A new ice sheet model validated by remote sensing of the Greenland ice sheet

Accurate prediction of future sea level rise requires models that accurately reproduce and explain the recent observed dramatic ice sheet behaviours. This study presents a new multi-phase, multiple-rheology, scalable and extensible geofluid model of the Greenland ice sheet that shows the credential of successfully reproducing the mass loss rate derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the microwave remote sensed surface melt area over the past decade. Model simulated early 21st century surface ice flow compares satisfactorily with InSAR measurements. Accurate simulation of the three metrics simultaneously cannot be explained by fortunate model tuning and give us confidence in using this modelling system for projection of the future fate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Based on this fully adaptable three dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled prognostic ice model, we examined the flow sensitivity to granular basal sliding, and further identified that this leads to a positive feedback contributing to enhanced mass loss in a future warming climate. The rheological properties of ice depend sensitively on its temperature, thus we further verified modelâ?s temperature solver against in situ observations. Driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric parameters, the ice model simulated GrIS mass loss rate compares favourably with that derived from the GRACE measurements, or about ?147 km³/yr over the 2002–2008 period. Increase of the summer maximum melt area extent (SME) is indicative of expansion of the ablation zone. The modeled SME from year 1979 to 2006 compares well with the cross-polarized gradient ratio method (XPGR) observed melt area in terms of annual variabilities. A high correlation of 0.88 is found between the two time series. In the 30-year model simulation series, the surface melt exhibited large inter-annual and decadal variability, years 2002, 2005 and 2007 being three significant recent melt episodes.     

European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

Holocene environmental evolution of the SE Greenland Shelf North and South of the Denmark Strait: Irminger and East Greenland current interactions

Holocene climatic and paleoceanographic development of the SE Greenland Shelf is studied from cores MD99-2317 and MD99-2322, at sites north and south of the Denmark Strait, respectively. Lithofacies, IRD counts, calcium carbonate percentages, benthic and planktic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotope analyses, and summer SSTs reveal significant climate variations in the Holocene driven by declining solar insolation and its interaction with waning continental ice sheets, and changing atmospheric pressure patterns. Large changes in the East Greenland and Irminger Currents and the Greenland Ice Sheet are manifested as a 4-part division of the Holocene. An early Holocene cold interval dominated by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Polar Front retreat extends from 11.8 to 9.5 cal kyr BP. A cold interval from 9.5 to 8.1 cal kyr BP involved episodic cooling of the Irminger Current resulting from the last phases of Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation and delayed the Holocene optimum off East Greenland by 3 kyr relative to peak summer solar insolation, which likely helped to limit the early Holocene melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The period 8.1–3.5 cal kyr BP represents a climatic optimum interval of maximum Greenland Ice Sheet retreat and strong Irminger Current inflow to the Denmark Strait. Between 6.8 and 3.5 cal kyr BP, the Irminger Current penetrated further North into the Nordic Seas than has been observed in recent decades. This signal is consistent with diminished northerly winds, a weaker Greenland High and contracted subpolar gyre. By 5 cal kyr BP, periods of increased Polar Water and decreasing salinity in the Irminger Current suggest a transition toward expansion of the subpolar gyre and increased Polar Water in the EGC. The Neoglacial interval from 3.5 to 0.2 cal kyr BP was cold and variable with increased freshwater forcing from the Arctic Ocean, advance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and southward advance of the Polar Front. Enhanced northerly winds and a strengthened Greenland High are consistent with thicker and more extensive Polar Water and greatly diminished northward advection of Irminger Current in the Denmark Strait.     

Rhyacian (2.23–2.20 Ga) juvenile accretion in the southern São Francisco craton,Brazil: Geochemical and isotopic evidence from the Serrinha magmatic suite,Mineiro belt

