respectively, of the lower boundary flux.     

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Completeness of citizen science biodiversity data from a volunteered geographic information perspective

Observations of living organisms by citizen scientists that are reported to online portals are a valuable source of information. They are also a special kind of volunteered geographic information (VGI). VGI data have issues of completeness, which arise from biases caused by the opportunistic nature of the data collection process. We examined the completeness of bird species represented in citizen science observation data from eBird and iNaturalist in US National Parks (NPs). We used approaches for completeness estimation which were developed for data from OpenStreetMap, a crowdsourced map of the world. First, we used an extrinsic approach, comparing species lists from citizen science data with National Park Service lists. Second, we examined two intrinsic approaches using total observation numbers in NPs and the development of the number of new species being added to the data-set over time. Results from the extrinsic approach provided appropriate completeness estimations to evaluate the intrinsic approaches. We found that total observation numbers are a good estimator of species completeness of citizen science data from US NPs. There is also a close relationship between species completeness and the ratio of new species added to observation data vs. observation numbers in a given year.     

Actor-Based Design of a Management System for the Elephant Marsh Fishery in Malawi

In Malawi, fishing community user groups known as beach village committees, traditional chiefs, government officers, and fishers are the key players in fisheries management. Fish catch trends at the Elephant Marsh Fishery in southern Malawi are declining. Based on interviews and participant observation, this article uses an actor-based framework (known as Action-in-Context) to unveil the issues that are crucial in devising a sustainable governance system for the fishery. We establish and propose that the key social variables for the design of a three-pillared (locally based, weak, and amorphous) resilient institution for sustainability of the Elephant Marsh Fishery are (i) the social reputation of the leaders of local fishery institutions (beach village committee leaders), and (ii) the power dynamics between traditional chiefs and these local fishery leaders. We end the article by exploring the implications of the findings on the sustainability of the fishery under rising resource pressure.     

Analysis of the Marshall Islands Fireball of February 1, 1994

On February 1, 1994, a large meteoroid impacted over the Pacific Ocean at 2.6° N, 164.1° E. The impact was observed by space based IR sensors operated by the US Department of Defense and by visible wavelength sensors operated by the US Department of Energy. During entry the object broke into several pieces, one of which detonated at 34 km and another at 21 km altitude. The entry velocity of the object is estimated to be 24–25 km/sec. Based on the visible wavelength data, the integrated intensity of the radiated energy of the fireball was approximately 1.3 × 10¹³ joules. Assuming a 6000 K black body and a 30% efficiency for the conversion of the kinetic energy of the body into visible light, we estimate the mass of the body to be between 1.6×10⁵ kg and 4.4×10⁶ kg, and to have a diameter of between 4.4 and 13.5 meters. The object entered at a 45° angle, traveling on a heading of approximately 300°, i.e. from the southeast to the northwest. Calculations using a gross-fragmentation model indicate that the body was most likely a stony object larger than 10 m with an Apollo orbit prior to impact.E T Space SystemsSandia National LaboratoriesOndejov Observatory