Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.     

Combining Organic Matter Source and Relative Trophic Position Determinations to Explore Trophic Structure

Stable isotope ratios of carbon and sulfur were used to assess organic matter utilization of numerically abundant consumers present in Apalachicola Bay, FL, USA. These results were used to infer nitrogen isotopic enrichment of organic matter sources in an effort to establish baseline δ ¹⁵N enrichment for trophic evaluations. We compared results from concentration-independent and concentration-dependent mixing models and found that the two methods resulted in widely different conclusions about the importance of organic matter sources that varied ninefold in sulfur concentrations. Nitrogen isotopic enrichment was used to determine relative trophic positions of consumer organisms. Source elemental concentrations of nitrogen were also considered in the calculation of relative trophic levels in a concentration-dependent approach. Concentration-independent and concentration-dependent methods of calculating trophic results were compared. While relative trophic levels of individual species varied continuously from approximately 1.7 to 3.5, comparisons of trophic level among consumers indicated four possible trophic groupings. Filter feeders (mussels and oysters) made up the lowest trophic tier while teleost fishes made up the highest trophic tier. Invertebrates sampled were assigned intermediate nondiscrete trophic levels. Because δ ¹⁵N values of important organic matter sources in the system were similar, the concentration-independent and concentration-dependent methods did not result in significantly different conclusions about trophic level for any of the consumers examined. However, a comparison of the two methods applied to a hypothetical case found that differences in base δ ¹⁵N values ranging approximately 4‰ resulted in significantly different trophic-level assignments when comparing the concentration-dependent and concentration-independent methods of trophic-level calculations. Our results confirm that consideration of the elemental concentrations of the base organisms is an important factor in determining source contributions and may affect trophic-level calculations in systems with a sufficient range of base nitrogen enrichment. However, this result depended on the relative isotopic signatures of the chosen sources and their elemental concentrations and should be considered individually for each system.     

Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events

Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to ~0.70, well above the 95% significance level (~0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle–high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle.     

Oxygen isotope evidence for short-lived high-temperature fluid flow in the lower oceanic crust at fast-spreading ridges

Millimeter-scale amphibole veins in the lower oceanic crust record fracture-controlled fluid flow at high-temperatures but the importance of this fluid flow for the thermal and chemical evolution of the lower oceanic crust is unclear. In the section of lower oceanic crust recovered at Hess Deep from ODP Hole 894G, which formed at the fast-spreading East Pacific Rise, these veins are randomly distributed with an average spacing of  1 m. We unravel the history of fluid flow through one of these veins by combining in situ O-isotope analyses of wall-rock plagioclase with major element analyses, geothermometry and diffusion modeling. Thermometry indicates vein sealing by amphibole at  720 °C over a narrow temperature interval (± 20 °C). In situ O-isotope analyses by ion microprobe, with a precision of < 0.5‰, reveal zoning of O-isotopes in plagioclase adjacent to the vein. The zoning profiles can be reproduced using a diffusion model if the duration of O-isotope exchange was ≤ 100 yr. A similar interval of fluid–rock exchange is suggested by modeling potassium depletion in plagioclase adjacent to the vein. If representative of fracture controlled fluid flow in the lower oceanic crust the limited duration of fluid flow, and its occurrence over a narrow temperature interval, suggest that high-temperature fluid flow in this porosity network does not transport significant heat.     

Groundwater monitoring at the watershed scale: An evaluation of recharge and nonpoint source pollutant loading in the Clear Creek Watershed,Iowa

Determining the groundwater contribution of nonpoint source pollution at a watershed scale is a challenging issue. In this study, we utilized a top‐down approach to characterize representative groundwater response units (GRUs) based on land use and landscape position (e.g., upland, sideslope, or floodplain) in the 275‐km² Clear Creek Watershed, Iowa. Groundwater monitoring wells were then established along downslope transects in representative GRUs. This unique combination of top‐down/bottom‐up approaches allowed us to estimate groundwater pollutant loads at the watershed scale with minimal monitoring. For the 2015 study period, results indicated that more groundwater recharge occurred in the floodplain (404 mm) compared to the uplands or sideslopes (281 and 165 mm, respectively), irrespective of land use. Recharge in the floodplains consisted of 37% of the annual precipitation, whereas upland wells averaged 26% and sideslopes averaged 15% of the annual precipitation. Less recharge was found to occur beneath perennial grass compared to row crop and urbanized areas. Baseflow discharge accounted for 69% of the total NO₃‐N exported from the Clear Creek Watershed, with row crop areas contributing approximately 95% of the annual load. Orthophosphorus (OP) yields were approximately 0.72 kg/ha beneath urban and suburban areas, three times higher than those in row crop or perennial areas. Urban and suburban areas accounted for 21.4% of groundwater orthophosphorus and chloride loads in the watershed compared to only 8.5% of the land area. Overall, the groundwater load allocation model for baseflow nutrient discharge to Clear Creek can be used to target future nonpoint source load reduction strategies at the watershed scale. The use of GRUs can pinpoint better areas of concern for controlling nutrient loads.     