The Serrinha magmatic suite (Mineiro belt) crops out in the southern edge of the São Francisco craton, comprising the Brito quartz-diorite, Brumado de Cima and Brumado de Baixo granodiorites, granophyres and felsic sub-volcanic and volcanic rocks, part of which intruded into the Nazareno greenstone belt. The suite rocks have petrographic features that are consistent with magma supercooling due to the low water content combined with volatile loss, leading to crystallization of quartz and alkaline feldspar at the rims of plagioclase phenocrysts (granophyric intergrowth). The investigated rocks are sub-alkaline, calc-alkaline and show low content in rare earth elements. The U–Pb zircon crystallization ages for the Brumado de Cima granodiorite [2227 ± 22 (23) Ma] and a coeval granophyre [2211 ± 22 (23) Ma], coupled with available single-zircon Pb evaporation ages for the Brito and Brumado de Baixo plutons, are significantly older than the “Minas orogeny” (ca. 2100–2050 Ga) of Quadrilátero Ferrífero area, eastward from the Serrinha suite. Our data establish an early Rhyacian event tectonically linked with the evolution of the Mineiro belt. The bulk Nd isotopic signature [low negative to positive ε_Nd(t) values] of the Serrinha samples are consistent with the important role of Paleoproterozoic mantle components in the magma genesis. The integrated geologic, geochemical and isotopic information suggests that Paleoproterozoic evolution of the Mineiro belt initiated in a passive continental margin basin with deposition of the Minas Supergroup at ca. 2500 Ma. This stage was succeeded by outboard rupture of the oceanic lithosphere with development and coalescence of progressively younger magmatic arcs during Rhyacian time. One of the earliest arcs formed the Serrinha suite. The tectonic collage of the Serrinha and Ritápolis (2190–2120 Ma) arcs produced the NE–SW Lenheiro shear zone, resulting in mylonitization and recrystallization of both the granitoid intrusions and host rocks. As a matter of fact juxtaposition of distinct magmatic units in age and origin took place along the Lenheiros structure in this sector of the Mineiro belt.     

Field Measurement of Dissolved Oxygen: A Comparison of Methods

The ability to confidently measure the concentration of dissolved oxygen (D.O.) in ground water is a key aspect of remedy selection and assessment. Presented here is a comparison of the commonly practiced methods for determining D.O. concentrations in ground water, including colorimetric, membrane-covered electrode, and modified Winkler techniques. The Winkler titration (azide and permanganate modifications) is the most accurate and precise technique for determining D.O. and is appropriate for applications with stringent data quality objectives. In addition, excellent correlation over a wide range of D.O. concentrations was found between Winkler titrations and colorimetric tests using the rhodazine D (below 1 part per million [ppm]) and indigo carmine reagents (above 1 ppm). Electrode measurements represent the simplest method for determining D.O. concentrations on a continuous basis and electrode determinations positively correlate with Winkler results above 1 ppm. Below 1 ppm, electrodes provide only a qualitative measure of low D.O. level, apparently due to slow electrode response.     

Evidence for constitutional supercooling from orthopyroxene - pigeonite - plagioclase relations in the Borgmassivet suite of western Dronning Maud Land,Antarctica

Summary The Kullen-type sills of western Dronning Maud land are up to 400 m thick and form part of the Meso- to Neoproterozoic Borgmassivet suite. They consist of a Basal, Cumulate, Central and Upper zone. The petrography of the Cumulate zone, with special emphasis on the occurrences at Hammer Heads in the Annandagstoppane area, is described. Microstructures, such as delicate chains of orthopyroxene primocrysts and an increase in grain size of plagioclase chadacrysts from the cores to the margins of postcumulus clinopyroxene oikocrysts, indicatein situ crystallization. Composite grains with orthopyroxene at the core, which is mantled, in turn, by inverted pigeonite, a second generation orthopyroxene and, on the outer margin, clinopyroxene in a reaction relation with the orthopyroxene, are sporadically developed.The relation between the composite structures and plagioclase nucleation and growth is investigated by the study of plagioclase grain size distributions, nucleation density and An compositions of plagioclase cores, which indicate that two periods of plagioclase nucleation occurred. The first period of nucleation, represented by plagioclase chadacrysts enclosed in primocrysts of orthopyroxene, occurred during supercooling following intrusion. Release of latent heat of crystallization resulted in an increase in magma temperature and a normal sequence of fractional crystallization in which orthopyroxene crystallization was succeeded by pigeonite. The second period of plagioclase nucleation depleted the interface liquid in the zone of crystallization of calcium. The composition of the interface liquid was thus changed from the compositional field from which pigeonite crystallized to that from which orthopyroxene crystallized (cf the liquidus boundaries in the system CaMgSi₂O₆-Mg₂SiO₄SiO₂ ofKushiro, 1972). This constitutional supercooling (Chalmers, 1964;Tiller, 1991) resulted in crystallization of orthopyroxene and the reverse crystallization sequence En-rich orthopyroxene -pigeonite - En-rich orthopyroxene, prior to reaction of the last-formed orthopyroxene with the liquid to form clinopyroxene and subsequent inversion of pigeonite. A possible crystallization sequence is discussed by making use of thespeculative Fo-Di-An-SiO₂ (forsterite-diopside-anorthite-silica) system ofMorse (1980).

