New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Results from a Multi-disciplinary Sedimentary Pilot Study of Tectonic Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) – Geochemistry and Paleolimnology of the Recent Past

A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.     

Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.     

Jurassic strike slip versus subduction in the Eastern Alps

Late Jurassic formations of the Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) contain ample evidence of synsedimentary tectonics in the form of elongate basins filled with turbidites, debris flows and slumps. Clasts are derived from the Mesozoic of the NCA; they commonly measure tens of metres in diameter and occasionally form kilometre-size bodies. These sedimentologic observations and the presumed evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism recently led to the hypothesis of a south-dipping Jurassic subduction zone with accretionary wedge in the southern parts of the NCA. We present new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates from the location of the postulated high-pressure metamorphism that bracket the age of this crystallization not earlier than 114–120 Ma. The event is therefore part of the well-documented mid-Cretaceous metamorphism of the Austro-alpine domain. Thus, there is currently no evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism to support the subduction hypothesis. The sediment record of the Late Jurassic deformation in the NCA, including the formation of local thrust sheets, is no conclusive evidence for subduction. All these phenomena are perfectly compatible with synsedimentary strike-slip tectonics. Large strike-slip fault zones with restraining and releasing bends and associated flower structures and pull-apart basins are a perfectly viable alternative to the subduction model for the Late Jurassic history of the NCA. However, in contrast to the Eastern Alps transect, where arguments for a Jurassic subduction are missing, a glaucophane bearing Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism in the Meliatic realm of the West Carpathians is well documented. There, the high-pressure/low-temperature slices occur between the Gemeric unit and the Silica nappe system (including the Aggtelek-Rudabanya units), which corresponds in facies with the Juvavic units in the southern part of the NCA. To solve the contrasting palaeogeographic reconstructions we propose that the upper Jurassic left lateral strike-slip system proposed here for the Eastern Alps continued eastwards and caused the eastward displacement of the Silica units into the Meliatic accretionary wedge.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of Cadomian felsic igneous rocks, Sandıklı area of the western Taurides, Turkey

In the Sandıklı (Afyon) region, western Taurides, the Late Proterozoic rocks of the Sandıklı basement complex are composed of low-grade meta-sedimentary rocks (Güvercinoluk Formation) intruded by felsic rocks (Kestel Cayı Porphyroid Suite, KCPS). The KCPS is a deformed and highly sheared, dome-shaped rhyolitic body with a granitic core. Quartz porphyry dikes intrude both the slightly metamorphic igneous and the sedimentary rocks of the basement complex. Both the quartz porphyries and rhyolites were converted into mylonites with relict igneous textures. Geochemical data show that these felsic igneous rocks are subalkaline and mainly granitic in composition with SiO₂ >72 wt% and Al₂O₃ >11.5 wt%. The chondrite-normalized incompatible trace element patterns are characterized by distinct negative Rb, Nb, Sr, P, Ti, and Eu with enrichment in Th, U, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, and Zr. The REE patterns of the felsic rocks indicate a strong enrichment in LREE but display slightly flat HREE patterns. According to geochemical characteristics and petrogenetic modeling, extrusive and intrusive rocks of the KCPS were probably derived from an upper continental crustal source (partial melting of granites/felsic rocks) by 18–20% fractional melting plus 18–20% Rayleigh fractional crystallization, which seems to be the most effective igneous process during the crystallization of the KCPS. Single zircon age data from the granitoids and fossils from the disconformably overlying sedimentary successions indicate that the metamorphism and the igneous event in the Taurides are related to the Cadomian orogeny. Based on the geological, geochemical and petrogenetic correlation of the post-collisional granitoids it is further suggested that the Tauride belt in western central Turkey was in a similar tectonic setting to the Gondwanan terranes in North Africa (Younger Granitoids) and southern Europe (Spain, France, Bohemia, Brno Massifs) during the Late Cadomian period.     

Formation of iron-containing colloids by the weathering of phyllite

The formation of colloids during the weathering of phyllite was investigated by exposing ground phyllite to Milli-Q water. Secondary mineral colloids of 10¹–10² nm were detected in significant concentrations. At pH of about 8.5, the solution concentration of these colloids reached up to 10 mg/L (however, acidification to pH 4.0 prevented the formation of the colloids). The mineralogical composition of the secondary mineral colloids is assumed to be a mixture of ferrihydrite, manganese oxyhydroxides, aluminosilicates, amorphous Al(OH)₃ and gibbsite with possible additions of iron silicates and␣iron-alumino silicates. The colloids were stable over longer periods of time (at least several weeks), even in the presence of suspended ground rock. Direct formation of iron-containing secondary mineral colloids at the rock–water interface by the weathering of rock material is an alternative to the well-known mechanism of iron colloid formation in the bulk of water bodies by mixing of different waters or by aeration of anoxic waters. This direct mechanism is of relevance for colloid production during the weathering of freshly crushed rock in the unsaturated zone as for instance crushed rock in mine waste rock piles. Colloids produced by this mechanism, too, can influence the transport of contaminants such as actinides because these colloids have a large specific surface area and a high sorption affinity.     

Hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater in a Mediterranean coastal aquifer, Mersin-Erdemli basin (Turkey)

In this study, hydrogeologic and hydrochemical information from the Mersin-Erdemli groundwater system were integrated and used to determine the main factors and mechanisms controlling the chemistry of groundwaters in the area and anthropogenic factors presently affecting them. The PHREEQC geochemical modeling demonstrated that relatively few phases are required to derive water chemistry in the area. In a broad sense, the reactions responsible for the hydrochemical evolution in the area fall into four categories: (1) silicate weathering reactions; (2) dissolution of salts; (3) precipitation of calcite, amorphous silica and kaolinite; (4) ion exchange. As determined by multivariate statistical analysis, anthropogenic factors show seasonality in the area where most contaminated waters related to fertilizer and fungicide applications that occur during early summer season.