Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

Background  

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100.     

Long-term Trends in Vegetation Dynamics and Forest Fires in Brandenburg (Germany) Under a Changing Climate

The human influence on environmental processes has been described for many types of land use. One of the oldest tools to modify people’s environment is fire, which has dominated fire regimes in many regions over long time scales. This paper focuses on a German case study region, where 80–90% of the fires are human-caused. The objectives of this study are the application of the Regional Fire Model (Reg-FIRM), a process-based fire model that is incorporated into the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, to temperate forests under historic climate conditions and to explore ranges of potential impacts of future climate change on fire and vegetation dynamics. Simulation experiments are designed to simulate historic fire pattern and to explore influences of vegetation on fire. Simulated fire pattern reproduced the observed average fire conditions reasonably well although with a smaller amplitude. This leads to underestimation of extreme fire years as well as an overestimation of low fire years. Vegetation composition influenced fire spread conditions in the temperate forest and had little impact on fire ignition potentials, except when only broad-leaved deciduous forests were assumed. Fire is likely to change under climate change conditions. Simulated experiments were conducted to explore the effects of climate change and rising CO₂ concentration given the potential natural vegetation as the best-case for Brandenburg. Three GCM scenarios predicting different future climatic changes were applied, and resulted in quantitatively different future fire patterns. Depending on future precipitation pattern and the influence of the CO₂ effect on canopy conductance and thus litter moisture, fire was predicted to either decrease or slightly increase in Brandenburg forests, but the burnt area would not exceed current, extreme fire years. Generally, fire changes had no implication for vegetation composition in Brandenburg, but reduced vegetation carbon gain after 2050. In the HadCM3 application, simulated increase in grass cover due to a large burnt area after 2075 accelerated fire spread conditions, thus still increasing the burnt area, while climatic fire danger and number of fires already began to decline. These interactions underline the importance to consider the full range of fire processes and interactions with vegetation dynamics in a simulation model.     

Nd, Pb, and Sr isotope composition of juvenile magmatism in the Mesozoic large magmatic province of northern Chile (18–27°S): indications for a uniform subarc mantle

The Jurassic to Early Cretaceous magmatic arc of the Andes in northern Chile was a site of major additions of juvenile magmas from the subarc mantle to the continental crust. The combined effect of extension and a near stationary position of the Jurassic to lower Cretaceous arc favoured the emplacement and preservation of juvenile magmatic rocks on a large vertical and horizontal scale. Chemical and Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions of mainly mafic to intermediate volcanic and intrusive rock units coherently indicate the generation of the magmas in a subduction regime and the dominance of a depleted subarc mantle source over contributions of the ambient Palaeozoic crust. The isotopic composition of the Jurassic (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb: ∼ 18.2; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb: ∼ 15.55; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd: ∼ 0.51277; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: ∼ 0.703–0.704) and Present (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb: ∼ 18.5; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb: ∼ 15.57; 143Nd/144Nd: ∼ 0.51288; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: ∼ 0.703–0.704) depleted subarc mantle beneath the Central and Southern Andes (18°–40°S) was likely uniform over the entire region. Small differences of isotope ratios between Jurassic and Cenozoic to Recent of subarc mantle-derived could be explained by radiogenic growth in a still uniform mantle source.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available to authorised users in the online version of this article at .     

Tournaisian age of granitoids from the Odra Fault Zone (southwestern Poland): equivalent of the Mid-German Crystalline High?

The Odra Fault Zone of southwestern Poland is a NW-trending horst marked by gravimetric and magnetic anomalies and composed of high- to low-grade metamorphic and igneous rocks which are only known from boreholes. This zone embraces a concealed border between Variscan internides and externides. It also contains an array of several I-type, metaluminous to peraluminous, high potassic granitoid bodies which intruded earlier metamorphosed rocks. Except for one case, they remain unfoliated and undeformed, and presumably play a role of stitching plutons at the suture between two obliquely colliding terranes. U–Pb TIMS dating of single zircons from one foliated and one unfoliated granitoid samples yielded identical concordant ages of 344±1 Ma (Tournaisian). They resemble a Pb–Pb age of 350±5 Ma obtained for S-type granitoids from the Luckau area further west in Germany, which is generally regarded as an eastern segment of the Mid-German Crystalline High. Carboniferous granitic intrusions in the high are generally younger (340–290 Ma). Correlations of the the Odra Fault Zone with the Mid-German Crystalline High appear plausible, but by no means certain and require further confirmation.     

Water level variability and trends in Lake Constance in the light of the 1999 centennial flood

The extreme flood of Lake Constance in 1999 focused attention on the variability of annual lake levels. The year 1999 not only brought one of the highest floods of the last 180 years but also one of the earliest in the season. The 1999 extreme event was caused by heavy rainfall in the alpine and pre-alpine regions. The influence of precipitation in the two distinct regional catchments on lake level variations can be quantified by correlation analysis. The long-term variations in lake level and precipitation show similar patterns. This is seen through the use of spectral analysis, which gives similar bands of spectral densities for precipitation and lake level time series. It can be concluded from the comparison of these results with the analysis of climate change patterns in northern Europe, i.e. the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation, that the regional effects on lake level variations are more pronounced than those of global climate change.     