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Orthopyroxen-Pigeonit-Plagioklas-Beziehungen in der Borgmassivet Suite des westlichen Dronning Maud Landes, Antarktis: Hinweise auf konstitutionelles Supercooling

Zusammenfassung Lagergänge des Kullen-Types im westlichen Dronning Maud Land sind bis zu 400m mächtig und sind Teil der meso- bis neoproterozoischen Borgmassivet-Abfolge. Sie bestehen aus einer basalen, einer Cumulat, einer zentralen und einer oberen Zone. Die Petrographie der Cumulat-Zone wird mit besonderer Betonung der Vorkommen von Hammer Heads im Annandagstoppane-Gebiet beschrieben. Mikrostrukturen, wie z.B. feinkörnige Ketten von Orthopyroxen-Primokristen und eine Zunahme in der Korngröße von Plagioklas-Chadakristen von den Kernen zu den Rändern in postcumulus Klinopyroxen-Oikokristen, weisen aufin situ Kristallisation hin. Zusammengesetzte Körner mit Orthopyroxen im Kern, der von invertiertem Pigeonit umgeben ist, einer zweiten Generation Orthopyroxen, und, am äußeren Rand, Klinopyroxen in Reaktionsbeziehung mit Orthopyroxen, kommen sporadisch vor.Die Beziehung zwischen diesen zusammengesetzten Strukturen und der Nukleation, sowie dem Wachstum von Plagioklas wurde durch das Studium der Plagioklaskorngrößen, der Nukleationsdichte und der An-Zusammensetzung von Plagioklas-Kernen untersucht. Diese weisen darauf hin, daß zwei Perioden von Plagioklas-Nukleation vorgekommen sind. Die erste Nukleationsperiode wird durch Plagioklas-Chadakristen, die in Primokristen von Orthopyroxen eingeschlossen sind repräsentiert, und fand während einer Phase von Supercooling im Anschluß an die Intrusion statt. Das Freiwerden latenter Kristallisationswärme führte zu einer Zunahme der Magmentemperatur und zu einer normalen Abfolge fraktionierter Kristallisation, in der auf die Orthopyroxen-Kristallisation Pigeonit folgte. Die zweite Phase der Plagioklasnukleation führte zu einer Verarmung der Schmelze an Kalzium in der Kristallisationszone. Die Zusammensetzung der Schmelze bewegte sich so aus dem Pigeonitfeld, in das, aus dem Orthopyroxen kristallisierte (siehe die Liquidus Grenzen im System CaMgSi2O₆-Mg₂SiO₄-SO₂ von Kushiro, 1972). Dieses konstitutionelle Supercooling (Chalmers, 1964;Tiller, 1991) führte zur Kristallisation von Orthopyroxen, und der reversen Kristallisationsabfolge En-reicher Orthopyroxen-Pigeonit-En-reicher Orthopyroxen, noch vor der Reaktion des zuletzt gebildeten Orthopyroxenes mit der Schmelze, das zur Entstehung von Klinopyroxen und zur anschließenden Inversion von Pigeonit führte. Eine mögliche Kristallisationsabfolge wird auf der Basis desspekulativen Fo-Di-An-SiO₂ (Forsterit-Diopsid-Anorthit-Quartz) Systems von Morse (1980) diskutiert.

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With 12 Figures     

Planning in Jordan: Coping with uncertainty

Jordan is an Islamic state with planning based on Islamic principles. The execution of plans, though, has been constrained by geopolitical realities. In the last decade Jordan has moved from strictly sectoral planning to a strongly focused system of regional planning in order to achieve more growth in less developed regions. The prospects for these regions and the country as a whole will turn on the success of the peace process in the region.     

Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).     

Dispersion in sheared Gaussian homogeneous turbulence

By integrating the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to a Lagrangian stochastic trajectory model, which is consitent with the selection criterion of Thomson (1987), an analytical solution is given for the joint probability density functionp(x_i, u_i, t) for the position (x _i) and velocity (u _i) at timet of a neutral particle released into linearly-sheared, homogeneous turbulence. The solution is compared with dispersion experiments conforming to the restrictions of the model and with a shortrange experiment performed in highly inhomogeneous turbulence within and above a model crop canopy. When the turbulence intensity, wind shear and covariance are strong, the present solution is better than simpler solutions (Taylor, 1921; Durbin, 1983) and as good as any numerical Lagrangian stochastic model yet reported.