The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

Concern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.     

Response spectral relationships for rock sites derived from the component attenuation model

The seismological model was developed initially from the fundamental relationship between earthquake ground motion properties and the seismic moment generated at the source of the earthquake. Following two decades of continuous seismological research in the United States, seismological models which realistically account for both the source and path effects on the seismic shear waves have been developed and their accuracy rigorously verified (particularly in the long and medium period ranges). An important finding from the seismological research by Atkinson and Boore and their co‐investigators is the similarity of the average frequency characteristics of seismic waves generated at the source between the seemingly very different seismic environments of Eastern and Western North America (ENA and WNA, respectively). A generic definition of the average source properties of earthquakes has therefore been postulated, referred to herein as the generic source model. Further, the generic ‘hard rock’ crustal model which is characteristic of ENA and the generic ‘rock’ crustal model characteristic of WNA have been developed to combine with the generic source model, hence enabling simulations to be made of the important path‐related modifications to ground motions arising from different types of crustal rock materials. It has been found that the anelastic contribution to whole path attenuation is consistent between the ENA and WNA models, for earthquake ground motions (response spectral velocities and displacements) in the near and medium fields, indicating that differences in the ENA and WNA motions arise principally from the other forms of path‐related modifications, namely the mid‐crust amplification and the combined effect of the upper‐crust amplification and attenuation, both of which are significant only for the generic WNA ‘rock’ earthquake ground motions. This paper aims to demonstrate the effective utilization of the latest seismological model, comprising the generic source and crustal models, to develop a response spectral attenuation model for direct engineering applications. The developed attenuation model also comprises a source factor and several crustal (wave‐path modification) component factors, and thus has also been termed herein the component attenuation model (CAM). Generic attenuation relationships in CAM, which embrace both ENA and WNA conditions, have been developed using stochastic simulations. The crustal classification of a region outside North America can be based upon regional seismological and geological information. CAM is particularly useful for areas where local strong motion data are lacking for satisfactory empirical modelling. In the companion paper entitled ‘response spectrum modelling for rock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions combining velocity, displacement and acceleration predictions’, the CAM procedure has been incorporated into a response spectrum model which can be used to effectively define the seismic hazard of bedrock sites in low and moderate seismicity regions. This paper and the companion paper constitute the basis of a long‐term objective of the authors, to develop and effectively utilize the seismological model for engineering applications worldwide.     

Alfvén waves in umbral flux tubes

Savage has suggested that an energy flux of 2 × 10¹⁰ erg cm^–2 s^–1 passes through the umbra of a sunspot in the form of hydromagnetic waves. In this paper some of the consequences of this flux are considered. It is first shown that it is not inconsistent with the energy requirements for the heating of umbral dots and for solar wind storms, assuming in the latter case that the flux tubes emerging from about one tenth of the area of a large spot are open-ended.However, the hypothesis also requires that Alfvén waves travel along the closed flux tubes linking the umbra either with the umbra of another spot or with the surrounding faculae and passing through regions of variable field strength and density. It is shown that, for a very simplified model, standing waves are possible in a symmetrical field configuration. For velocities of 3 km/s in the umbra, the maximum particle velocity in the loop is of order 80 km/s which strains the perturbation assumption severely. However, it is pointed out that periodic velocities of this order are observed in the chromosphere near sunspots.It is further shown that mechanical dissipation of these waves in local regions of the flux tube may contribute to the heating of faculae.     

A sample preparation guide for clay-rich carbonaceous chondrites

The matrix of the C2-ungrouped Tarda meteorite contains abundant smectite minerals that swell and crumble when exposed to polar liquids, causing the sample to rapidly slake. This phenomenon presents a serious challenge when polishing the meteorite, as common polishing liquids used on carbonaceous chondrites, such as water, ethanol, ethylene glycol, and isopropyl alcohol, are polar and will cause the sample to swell, making it unsuitable for some analyses. Hexane and mineral oil are nonpolar liquids that were found to not induce swelling on highly expansive montmorillonite-clay analog material and were effectively integrated into a polishing procedure for Tarda. Here, we detail a procedure for mounting, cutting, and polishing the Tarda meteorite to prepare a surface that is suitable for a variety of sensitive techniques, such as electron microprobe analysis. This work offers a practical methodology for the preparation of other clay-rich samples, which may include the recently returned Ryugu and Bennu materials.     

