Titan's methane cycle

Methane is key to sustaining Titan's thick nitrogen atmosphere. However, methane is destroyed and converted to heavier hydrocarbons irreversibly on a relatively short timescale of approximately 10-100 million years. Without the warming provided by CH₄-generated hydrocarbon hazes in the stratosphere and the pressure induced opacity in the infrared, particularly by CH₄-N₂ and H₂-N₂ collisions in the troposphere, the atmosphere could be gradually reduced to as low as tens of millibar pressure. An understanding of the source-sink cycle of methane is thus crucial to the evolutionary history of Titan and its atmosphere. In this paper we propose that a complex photochemical-meteorological-hydrogeochemical cycle of methane operates on Titan. We further suggest that although photochemistry leads to the loss of methane from the atmosphere, conversion to a global ocean of ethane is unlikely. The behavior of methane in the troposphere and the surface, as measured by the Cassini-Huygens gas chromatograph mass spectrometer, together with evidence of cryovolcanism reported by the Cassini visual and infrared mapping spectrometer, represents a “methalogical” cycle on Titan, somewhat akin to the hydrological cycle on Earth. In the absence of net loss to the interior, it would represent a closed cycle. However, a source is still needed to replenish the methane lost to photolysis. A hydrogeochemical source deep in the interior of Titan holds promise. It is well known that in serpentinization, hydration of ultramafic silicates in terrestrial oceans produces H_2(aq), whose reaction with carbon grains or carbon dioxide in the crustal pores produces methane gas. Appropriate geological, thermal, and pressure conditions could have existed in and below Titan's purported water-ammonia ocean for “low-temperature” serpentinization to occur in Titan's accretionary heating phase. On the other hand, impacts could trigger the process at high temperatures. In either instance, storage of methane as a stable clathrate-hydrate in Titan's interior for later release to the atmosphere is quite plausible. There is also some likelihood that the production of methane on Titan by serpentinization is a gradual and continuous on-going process.     

Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model

Regression-based statistical downscaling is a method broadly used to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models. Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainties linked with climatic variables is essential to climate impact studies. This study presents a procedure to characterize the uncertainty in regression-based statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature over a highly vulnerable area (semiarid catchment) in the west of Iran, based on two downscaling models: a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Biases in mean, variance, and wet/dry spells are estimated for downscaled data using vigorous statistical tests for 30 years of observed and downscaled daily precipitation and temperature data taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis predictors for the years of 1961 to 1990. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. In daily precipitation, downscaling uncertainties were evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their confidence intervals, cumulative frequency distributions of monthly mean of daily precipitation, and the distributions of monthly wet and dry days for observed and modeled daily precipitation. Results showed that uncertainty in downscaled precipitation is high, but simulation of daily temperature can reproduce extreme events accurately. Finally, this study shows that the SDSM is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % confidence level, while the ANN model is the least capable in this respect. This study attempts to test uncertainties of regression-based statistical downscaling techniques in a semiarid area and therefore contributes to an improvement of the quality of predictions of climate change impact assessment in regions of this type.     

Impacts on agriculture following the 1991 eruption of Vulcan Hudson, Patagonia: lessons for recovery

Large explosive eruptions have the potential to distribute heavy ashfalls across large areas, resulting in physical and chemical impacts on agriculture, and economic and psycho-social impacts on rural communities. This study investigates how affected agriculture and rural communities have adapted, absorbed and mitigated impacts following a range of ashfall thicknesses (>2 m?C<1 mm) from the 12?C15 August 1991 eruption of Vulcan Hudson, one of the largest eruptions of the twentieth century. An estimated 1 million livestock died after the eruption due to pasture burial by ashfall and ongoing suppression of vegetation recovery. Horticulturalists suffered ongoing damage to crops from wind-blown ash and changes to soil properties increased irrigation and cultivation requirements. Real or perceived impacts on human health and impacts on farm productivity from the ashfall resulted in evacuation of farms and small towns in the short term. Long-term farm abandonment occurred in areas of heavy ashfall (upper Ibáñez valley) and highly stressed farming systems, even where ashfall was relatively thin (<50 mm), such as the Argentine steppe. The mono-agricultural system of sheep farming in the steppe region had few options other than destocking, proving less resilient than the diverse high-intensity horticultural and pastoral mix in irrigated valleys, which allowed more rapid adaption through diversification of production. Farms with natural advantages and greater investment in capital improvements led to greater damage potential initially (at least in cost terms), but ultimately provided a greater capacity for response and recovery. Better soils, climate and significantly greater access to technological improvements such as cultivation tools, irrigation and wind breaks were advantageous, such as at Chile Chico (Chile), Los Antiguos and Perito Moreno (Argentina). Cultivation increased chemical and physical soil fertility, especially when used in combination with fertilisation and irrigation. Appropriate use of seeds and cropping techniques within the new soil and growing conditions was important. Government agencies had a vital role in the dissemination of information for appropriate farm management responses, ash chemistry analysis, evacuations and welfare, and in the longer term to provide technical and credit assistance to facilitate recovery.     

