全文获取类型
收费全文 | 761篇 |
免费 | 19篇 |
国内免费 | 18篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 22篇 |
大气科学 | 60篇 |
地球物理 | 166篇 |
地质学 | 361篇 |
海洋学 | 38篇 |
天文学 | 111篇 |
综合类 | 2篇 |
自然地理 | 38篇 |
出版年
2022年 | 5篇 |
2021年 | 6篇 |
2020年 | 7篇 |
2019年 | 8篇 |
2018年 | 6篇 |
2017年 | 11篇 |
2016年 | 18篇 |
2015年 | 12篇 |
2014年 | 24篇 |
2013年 | 37篇 |
2012年 | 27篇 |
2011年 | 25篇 |
2010年 | 31篇 |
2009年 | 34篇 |
2008年 | 24篇 |
2007年 | 38篇 |
2006年 | 29篇 |
2005年 | 23篇 |
2004年 | 26篇 |
2003年 | 26篇 |
2002年 | 32篇 |
2001年 | 26篇 |
2000年 | 17篇 |
1999年 | 17篇 |
1998年 | 16篇 |
1997年 | 14篇 |
1996年 | 23篇 |
1995年 | 15篇 |
1994年 | 9篇 |
1993年 | 11篇 |
1992年 | 12篇 |
1991年 | 9篇 |
1990年 | 12篇 |
1989年 | 19篇 |
1988年 | 9篇 |
1987年 | 8篇 |
1986年 | 7篇 |
1985年 | 5篇 |
1984年 | 10篇 |
1983年 | 6篇 |
1982年 | 6篇 |
1981年 | 10篇 |
1980年 | 8篇 |
1979年 | 8篇 |
1978年 | 8篇 |
1975年 | 7篇 |
1973年 | 5篇 |
1971年 | 4篇 |
1966年 | 5篇 |
1958年 | 5篇 |
排序方式: 共有798条查询结果,搜索用时 359 毫秒
121.
Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
Wolfgang Nowak 《Mathematical Geosciences》2010,42(2):199-221
Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess
the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation.
Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further
rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study.
It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical
significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures
are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation
variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty,
with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain
mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework.
Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear
problems are discussed. 相似文献
122.
Turbulent flux observations and modelling over a shallow lake and a wet grassland in the Nam Co basin,Tibetan Plateau 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Tobias?BiermannEmail author Wolfgang?Babel Weiqiang?Ma Xuelong?Chen Elisabeth?Thiem Yaoming?Ma Thomas?Foken 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,116(1-2):301-316
The Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in the global water cycle and is strongly influenced by climate change. While energy and matter fluxes have been more intensely studied over land surfaces, a large proportion of lakes have either been neglected or parameterised with simple bulk approaches. Therefore, turbulent fluxes were measured over wet grassland and a shallow lake with a single eddy-covariance complex at the shoreline in the Nam Co basin in summer 2009. Footprint analysis was used to split observations according to the underlying surface, and two sophisticated surface models were utilised to derive gap-free time series. Results were then compared with observations and simulations from a nearby eddy-covariance station over dry grassland, yielding pronounced differences. Observations and footprint integrated simulations compared well, even for situations with flux contributions including grassland and lake. The accessibility problem for EC measurements on lakes can be overcome by combining standard meteorological measurements at the shoreline with model simulations, only requiring representative estimates of lake surface temperature. 相似文献
123.
Cindy Mora-Stock Martin Thorwart Tina Wunderlich Stefan Bredemeyer Thor H. Hansteen Wolfgang Rabbel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(7):2015-2028
Llaima and Villarrica are two of the most active volcanoes in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone and presently show contrasting types of activity. Llaima is a closed vent edifice with fumarolic activity, while Villarrica has an open vent with a lava lake, continuous degassing and tremor activity. This study is focused on characterizing the relationships between volcanic and seismic activity in the months before and after the 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake, which was located in NNW direction from the volcanoes. Time series for tremors, long-period and volcano-tectonic events were obtained from the catalogue of the Volcanic Observatory of the Southern Andes (OVDAS) and from the SFB 574 temporary volcanic network. An increase in the amount of tremor activity, long-period events and degassing rates was observed at Villarrica weeks before the mainshock and continued at a high level also after it. This increase in activity is interpreted to be caused by enhanced magma influx at depth and may be unrelated to the Maule event. In Llaima, an increase in the volcano-tectonic activity was observed directly after the earthquake. The simultaneous post-earthquake activity at both volcanoes is consistent with a structural adjustment response. Since this enhanced activity lasted for more than a year, we suggest that it is related to a medium-term change in the static stress. Thus, the Maule earthquake may have affected both volcanoes, but did not trigger eruptions, from which we assume that none of the volcanoes were in a critical state. 相似文献
124.
Wolfgang Hillebrandt 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):173-182
Recent developments in theoretical model-calculations for the synthesis of the chemical elements during late stages of stellar
evolution are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on a discussion of various astrophysical sites, including core-collapse and
thermonuclear supernovae, and the physics of turbulent reactive fluids. Results of numerical simulations are presented and
discussed, together with new results concerning solar-system abundances as well as abundances observed in very metal-poor
stars, in the context of searches for constraints on the still rather uncertain nuclear physics data and astrophysical models.
This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
125.
126.
127.
128.
129.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
130.
Dáithí Stone Maximilian Auffhammer Mark Carey Gerrit Hansen Christian Huggel Wolfgang Cramer David Lobell Ulf Molau Andrew Solow Lourdes Tibig Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):381-395
Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation. 相似文献