Ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area,Korea

The objective of this study is to improve the statistical modeling for the ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area in Korea. The ternary forecast of heavy snowfall consists of one of three values, 0 for less than 50 mm, 1 for an advisory (50–150 mm), and 2 for a warning (more than 150 mm). For our study, the observed daily snow amounts and the numerical model outputs for 45 synoptic factors at 17 stations in the Honam area during 5 years (2001 to 2005) are used as observations and potential pre...     

Estimation of periodicities in hydrologic data

Periodicites in hydrologic data are frequently estimated and studied. In some cases the periodic components are subtracted from the data to obtain the stochastic components. In other cases the physical reasons for the occurrence of these periodicities are investigated. Apart from the annual cycle in the hydrologic data, periods corresponding to the 11 year sunspot cycle, the Hale cycle and others have been detected.The conclusions from most of these studies depend on the reliability and robustness of the methods used to detect these periodicities. Several spectral analysis methods have been proposed to investigate periodicities in time series data. Several of these have been compared to each other. The methods by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll, which are stepwise procedures of spectrum estimation, have not been evaluated.     

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in Cretaceous non‐marine deposits of southeastern Gyeongsang Basin,Korea: Occurrences and origin

A variety of soft‐sediment deformation structures formed during or shortly after deposition occurs in the Cretaceous Seongpori and Dadaepo Formations of the southeastern Gyeongsang Basin exposed along coastal areas of southeastern Korean Peninsula for 0.5–2 km. These are mostly present in a fluvial plain facies, with interbedded lacustrine deposits. In this study, the features of different kinds of soft‐sediment deformation structures have been interpreted on the basis of sedimentology of structure‐bearing deposits, comparison with normal sedimentary structures, timing and mechanism of deformation, and triggering mechanisms. The soft‐sediment deformation structures can be classified into four morphological groups: (i) load structures (load casts, ball‐and‐pillow structures); (ii) soft‐sediment intrusive structures (dish‐and‐pillars, clastic dykes, sills); (iii) ductile disturbed structures (convolute folds, slump structures); and (iv) brittle deformation structures (syndepositional faulting, dislocated breccia). The most probable triggering mechanisms resulting in these structures were seismic shocks. These interpretations are based on the following field observations: (i) location of the study area within tectonically active fault zone reactivated several times during the Cretaceous; (ii) deformation structures confined to single stratigraphic levels; (iii) lateral continuity and occurrences of various soft‐sediment deformation structures in the deformed level over large areas; (iv) absence of depositional slope to indicate gravity sliding or slumping; and (v) similarity to the structures produced experimentally. The soft‐sediment deformation structures in the study areas are thus interpreted to have been generated by seismic shocks with an estimated magnitude of M > 5, representing an intermittent record of the active tectonic and sedimentary processes during the development and evolution of two formations from the late Early Cretaceous to the Late Cretaceous.     

Climate change and resilience of tributary thermal refugia for salmonids in eastern Canadian rivers

Abstract

River water temperature regimes are expected to change along with climate over the next decades. This work focuses on three important salmon rivers of eastern Canada, two of which warm up most summers to temperatures higher than the Atlantic salmon lethal limit (>28°C). Water temperature was monitored at 53 sites on the three basins during 2–18 summers, with about half of these sites either known or potential thermal refugia for salmon. Site-specific statistical models predicting water temperature, based on 10 different climate scenarios, were developed in order to assess how many of these sites will remain cool enough to serve as refugia in the future (2046–2065). The results indicate that, while 19 of the 23 identified refugia will persist, important increases in the occurrence and duration of temperature events in excess of 24°C and 28°C, respectively, in the mainstems of the rivers, will lead to higher demands for thermal refugia in the salmonid populations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

A copula-based multivariate analysis of Canadian RCM projected changes to flood characteristics for northeastern Canada

