The dependence on system parameters of strange-mode instabilities in accretion discs

A systematic study of the dependence on disc parameters and input physics, such as opacity and the treatment of convection, of strange-mode instabilities in thin accretion discs, which have been discovered recently, is presented. The instabilities are found to exist for a wide range of parameters, are partly very robust, and their growth rates can reach the dynamical range. Even discs on galactic scales around massive black holes are affected by them. Two groups of instabilities can be distinguished, the first of which is related to the radiation-pressure-dominated part of the disc, and the second to helium/hydrogen ionization. By application of the NAR approximation, both of them can be shown to be of mechanical origin, and the classical κ -mechanism can be excluded as the instability mechanism. A heuristic model for strange-mode instabilities proposed in the context of stellar strange-mode instabilities in luminous stars seems to be applicable to the group associated with dominant radiation pressure.     

Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating Subsurface Parameterization to Simulate Hyporheic Exchange: The Steinlach River Test Site

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of river water and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic exchange has been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. Our study evaluates the trade-offs between intrinsic (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) model errors when choosing between homogeneous and highly complex subsurface parameter structures. We modeled the Steinlach River Test Site in Southwest Germany using a fully coupled surface water-groundwater model to simulate hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive errors and uncertainties of transit time distributions. A highly parameterized model was built, treated as a “virtual reality” and used as a reference. We found that if the parameter structure is too simple, it will be limited by intrinsic model errors. By increasing subsurface complexity through the addition of zones or heterogeneity, we can begin to exchange intrinsic for epistemic errors. Thus, the appropriate level of detail to represent the subsurface depends on the acceptable range of intrinsic structural errors for the given modeling objectives and the available site data. We found that a zonated model is capable of reproducing the transit time distributions of a more detailed model, but only if the geological structures are known. An interpolated heterogeneous parameter field (cf. pilot points) showed the best trade-offs between the two errors, indicating fitness for practical applications. Parameter fields generated by multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) produce transit time distributions with the largest uncertainties, however, these are reducible by additional hydrogeological data, particularly flux measurements.     

Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods

Increases in human water consumption (HWC) and consequent degradation of the ecological environment are common in arid regions. Understanding the mechanisms behind these processes is important for sustainable development. Analyses of changes in HWC between alternating wet and dry periods are carried out in four arid inland basins in Central Asia and China (Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe and Shulehe river basins). Based on runoff records, the presence of an asymmetric HWC response is proved (p < 0.01), with an increase in HWC during wet periods and a muted decrease during subsequent dry periods. This behaviour is interpreted by invoking theories from behavioural economics at the individual and community levels. A simple model based on these theories is shown to be able to reproduce the observed dynamics and is used to discuss the importance of strengthening institutional factors for water sustainability.     

Improving sustainability of urban drainage systems for climate change adaptation using best management practices: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Although the effectiveness of best management practices (BMPs) in reducing urban flooding is widely recognized, the improved sustainability achieved by implementing BMPs in upstream suburban areas, reducing downstream urban floods, is still debated. This study introduces a new definition of urban drainage system (UDS) sustainability, focusing on BMP usage to enhance system performance after adaptation to climate change. Three types of hydraulic reliability index (HRI) plus robustness and improvability indices were used to quantify the potential enhanced sustainability of the system in a changing climate, together with a climate change adaptability index (CCAI). The sustainability of UDS for the safe conveyance of storm-water runoff was investigated under different land-use scenarios: No BMP, BMP in urban areas, and BMP inside and upstream of urban areas, considering climate change impacts. Rainfall–runoff simulation alongside drainage network modelling was conducted using a storm-water management model (US EPA SWMM) to determine the inundation areas for both base-line and future climatic conditions. A new method for disaggregating daily rainfall to hourly, proposed to provide a finer resolution of input rainfall to SWMM, was applied to a semi-urbanized catchment whose upstream runoff from mountainous areas may contribute to the storm-water runoff in downstream urban parts. Our findings confirm an increase in the number of inundation points and reduction in sustainability indices of UDS due to climate change. The results present an increase in UDS reliability from 4% to 16% and improvements in other sustainability indicators using BMPs in upstream suburban areas compared to implementing them in urban areas.     

The use of mycorrhiza for eco‐engineering measures in steep alpine environments: effects on soil aggregate formation and fine‐root development