Experimental and theoretical investigations of drainage in horizontal rough-walled fractures with different correlation structures

Experiments on the immiscible displacement of water by air were performed in two horizontal artificial open rough-walled fractures with different correlation structures. The aperture field of the first fracture has a Gaussian variogram with a finite correlation length, while that of the second one has a power-law variogram, for which no finite correlation length can be assigned. We simulated the displacement process using an invasion percolation model, which takes the in-plane curvature of the interface between water and air into account. The correlation structure of the aperture field has no effect on the irregularity of the shape of the air clusters. However, the correlation structure in combination with the in-plane curvature influences the density of the air clusters and thus has an impact on characteristic properties of the flow. We analyze the model parameters and properties with respect to the fracture properties. The stochastic average of the air clusters for models with different curvature numbers and fields with different correlation lengths is then calculated in order to analyze their influence on continuum approach models.     

Using remote sensing to regionalize local precipitation recharge rates obtained from the Chloride Method

Water supply in semiarid Botswana is, to a large extent, based on groundwater. In the planning of a groundwater abstraction scheme, criteria for the sustainability of the abstraction with respect to both quantity and quality have to be satisfied. The most important parameter in the context of quantitative sustainability is the long-term average groundwater recharge together with its spatial distribution. A method is developed to calculate a recharge map that can be used in a groundwater model. The relative distribution of recharge is obtained from remotely sensed data and then calibrated with local values of recharge derived from the Chloride Method. The method was tested for two sites in Botswana, the Chobe Region and Ngamiland.     

Optimisation of the Operation of an Electrochemical Process To Treat TBT‐contaminated Sediments on a Pilot Scale

Since at least three decades tributyltin had been commonly used in paint formulations to protect ship hulls and submersed surfaces from fouling. This has resulted in negative and Technology, effects to the marine environment due to its high toxicity towards non‐target organisms and to its accumulation in sediments, especially near point sources of pollution. Even if a ban of TBT for its application in anti‐fouling paints is enforced the problem of TBT‐contaminated sediments will remain for the coming years due to the low degradation rates of organotin in sediments. In this work an electrochemical process at a pilot scale to destroy TBT in sediments was investigated. Previous experiences at a laboratory and technical scale have demonstrated the potential of this process to electrolytically degrade organotin species in sediments. This article deals with the optimisation of the pilot plant performance in terms of organotin degradation and operation costs monitoring additionally the effect of the electrochemical treatment on other pollutants such as heavy metals, PCBs, and PAHs. The aim was to investigate by means of a parametric study the range of operating conditions required to destroy TBT down to concentrations lower than 100 μg/kg; to determine the influence of those parameters on the performance of the process; and to evaluate the operation costs associated to the process. It was determined that it was possible to destroy TBT down to 100 μg/kg at current densities in the range of 4.4 to 6.6 mA/cm² and chloride concentrations of least of 0.2 mol/L with operation costs of 13 to 18 EUR/m³.     

Three-dimensional modelling of an isolated carbonate buildup (Triassic, Dolomites, Italy)

The Middle Triassic carbonate buildups of the Dolomites show facies similarities with mud mounds but display apparent architectural elements of flat‐topped carbonate platforms. In order to test whether the facies similarities to mounds are also reflected in the internal buildup architecture, a three‐dimensional modelling study of the Middle Triassic Monte Cernera buildup has been carried out. The Cernera buildup exhibits apparent geometries suggesting a mounded platform in the lower and uppermost part of the buildup, separated by an interval with apparent platform geometry and a retrogradational platform interior, which is difficult to explain with a flat top platform model. For this purpose, a number of three‐dimensional models were constructed using the three‐dimensional modelling programme petrel ^TM. Key geological horizons were constructed based on outcrop measurements, intermediate horizons were calculated in the modelling program, and the intersections of the modelled layers with a digital topography surface were displayed and compared with outcrop photographs. The models were refined stepwise until a best fit with the actual bedding architecture was achieved. The best fit model shows that the mounded geometries in the lower and uppermost part of the buildup are real architectural elements. The intermediate platform stage, about 1·5 km across, had probably retained a mounded top with a relief of up to 50 m, which is difficult to distinguish from an absolutely flat top, but necessary to explain the retrogradational platform interior. The present study shows that Monte Cernera was dominated by mounded geometries at all stages of platform development. The mounded geometry plus facies data suggest that the platform is a deep‐water accumulation, below the zone of intense wave energy, but within the photic zone. The Cernera represents a tropical buildup type, which did not have the capacity to grow into continuously wave‐swept environments because of the small size and the absence of a wave‐resistant energy barrier. Such buildup types are probably common after major crises in earth history, when reef organisms were virtually absent.