Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

碳酸盐风化碳汇与森林碳汇的对比——碳汇研究思路和方法变革的必要性

目前,全球碳循环研究主要集中在海洋碳汇以及陆地土壤和植被碳汇,而对岩石风化碳汇仅考虑地质长时间尺度的硅酸盐风化作用,而认为碳酸盐风化在长时间尺度上对碳汇无贡献。然而,碳酸盐相对于硅酸盐有快得多的溶解速度,且对全球变化(特别是气候和CO2变化)的响应迅速,同时由于生物作用和人为活动的影响,使得碳酸盐风化碳汇的能力需要重新评价。最新的研究发现,由碳酸盐溶解、全球水循环及水生生物光合利用溶解无机碳共同作用,即水-岩-气-生相互作用形成的大气碳汇,远远大于之前只估计了河流输运的无机碳汇,其量级与森林碳汇量相当,因此有必要对传统的碳汇研究思路和方法进行某些变革,这有可能为解决所谓的全球“碳失汇”问题找到一条出路。      

Correlation of the Quaternary terrace sequence in the Lower Rhine valley and northern Alpine foothills of central Europe

Thirteen glacial terraces are known from the western part of the northern Alpine foothills between the Lech and Iller Rivers. In the Lower Rhine region of West Germany, a similar number of terraces are capped by interglacial floodloams and soils. Whereas the environment during individual interglaciations did not differ substantially, the glaciations were progressively more severe. The Main Terrace system of the Rhine may be an exception. The duration of the Quaternary, starting at the base of Praetiglian, is estimated at approximately 2 million yr by paleomagnetic dating. The major cold-warm climatic cycles of the earliest Pleistocene lasted approximately 100,000 yr, the same as those of the Brunhes Chron. The intervening Main Terrace system has not yet been climatically subdivided. Correlation with the Netherlands is possible because of an abundance of paleobotanic and paleomagnetic evidence. In the Alpine foothills, stratigraphically useful indicators of warm climates are missing, but analogies in terrace development permit comparison with the Lower Rhine and Danube. The terrace sequence in the Alpine foothills is incomplete, as are those along most of the other rivers in Europe. Some of the older terraces may have been eroded.     

Jurassic strike slip versus subduction in the Eastern Alps

Late Jurassic formations of the Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) contain ample evidence of synsedimentary tectonics in the form of elongate basins filled with turbidites, debris flows and slumps. Clasts are derived from the Mesozoic of the NCA; they commonly measure tens of metres in diameter and occasionally form kilometre-size bodies. These sedimentologic observations and the presumed evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism recently led to the hypothesis of a south-dipping Jurassic subduction zone with accretionary wedge in the southern parts of the NCA. We present new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates from the location of the postulated high-pressure metamorphism that bracket the age of this crystallization not earlier than 114–120 Ma. The event is therefore part of the well-documented mid-Cretaceous metamorphism of the Austro-alpine domain. Thus, there is currently no evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism to support the subduction hypothesis. The sediment record of the Late Jurassic deformation in the NCA, including the formation of local thrust sheets, is no conclusive evidence for subduction. All these phenomena are perfectly compatible with synsedimentary strike-slip tectonics. Large strike-slip fault zones with restraining and releasing bends and associated flower structures and pull-apart basins are a perfectly viable alternative to the subduction model for the Late Jurassic history of the NCA. However, in contrast to the Eastern Alps transect, where arguments for a Jurassic subduction are missing, a glaucophane bearing Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism in the Meliatic realm of the West Carpathians is well documented. There, the high-pressure/low-temperature slices occur between the Gemeric unit and the Silica nappe system (including the Aggtelek-Rudabanya units), which corresponds in facies with the Juvavic units in the southern part of the NCA. To solve the contrasting palaeogeographic reconstructions we propose that the upper Jurassic left lateral strike-slip system proposed here for the Eastern Alps continued eastwards and caused the eastward displacement of the Silica units into the Meliatic accretionary wedge.     