A Test of Bycatch Reduction Devices on Commercial Crab Pots in a Tidal Marsh Creek in Virginia

The effectiveness of bycatch reduction devices (BRDs) on commercial pots designed to capture blue crabs Callinectes sapidus was tested in the York River on Felgates Creek (37.2667 N, −76.5850 W) over the period 4 June through 31 July 2009. For each of 10 pairs of pots, one had BRDs affixed to all four entrance gapes and the other had none. Pots were baited approximately once each week but were sampled for blue crabs and bycatch 6 of 7 days each week for the duration of the study. More than one fourth of 1,643 total crabs were caught on the first day after baiting, and for these 7 days, no statistical difference was detected between either the number or size of legal-size crabs caught in BRD versus non-BRD pots. Of 51 Malaclemys terrapin and 44 fish caught as bycatch throughout the study, all but three fish were captured in non-BRD pots. BRDs exclude bycatch and may reduce incidental mortality of crabs in pots that are not tended regularly.     

Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the “Eileen” gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the “reference case” were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A “downside-scenario” which fails to identify viable production, an “upside-scenario” describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an “extreme upside scenario” assumes each well is exceptionally productive.Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability.Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71 BM³ (2.5 tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283 BM³ (10 tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years.Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An “extreme upside” case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research.     

The Geoarchaeology of Utica,Tunisia: The Paleogeography of the Mejerda Delta and Hypotheses Concerning the Location of the Ancient Harbor

Although the ancient site of Utica has been studied since the 19th century, the location of its harbors remains unresolved as they were buried under sediments as the Mejerda delta prograded and left Utica 10 km inland. Using relief data and a coring survey with sedimentological analysis, we identify the dynamics of the delta's progradation, which produced a double system of alluvial fans. These show that the ancient bay of Utica silted up faster and earlier than was thought, probably before the end of the Punic period. Combined with the radiocarbon dates from coring, this suggests that the harbor lay on the north‐western side of the Utica promontory, communicating with the sea by a marine corridor west of the northern compartment of the delta. As the infilling of the ancient bay progressed, this corridor narrowed until it disappeared completely in the early 5th/mid‐6th century A.D., when a peat bog developed on the northern side of the promontory, sealing the fate of Utica as a port. This relative environmental stability ended in the 9th–10th century A.D. when about 4 m of sediment, probably of fluvial origin, covered the peat bog, leaving the site more than 4.5 m above the local sea level.     

Photometric Mass Ratios of Eclipsing Binary Stars

Following a brief history of measurement of eclipsing binary mass ratios from light curves, we show that photometric mass ratios for overcontact and semi-detached binaries are reliable because the relative stellar radii, R/a, are accurately measured and not, as commonly claimed, because of information in the light variation outside eclipse. We explore the accuracy of photometric mass ratios by solving synthetic data of typical precisions for a semi-detached and an overcontact binary for orbital inclinations from 89^∘ down into the partial eclipse range.     

Using Foraminifera to estimate trends in ancient sea-levels

Sea‐level curves are powerful tools for correlation: rocks deposited at the peaks of global transgressions, otherwise known as maximum flooding surfaces, can be correlated theoretically from one region to another. This begs the question: given that geologists can estimate the change in sea‐level between one rock formation and the next, can they discern trends at a smaller scale, within formations? Here I outline how foraminifera can be used to draw time/sea‐level graphs.