In the present work, climate change impacts on three spring (March–June) flood characteristics, i.e. peak, volume and duration, for 21 northeast Canadian basins are evaluated, based on Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) simulations. Conventional univariate frequency analysis for each flood characteristic and copula based bivariate frequency analysis for mutually correlated pairs of flood characteristics (i.e. peak–volume, peak–duration and volume–duration) are carried out. While univariate analysis is focused on return levels of selected return periods (5-, 20- and 50-year), the bivariate analysis is focused on the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2 of the three pairs of flood characteristics, where P1 is the probability of any one characteristic in a pair exceeding its threshold and P2 is the probability of both characteristics in a pair exceeding their respective thresholds at the same time. The performance of CRCM is assessed by comparing ERA40 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis) driven CRCM simulated flood statistics and univariate and bivariate frequency analysis results for the current 1970–1999 period with those observed at selected 16 gauging stations for the same time period. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution for flood characteristics and the Clayton copula for developing bivariate distribution functions. The CRCM performs well in simulating mean, standard deviation, and 5-, 20- and 50-year return levels of flood characteristics. The joint occurrence probabilities are also simulated well by the CRCM. A five-member ensemble of the CRCM simulated streamflow for the current (1970–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods, driven by five different members of a Canadian Global Climate Model ensemble, are used in the assessment of projected changes, where future simulations correspond to A2 scenario. The results of projected changes, in general, indicate increases in the marginal values, i.e. return levels of flood characteristics, and the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2. It is found that the future marginal values of flood characteristics and P1 and P2 values corresponding to longer return periods will be affected more by anthropogenic climate change than those corresponding to shorter return periods but the former ones are subjected to higher uncertainties.     

Oxygen isotope anomalies of the Sun and the original environment of the solar system

Abstract— We present results from a model of oxygen isotopic anomaly production through selective photodissociation of CO within the collapsing proto‐solar cloud. Our model produces a proto‐Sun with a wide range of Δ¹⁷O values depending on the intensity of the ultraviolet radiation field. Dramatically different results from two recent solar wind oxygen isotope measurements indicate that a variety of compositions remain possible for the solar oxygen isotope composition. However, constrained by other measurements from comets and meteorites, our models imply the birth of the Sun in a stellar cluster with an enhanced radiation field and are therefore consistent with a supernova source for ⁶⁰Fe in meteorites.     

Effect of highly pervious geological features on ground-water flow into a tunnel

Current practice for estimating water inflow rate relies mostly on analytical solutions which assume a homogeneous, isotropic porous medium around a tunnel. Field measurements indicate that current engineering practice does not consistently make adequate estimate of ground-water flow into a tunnel during excavation due to various factors that analytical solutions do not properly take into account. Among the various factors affecting ground-water flow, the significance of a highly pervious feature located near the tunnel is discussed in this research. The highly pervious feature, which is located near an underground opening and connected to a large source of water, can provide a path for relatively high-head water to the joints intersecting the opening. This paper describes the influence of a highly pervious feature on the ground-water flow regime around a tunnel and the change of inflow rate as the tunnel approaches a highly pervious feature.     

Morphological and genetic comparison of two strains of a Prorocentrum species isolated from Zhejiang coastal water of China and Masan Bay of Korea

In this paper, we examined the detailed morphology of two strains of Prorocentrum isolated from the coastal waters of Zhejiang (Wenling area), China, and Masan Bay of Korea. A taxonomic comparison was made among strains on the basis of morphological and molecular data. The cellular dimensions of the Chinese Wenling strain (LAMB090508) and Korean strain (PDKS0206) were similar and the cells of both strains were of asymmetric and elongated shape. The posterior end of most cells was rounded. Megacytic zones of aged cells were broader with dense tiny knobs. The roundish nucleus was located in the posterior part of the cell. A few irregular shaped chloroplasts were distributed within the cell. The nucleotide similarity of the two strains, determined from the 5.8S rDNA-ITS sequences, was 99.83%. The comparative results of morphology and molecular analysis suggest that both strains isolated from China and Korea were the identical species, Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu.