Holocene paleohydrological reconstruction of Lake Strzeszyńskie (western Poland) and its implications for the central European climatic transition zone

Western Poland is located in the central European climatic transition zone, which separates the mild and humid Atlantic climate of Western Europe and the East European continental climate. This region is sensitive to lateral shifts of the European climate zones and is particularly suitable for reconstructing Holocene climate variability. This paper presents detailed analyses of the sedimentary record from Lake Strzeszyńskie since the Late Pleistocene. These include smear-slide and thin-section observations, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, magnetic susceptibility measurements, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon dating. The sediment record reveals three distinct sedimentary units consisting of: (1) an alternation of sand layers and laminated silt and clay deposits accumulated prior to 14,600 cal yr BP; (2) faintly laminated calcareous sediments intercalated with organic matter-rich layers deposited between 14,600 and 10,200 cal yr BP; and (3) massive calcareous mud deposited after 10,200 cal yr BP. The Holocene period is marked by nine phases of organic-rich sedimentation and enhanced Fe deposition, which occurred at ca. 10.1, 9.3, 6.4–6.1, 5.5–5.1, 4.7–4.5, 2.7–2.4, 1.3–1.2, 0.8–0.6, 0.4–0.2 kyr cal BP. These phases are associated with high lake levels and correspond with wet periods recognized in several other records from Poland and central Europe. These phases partly coincide with North Atlantic cold periods, which may suggest that high lake levels are triggered by an ocean-continent linking mechanism.     

Comparison of Two Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods within the Context of the Variable Regime in the Representative Polish Rivers

Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies.     

An approach to response-based reliability analysis of quasi-linear Errors-in-Variables models

The paper presents an approach to internal reliability analysis of observation systems known as Errors-in-Variables (EIV) models with parameters estimated by the method of least squares. Such problems are routinely treated by total least squares adjustment, or orthogonal regression. To create a suitable environment for derivations in the analysis, a general nonlinear form of such EIV models is assumed, based on a traditional adjustment method of condition equations with unknowns, also known as the Gauss–Helmert model. However, in order to apply the method of reliability analysis based on the approach to response assessment in systems with correlated observations, presented in the earlier work of this author, it was necessary to confine the considerations to a quasi-linear form of the Gauss–Helmert model, representing quasi-linear EIV models. This made it possible to obtain a linear disturbance/response relationship needed in that approach. Several specific cases of quasi-linear EIV models are discussed. The derived formulas are consistent with those already functioning for standard least squares adjustment problems. The analysis shows that, as could be expected, the average level of response-based reliability for such EIV models under investigation is lower than that for the corresponding standard linear models. For EIV models with homoscedastic and uncorrelated observations, the relationship between the average reliability indices for the independent and the dependent variables is formulated for multiple regression and coordinate transformations. Numerical examples for these two applications are provided to illustrate this analysis.     

Analyses of the warm season rainfall climatology of the northeastern US using regional climate model simulations and radar rainfall fields

We examine the warm season (April-September) rainfall climatology of the northeastern US through analyses of high-resolution radar rainfall fields from the Hydro-NEXRAD system and regional climate model simulations using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Analyses center on the 5-year period from 2003 to 2007 and the study area includes the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region covered by radar rainfall fields from the Fort Dix, NJ WSR-88D. The objective of this study is to develop and test tools for examining rainfall climatology, with a special focus on heavy rainfall. An additional emphasis is on rainfall climatology in regions of complex terrain, like the northeastern US, which is characterized by land-water boundaries, large heterogeneity in land use and cover, and mountainous terrain in the western portion of the region. We develop a 5-year record of warm season radar rainfall fields for the study region using the Hydro-NEXRAD system. We perform regional downscaling simulations for the 5-year study period using the WRF model. Radar rainfall fields are used to characterize the interannual, seasonal and diurnal variation of rainfall over the study region and to examine spatial heterogeneity of rainfall. Regional climate model simulations are characterized by a wet bias in the rainfall fields, with the largest bias in the high-elevation regions of the model domain. We show that model simulations capture broad features of the interannual, seasonal, and diurnal variation of rainfall. Model simulations do not capture spatial gradients in radar rainfall fields around the New York metropolitan region and land-water boundaries to the east. The model climatology of convective available potential energy (CAPE) is used to interpret the regional distribution of warm season rainfall and the seasonal and diurnal variability of rainfall. We use hydrologic and meteorological observations from July 2007 to examine the interactions of land surface processes and rainfall from a regional perspective.     

Empirically-based modeling of spatial sampling uncertainties associated with rainfall measurements by rain gauges

In the quantitative evaluation of radar-rainfall products (maps), rain gauge data are generally used as a good approximation of the true ground rainfall. However, rain gauges provide accurate measurements for a specific location, while radar estimates represent areal averages. Because these sampling discrepancies could introduce noise into the comparisons between these two sensors, they need to be accounted for. In this study, the spatial sampling error is defined as the ratio between the measurements by a single rain gauge and the true areal rainfall, defined as the value obtained by averaging the measurements by an adequate number of gauges within a pixel. Using a non-parametric scheme, the authors characterize its full statistical distribution for several spatial (4, 16 and 36 km²) and temporal (15 min and hourly) scales.     

Multi-resolution clustering analysis and 3-D visualization of multitudinous synthetic earthquakes

We use modern and novel techniques to study the problems associated with detection and analysis of multitudinous seismic events, which form the background for isolated great earthquakes. This new approach involves multivariate analysis of low and large magnitude events recorded in space over a couple of centuries in time. We propose here the deployment of the clustering scheme both for extracting small local structures and large-scale trends in synthetic data obtained from four numerically simulated models with: uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-heterogeneity fault zone (M). The mutual nearest neighbor (mnn) clustering scheme allows for extraction of multi-resolutional seismic anomalies in both the spatio-temporal and multi-dimensional feature space. We demonstrate that the large earthquakes are correlated with a certain pathway of smaller events. Visualization of the anomalies by using a recently introduced visualization package Amira reveals clearly the spatio-temporal relationships between clusters of small, medium and large earthquakes, indicating significant stress relaxation across the entire fault region. We demonstrate that this mnn scheme can extract distinct clusters of the smallest events, which precede and follow a singularly large magnitude earthquake. These clusters form larger spatio-temporal structures comprising a series of large earthquakes. The link between the large and medium magnitude events is not so clearly understood. Short-ranged correlations are dominated by strong spatio-temporal anomalies, thus reflecting the global seismic properties of the entire fault zone.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.     

Aerosol concentration measurement with multiple light scattering system and laser aerosol spectrometer

The performance of two different optical concentration-measuring techniques was investigated over a concentration range starting with about 10² cm⁻³ and extending over more than four decades. Both instruments are capable of real-time counting, however due to their particular design-single particle counter and ensemble particle-measuring system—they operate in overlapping, but different concentration ranges. The upper, coincidence-free counting limit for the single particle counter used in this study was established to be in the order of 10⁴ cm⁻³. The ensemble technique was found to be functional and stable for concentrations of about 10³ cm⁻³ and limited by the onset of multiple scattering at concentrations nearby 2×10⁶ cm⁻³. Within the determined boundaries, both techniques proved to provide reliable aerosol concentration data.     

Correlation between Loess profiles on the basis of mineralogical,malacological, and anthropogenic indicators: A case study from Moravany-Lopata,western Slovakia

Moravany-Lopata, located in the complex of sites in the middle Vah basin, dates to the period immediately preceding the LGM. The authors use this site to demonstrate the usefulness of mineralogical, sedimentological, palaeomalacological, and anthropogenic criteria for the correlation of loess profiles. This analysis is especially concerned with sites in loess territories where the loess layers covering archaeological levels are not thick. Such sites occur frequently on the plateaus of the northern part of Central Europe, though they appear most notably in the areas in which the last loess cover, corresponding to the period after the last Pleniglacial and/or Late Glacial postloess sediments, is absent. The archaeological levels dated to before or directly after the LGM occur in the upper portion of the loess, overlain by the Holocene soil. The investigations at the Moravany-Lopata site have confirmed the usefulness of the anthropogenic indicators in the 0.1–1.0 mm fraction for the identification of occupation levels extending even beyond the area of occurrence of macrofinds and evident type structures. On this basis, a relationship could be established between two occupational levels and two ice-wedge generations in the period from 21.4 to 20 ky. Gravettian settlement in western Slovakia seems to have persisted up to the maximum of the LGM. Population groups representing the end of the shouldered points horizon (pointes à cran) appeared in western Slovakia in the intervals between the formation of large networks of ice wedges. The next settlement phase in that territory falls at about 18–17 ky B.P. This is the Epigravettian settlement, which is culturally unrelated to the shouldered points horizon. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Modern sediments and sediment accumulation rates on the narrow shelf off central Vietnam,South China Sea

The narrow shelf along the coast of central Vietnam is seasonally supplied by large amounts of sediment from the adjacent mountainous hinterland following monsoonal precipitation. This study examines the fate of these sediments, and their accumulation rates along two transects across the shelf, based on analyses of radionuclides (²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs), sediment texture and structure, as well as carbonate content. The inner shelf is covered by sands, and probably serves as bypass zone for fine sediments transported offshore. Sediment characteristics suggest that the transport to the mid and outer shelf is related to flood events. Averaged over the last century, the ²¹⁰Pb-based mud mass accumulation rates on the mid and outer shelf vary between 0.25 g cm ⁻² and 0.56 g cm ⁻² year ⁻¹ (corresponding to linear sediment accumulation rates of 0.20–0.47 cm year ⁻¹). Along with high excess ²¹⁰Pb inventories, these high accumulation rates suggest a significant sediment depocentre on the mid shelf. The ²¹⁰Pb-derived sediment accumulation rates were found to be several times higher than ¹⁴C-derived rates previously reported for the Holocene, at the same location on the outer shelf. This is probably due to the incompleteness of the Holocene record, and an overestimation of the modern rate. Another explanation would be increased erosion within the rivers’ drainage basins, due to 20th century deforestation. This hypothesis is supported by the difference between recent (less sand, more lithic grains in the sand fraction) and older sediments. In terms of modern sedimentation processes and rates, the central Vietnam shelf, although being a part of a narrow passive continental margin, is similar to active flood-dominated continental margins.