Statistical algorithms accounting for background density in the detection of UXO target areas at DoD munitions sites

Statistically defensible methods are presented for developing geophysical detector sampling plans and analyzing data for munitions response sites where unexploded ordnance (UXO) may exist. Detection methods for identifying areas of elevated anomaly density from background density are shown. Additionally, methods are described which aid in the choice of transect pattern and spacing to assure with degree of confidence that a target area (TA) of specific size, shape, and anomaly density will be identified using the detection methods. Methods for evaluating the sensitivity of designs to variation in certain parameters are also discussed. Methods presented have been incorporated into the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) software (free at ) and demonstrated at multiple sites in the United States. Application examples from actual transect designs and surveys from the previous two years are demonstrated.     

Variation between bee communities on a sand dune complex in the Great Basin Desert,North America: Implications for sand dune conservation

Sand dunes across the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts house rich bee communities. The pollination services these bees provide can be vital in maintaining the diverse, and often endemic, dune flora. These dune environments, however, are threatened by intense off-highway vehicle (OHV) use. Conservation efforts adopted by land managers often consist of setting aside a portion of a dune system that is off-limits to OHV use, but little work has been done showing the extent to which this protects native bee communities. A two-year study of bee communities on a Great Basin sand dune complex in Dugway Proving Ground located in northwestern Utah revealed low similarity index values between closely situated collecting plots (1–40 km apart). Similarity values ranged from 0.13 to 0.70 for species composition, and from 0.07 to 0.57 when similarity was weighted by abundance. Distance between plots had no significant relationship to similarity when richness and abundance were considered. Bee similarity between plots was significantly correlated with floral similarity. These results indicate that dune conservation strategies that preserve “representative” portions of dune systems may be insufficient to protect bees and the pollination services they provide.     

KT3D_H2O: A Program for Kriging Water Level Data Using Hydrologic Drift Terms

It is often necessary to estimate the zone of contribution to, or the capture zone developed by, pumped wells: for example, when evaluating pump-and-treat remedies and when developing wellhead protection areas for supply wells. Tonkin and Larson (2002) and Brochu and Marcotte (2003) describe a mapping-based method for estimating the capture zone of pumped wells, developed by combining universal kriging (kriging with a trend) with analytical expressions that describe the response of the potentiometric surface to certain applied stresses. This Methods Note describes (a) expansions to the techinque described by Tonkin and Larson (2002) ; (b) the concept of the capture frequency map (CFM), a technique that combines information from multiple capture zone maps into a single depiction of capture; (c) the development of a graphical user interface to facilitate the use of the methods described; and (d) the integration of these programs within the MapWindow geographic information system environment. An example application is presented that illustrates ground water level contours, capture zones, and a CFM prepared using the methods and software described.     

Evaluating ecological quality in the north-eastern Black Sea coastal zone

Anthropogenic pressures have resulted in measurable impacts on the coastal ecosystems of the northern (Sevastopol Bay, Ukraine) and eastern (Batumi aquatoria, Georgia) Black Sea. Indices suggest that major impacts are relatively localized and are comparable to similar situations in the northern Atlantic. In contrast, biodiversity was appreciably lower than from comparable north Atlantic waters. The number of macrobenthic species was typically round 50, less than half the number that might be expected from similar exercises in US or European waters. Site-specific indices likewise indicated a somewhat lower diversity within communities, yielding metrics which would indicate a measure of stress in N. Atlantic situations. Microbial status was generally good, although regions close to urbanisation did not comply with standards laid down in the current EC Bathing Water Directive (76/EC/160). Likewise viruses were more commonly, although not exclusively, associated with urban locations, as were phages. Microbial investigation of the sediments confirmed the presence of heterotrophic and oil-oxidising bacteria. Abundance of the latter was closely correlated to the degree of oil contamination of the sediments, and to temperature, although for both, the results showed that the increase in bacterial abundance did level off beyond a certain point. Numbers of oil-oxidising bacteria in the water column displayed a classical response to temperature, with abundance doubling over a 10-degree C rise in temperature. Overall the results suggest that while indices in current use are useful in evaluating coastal quality in the Black Sea, some adjustments would be necessary especially in the establishment of baseline or reference values.