Coral Recruitment and Regeneration on a Maldivian Reef 21 Months after the Coral Bleaching Event of 1998

Abstract. This paper describes the quantitative inventory of stony corals on a Maldivian reef after the bleaching event of 1998. The detailed data, collected in March 1999 and March 2000, comprise survival, new recruitment and regenerates. They were obtained in 6 transects laid out randomly on the reef flat, on 22 Acropora tables on 6 sites at the reef edge and on 39 Porites lobata blocks and 1 Diploastrea heliopora colony. The present cover of living zooxanthellate corals is reduced to ca. 2 – 5 % of its previous state. Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae were practically wiped out, while Poritidae survived partly and Agariciidae (esp. Pavona) are now the dominant group. New settlements on dead Acropora tables were mainly Agariciidae, followed by Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae. Regenerates on Porites were pronounced and the apparent yearly increase in mass was about threefold that of Diploastrea, which is 3 – 4 mm per year. The influence on reef ecology in terms of coral substrate and species, possible sources of larvae, change of guilds in reef builders, other species and the prospect for further development of the reef, with respect to growth versus erosion, is discussed.     

Microbial Degradation of Tar Oil Compounds under Different Redox Conditions

The microbial transformation of typical tar oil compounds such as acridine, benzo(b)thiophene, dibenzofuran, indane, and indene under different redox conditions was investigated in microcosm studies. Under aerobic conditions the inherent contamination in polluted soil as well as the added N‐, S‐, O‐ heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds were transformed predominantly apart from thiophene. 1‐Indanone was detected by RP‐HPLC‐DAD and GC‐MS as an intermediate metabolite from indane and indene. Under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions indane, benzo(b)thiophene, and dibenzofuran were transformed in assays with the polluted soil samples from well B 65 and B 66 within 426 days, whereas they were persistent in assays with the highly polluted soil B 67. All heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds added to the non‐contaminated soil from well B 85 were not degraded under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions, too. The results indicate that for the decision, wether natural attenuation can be implemented in the remediation of contaminated site, in addition to BTEX and PAHs especially the fate of further tar oil compounds in anoxic aquifers has to be considered.     

Infrared spectroscopic investigation of hydroxyl in β-(Mg,Fe)2SiO4 and coexisting olivine: Implications for mantle evolution and dynamics

Wadsleyite (β-(Mg,Fe)₂SiO₄) is a major constituent of the Earth's transition zone and is known to accommodate OH. The portion of the transition zone between 400–550 km could be an important source or sink for hydroxyl in plumes and slabs intersecting this region. Micro-infrared spectroscopy has been carried out on the β-phase and coexisting metastable olivine synthesized in a multianvil apparatus at 14 GPa and 1550–1650 K under hydrous conditions. Single-crystal and polycrystal specimens of both phases were analyzed in the 1800–8500 cm^?1 frequency region to determine the speciation, abundances, and partitioning behavior of the hydrous components in coexisting β-phase and olivine. β-phase spectra consistently show three distinct OH bands at 3329, 3580, and 3615 cm^?1. OH concentrations range from 10000–65000 H/10⁶ Si. A strong positive correlation of grain size and extent of transformation with OH concentration in the β-phase indicates that grain-growth and transformation rates are enhanced in a hydrous environment. Olivine spectra are variable, but consistently show a prominent broad-band absorbance representing molecular H₂O, consistent with the infrared signature of the starting material. OH concentrations in olivine range from <300–1400 H/10⁶ Si. The highest OH concentrations measured for olivine and the β-phase may represent solubility limits, in which case the OH solubility ratio between these two phases is approximately 1∶40. Where both phases coexist and are undersaturated with OH, the partitioning ratio of OH between them is about 1∶100. The large solubility contrast between olivine and the β-phase suggests a mechanism for hydrating the transition zone via olivine carried down in subducting slabs. Plumes impinging on an OH-rich upper transition region could cause H₂ or H₂O to be released upon transformation of the β-phase to olivine, resulting in initiation of secondary upwellings. If dissolution of OH weakens the β-phase, and if OH is present in the mantle, the region between 400–550 km could be a zone of low viscosity.     

Atmospheric superrotation on Saturn and Jupiter

The problem is discussed whether atmospheric superrotation is driven by internal or external torques. An integral constraint is derived which under certain conditions forbids geostrophic flow, and suggests corkscrew-shaped motion along zones of constant latitude. A momentum balance consideration restricts effective viscosities in the upper atmospheres to be much smaller than maximal eddy viscosity, perhaps as small as molecular viscosity.