Identification of base‐excited structures using output‐only parameter estimation

This paper presents a new identification technique for the extraction of modal parameters of structural systems subjected to base excitation. The technique uses output‐only measurements of the structural response. A combined subspace‐maximum likelihood algorithm is developed and applied to a three‐degree‐of‐freedom simulation model. Five ensembles of synthetically generated input signals, representing varying input characteristics, are employed in Monte Carlo simulations to illustrate the applicability of the method. The technique is able to circumvent some of the difficulties arising from short data sets by employing the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to refine the subspace state estimates. This approach is motivated by successful application by previous authors on speech signals. Results indicate that, for certain system characteristics, more accurate pole estimates can be identified using the combined subspace‐EM formulation. In general, the damping ratios of the system are difficult to identify accurately due to limitations on data set length. The applicability of the technique to structural vibration signals is illustrated through the identification of seismic response data from the Vincent Thomas Bridge. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A reassessment of dynamic characteristics of the Quincy Bayview Bridge using output‐only identification techniques

A reassessment of the dynamic characteristics of the 542 m cable‐stayed Bayview Bridge in Quincy, Illinois, is presented using a newly developed output‐only system identification technique. The technique is applied to an extensive set of ambient vibration response data acquired from the bridge in 1987. Vertical, torsional and transverse modal frequencies of the deck are identified, and uncertainty in damping values are estimated using an automated procedure on several redundant measurements at four locations. Important practical implementation issues associated with the implementation of the procedure and selection of algorithm design parameters for stochastic subspace identification techniques are discussed. An overall mean and standard deviation of damping of 1.0±0.8% is estimated considering all identified vertical, torsional and transverse modes in the 0–2 Hz band. The mean damping for the fundamental vertical mode (0.37 Hz) is identified as 1.4±0.5%, and for the first coupled torsion–transverse mode (0.56 Hz) is identified as 1.1±0.8%. Variability in the damping estimates is shown to decrease as estimated modal RMS acceleration levels increase. Standard deviations on estimated damping range from 0.05% to 2%. The results are shown to be a substantial improvement in the evaluation of damping compared to earlier spectral analysis conducted on the same data set. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polar cap particle precipitation and aurora: Review and commentary

Polar rain has a beautiful set of symmetry properties, individually established, but not previously discussed collectively, which can be organized by a single unifying principle. The key polar rain properties are favored hemisphere (controlled by the interplanetary magnetic field B_x), dawn/dusk gradient (IMF B_y), merging rate (IMF B_z or more generally dΦ_MP/dt), nightside/dayside gradient, and seasonal effect. We argue that all five properties involve variants on a single theme: the further downstream a field line exits the magnetosphere (or less directly points toward the solar wind electron heat flux), the weaker the polar rain. This effect is the result of the requirements of charge quasi-neutrality, and because the ion thermal velocity declines and the tailward ion bulk flow velocity rises moving down tail from the frontside magnetopause.Polar cap arcs (or more properly, high-latitude sun-aligned arcs) are largely complementary to the polar rain, occurring most frequently when the dayside merging rate is low, and thus when polar rain is weak. Sun-aligned arcs are often considered as originating either in the polar rain or the expansion of the plasma sheet into the polar cap. In fact three quite distinct types of sun-aligned high-latitude arcs exist, two common, and one rare. One type of arc occurs as intensifications of the polar rain, and is common, but weak, typically <0.1 ergs/cm² s, and lacks associated ion precipitation. A second category of Sun-aligned arcs with energy flux >0.1 ergs/cm² s usually occurs adjacent to the auroral oval, and includes ion precipitation. The plasma regime of these common, and at times intense, arcs is often distinct from the oval which they abut. Convection alone does not specify the open/closed nature of these arcs, because multiple narrow convection reversals are common around such arcs, and the arcs themselves can be embedded within flows that are either sunward or anti-sunward. These observational facts do not neatly fit into either a plasma sheet origin or a polar rain origin (e.g., the necessity to abut the auroral oval, and the presence of ions does not fit the properties of polar rain, which can in any event be nearly absent for northward interplanetary magnetic field). One theory is that such arcs are associated with merging tailward of the cusp. Both of these common types of sun-aligned arcs fade within about 30 min of a southward IMF turning.The third, and rarest, category of sun-aligned arcs are intense, well detached from the auroral oval, contain plasma sheet origin ion precipitation as well as electrons, and persist for hours after a southward turning. These intense detached sun-aligned arcs can rapidly cross the polar cap, sometimes multiple times. Most events discussed in the literature as “theta-aurora” do not fit into this category (for example, although they may appear detached in images, they abut the oval in particle data, and do not have the persistence of detached events under southward IMF turnings). It is possible that no single theory can account for all three types of sun-aligned arcs.Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are at times used to demarcate polar cap open/closed boundaries. Although this works at times, examples exist where this method fails (e.g., very quiet conditions for which SEP reaches below L=4), and the method should be used with caution. Finally, it is shown that, although it is rare, the polar cap can at times completely close.