Steep erosion‐prone and vegetation‐free slopes are widespread in alpine areas and are often discussed since they have a high socio‐economic damage potential. We present an eco‐engineering approach to test whether a mycorrhizal inoculum improves the establishment of hedge brush layers and in turn soil structural stability on a steep, coarse‐grained vegetation‐free slope in the eastern Swiss Alps. We established (i) mycorrhizal and (ii) non‐mycorrhizal treated eco‐engineered research plots on a field experimental scale, covering a total area of approximately 1000 m² on an east‐northeast (ENE) exposed slope, where many environmental parameters can be regarded as homogeneous. After a full vegetation period, we quantified soil aggregate stability, the formation of water stable aggregates and the fine‐root development. Our results illustrate that the establishment of brush layers without mycorrhizal inoculum increased aggregate stability significantly. Against our expectation and glasshouse experiments, the addition of mycorrhizal inoculum did not have a statistically significant effect after one vegetation period although it tended to increase aggregate stability. Analogously, root length density (RLD) tended to be higher at the non‐mycorrhizal treated site. Aggregate stability was significantly correlated with RLD. Studies on a bigger field experimental scale are inevitable, complement glasshouse studies and lead to a better understanding for a successful application of sustainable eco‐engineering measures in alpine environments. Based on our results and considering the fact that the response time in natural ecosystems may be slower than in laboratory approaches, we conclude that long‐term field studies are necessary to validate results gained through laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm observations by remote sensing and influences of gustiness on ocean waves and on generation of rogue waves

The impact of the gustiness on surface waves under storm conditions is investigated with focus on the appearance of wave groups with extreme high amplitude and wavelength in the North Sea. During many storms characterized by extremely high individual waves measured near the German coast, especially in cold air outbreaks, the moving atmospheric open cells are observed by optical and radar satellites. According to measurements, the footprint of the cell produces a local increase in the wind field at sea surface, moving as a consistent system with a propagation speed near to swell wave-traveling speed. The optical and microwave satellite data are used to connect mesoscale atmospheric turbulences and the extreme waves measured. The parameters of open cells observed are used for numerical spectral wave modeling. The North Sea with horizontal resolution of 2.5?km and with focus on the German Bight was simulated. The wind field “storm in storm,” including moving organized mesoscale eddies with increased wind speed, was generated. To take into account the rapid moving gust structure, the input wind field was updated each 5?min. The test cases idealized with one, two, and four open individual cells and, respectively, with groups of open cells, with and without preexisting sea state, as well the real storm conditions, are simulated. The model results confirm that an individual-moving open cell can cause the local significant wave height increase in order of meters within the cell area and especially in a narrow area of 1–2?km at the footprint center of a cell (the cell's diameter is 40–90?km). In a case of a traveling individual open cell with 15?m·s^?1 over a sea surface with a preexisting wind sea of and swell, a local significant wave height increase of 3.5?m is produced. A group of cells for a real storm condition produces a local increase of significant wave height of more than 6?m during a short time window of 10–20?min (cell passing). The sea surface simulation from modeled wave spectra points out the appearance of wave groups including extreme individual waves with a period of about 25?s and a wavelength of more than 350?m under the cell's footprint. This corresponds well with measurement of a rogue wave group with length of about 400?m and a period of near 25?s. This has been registered at FiNO-1 research platform in the North Sea during Britta storm on November 1, 2006 at 04:00 UTC. The results can explain the appearance of rogue waves in the German Bight and can be used for ship safety and coastal protection. Presently, the considered mesoscale gustiness cannot be incorporated in present operational wave forecasting systems, since it needs an update of the wind field at spatial and temporal scales, which is still not available for such applications. However, the scenario simulations for cell structures with appropriate travel speed, observed by optical and radar satellites, can be done and applied for warning messages.     

碳酸盐风化碳汇与森林碳汇的对比——碳汇研究思路和方法变革的必要性

目前,全球碳循环研究主要集中在海洋碳汇以及陆地土壤和植被碳汇,而对岩石风化碳汇仅考虑地质长时间尺度的硅酸盐风化作用,而认为碳酸盐风化在长时间尺度上对碳汇无贡献。然而,碳酸盐相对于硅酸盐有快得多的溶解速度,且对全球变化(特别是气候和CO2变化)的响应迅速,同时由于生物作用和人为活动的影响,使得碳酸盐风化碳汇的能力需要重新评价。最新的研究发现,由碳酸盐溶解、全球水循环及水生生物光合利用溶解无机碳共同作用,即水-岩-气-生相互作用形成的大气碳汇,远远大于之前只估计了河流输运的无机碳汇,其量级与森林碳汇量相当,因此有必要对传统的碳汇研究思路和方法进行某些变革,这有可能为解决所谓的全球“碳失汇”问题找到一条出路。      

Meteorological causes of Harmattan dust in West Africa

We investigated the temporal dynamics of dust entrainment in the Bodélé Depression, Central Sahara, to better understand the intra-annual variability of aerosol emission in the world's largest dust source. The linkages between dust entrainment and large-scale meteorological factors were examined by correlating several meteorological variables in the Mediterranean and Africa north of the equator with the aerosol concentrations in the Bodélé Depression separately for winter and summer. The methodological tools applied are NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the aerosol index of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS-AI), available for 15 years from 1978 to 1993. We found that dust mobilisation during the Harmattan season is highly dependent on air pressure variability in the Mediterranean area. High pressure to the north of the Bodélé intensifies the NE trade winds, leading to an increased entrainment of dust in the Bodélé Depression. In summer, dust mobilization cannot be explained by the large scale meteorological conditions. This highlights the importance of local to regional wind systems linked to the northernmost position of the intertropical convection zone (ITCZ) during this time.