Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Holocene high-resolution record of aquatic productivity,seasonal anoxia and meromixis from varved sediments of Lake Łazduny,North-Eastern Poland: insight from a novel multi-proxy approach

Anthropogenic eutrophication and spreading anoxia in freshwater systems is a global concern. Little is known about anoxia in earlier historic times under weaker human impact, or under prehistoric natural conditions with different trophic, land cover and climatic regimes. We use a novel approach that combines high-resolution hyperspectral imaging with µ-XRF and HPLC-pigment data, which allows us to assess chloropigments (productivity) and bacteriopigments (anoxia) at seasonal subvarve-scale resolution. Our ~9700 cal a bp varved sediment record from NE Poland suggests that productivity increased stepwise from oligotrophic Early Holocene conditions (until ~9200 cal a bp ) to mesotrophic conditions in the Mid- and Late Holocene. Natural eutrophication was mainly a function of progressing landscape evolution with intense weathering under dense forest and warm-moist climatic conditions. Generally, anoxia increased with increasing productivity. Seasonal anoxia and some multi-decadal periods of meromixis were the common mixing patterns throughout the Holocene except for a period of persisting meromixis between ~5200 and 2000 cal a bp. Anthropogenic deforestation around 400 cal a bp resulted in substantially better lake oxygenation despite high productivity. In this small lake, aquatic productivity and lakeshore forest cover (wind shield) were more important factors controlling oxic/anoxic conditions than Holocene temperature variability.     

Hammond Hill Research Catchment: Supporting hydrologic investigations of rooting zone and vegetation water dynamics under climate change

The Hammond Hill Research Catchment (HH) is a small (120 ha), temperate, second order tributary to Six Mile Creek, Cayuga Lake, and the Great Lakes (42.42°, −76.32°). The HH has been monitored since January 2017 for the purpose of understanding how recent infiltration mixes with antecedent soil water on hillslope forest floors and the spatial and temporal patterns of Root Water Uptake (RWU) by temperate northeastern US tree species (eastern hemlock [Tsuga canadensis], American beech [Fagus grandifolia], and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). These data are informing us about the hydrologic consequences of anticipated tree species composition change and supporting the development of more refined ecohydrological models. The glaciated catchment is underlain by a shallow confining siltstone layer (1–1.5 m depth) and densely covered with an approximately 60 year old regrowth mixed species forest of hemlock, beech, and other deciduous tree species common to the northeastern US. Current datasets from the HH include precipitation snow water equivalent, discharge, and associated isotopic water compositions, δ²H & δ¹⁸O. Measurements of (top 10 cm) soil water content, as well as bulk soil water and hemlock and beech xylem isotopic compositions are made at several locations across a topographic wetness gradient. The near-term role of the HH is to support an understanding of the environmental and ecological drivers of plant RWU competition. All data from the HH are publicly available.     

Mantle resistance against Gibraltar slab dragging as a key cause of the Messinian Salinity Crisis

The Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97–5.33 Ma) was caused by the closure of the Atlantic‐Mediterranean gateways that cut through the Gibraltar orogenic system. The geodynamic drivers underlying gateway closure and re‐opening are still debated. Here, we interrogate the gateway successions to find the imprints of surface deformation, infer the timing and nature of associated geodynamic drivers, and test such inferences against numerical simulations of slab dynamics. We find that since the latest Miocene, a tectonic framework was established in the gateway region dominated simultaneously by (a) relative plate convergence, (b) slab tearing under the eastern Betic Cordillera and (c) mantle resistance against north‐northeastward dragging of the Gibraltar slab by the African plate's absolute motion. We propose that mantle‐resisted slab dragging and slab tearing operated in concert closing the gateways that caused the Messinian Salinity Crisis, whereas sinking of heavy oceanic lithosphere located between buoyant continental plates re‐opened the Strait of Gibraltar at 5.33 Ma.     

A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland

This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.