灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中,本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据,系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明,本文算法预测精度高,可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。     

A fuzzy approach to reliability based design of storm water drain network

This paper proposes an approach to estimate reliability of a storm water drain (SWD) network in fuzzy framework. It involves: (i) use of proposed fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation (FMCS) methodology to estimate fuzzy reliability of conduits in the network, (ii) construction of a reliability block diagram (RBD) for the network (system) using suggested guidelines, and (iii) use of the RBD and reliability estimates of the conduits in the network to compute system reliability based on a proposed procedure. In addition, a system reliability based methodology is proposed for design/retrofitting of SWD network by optimization of its conduit dimensions. Conventionally used reliability analysis approaches assume that the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of performance function (marginal safety) of conduits follows Gaussian distribution, which cannot be ensured in the real world scenario. The proposed approach alleviates the need for making such assumptions and can account for linguistic ambiguity in variables defining the performance function. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a hypothetical SWD network and a real network in Bangalore, India. Comparison of the results obtained from the proposed approach with those from conventional Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) reliability assessment approach indicated that the estimate of system reliability and conduit reliability are higher with FMCS approach. Consequently, conduit dimensions required to attain required system (network) reliability could be expected to be lower when FMCS approach is used for designing or retrofitting a system.     

Uncertainties in mean discharges from two large South American rivers due to rating curve variability

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of land application of sewage sludge on phosphorus (P) losses during intense rainfall. Three rainfall simulations (40 mm h^?1 of 30 min duration) were conducted on a field amended with sewage sludge. The overland flow water (OFW) was monitored and sampled every minute. The suspended solid, the dissolved and total phosphorus (respectively SS, TP and DP) concentrations were analysed. The forms of particulate bound P (PP) were investigated. Several results stem from this experiment: (a) sludge application induced a large increase in the DP content of the OFW; the concentrations obtained (0.15–0.57 mg l^?1) were shown to result from desorption processes from the SS; and (b) in contrast, sludge application affected neither the SS content nor the TP concentration of OFW (9.5 g mg l^?1 P, consisting of PP for 95%). However, sludge preserved the structure of soil surface and led to a 45% decrease in runoff rate (150 m³ ha^?1 collected on the test surface compared to 290 m³ ha^?1 on a reference). This indirectly reduced TP losses (2.7 kg ha^?1 on the reference surface compared to 1.4 kg ha^?1 on the test surface).     

Diagenetic disturbances of marine sedimentary records from methane‐influenced environments in the Fram Strait as indications of variation in seep intensity during the last 35 000 years

The effect of seeping of methane on marine sediment records has been studied in four gravity cores from Vestnesa Ridge, Svalbard margin. The area shows acoustic signs in the form of flares indicating active methane gas seepage. For a better understanding of the timing and variability of the flux of methane in the past and the effects on potential proxies, a detailed study of the diagenetic processes that may affect the composition and structure of both sediments and foraminiferal shells is needed. Here we discuss deep‐sea records from methane‐influenced environments in three cores from an active and very heterogeneous seep‐area (pockmark) and one core from outside the pockmark for background. The results include the distribution and stable isotopes of authigenic carbonates and of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, magnetic susceptibility, AMS‐¹⁴C dates, sedimentary data and biostratigraphy. Extremely low δ¹³C values recorded in both benthic and planktonic foraminifera during the Bølling‐Allerød interstadials indicate possible increased methane flux beginning at late Heinrich event H1. The recorded low values are mainly a result of diagenetic overprint by methane‐derived authigenic carbonates. The δ¹⁸O signals of authigenic carbonates are close to those of foraminiferal calcite and thus the δ¹⁸O records remain a valid stratigraphical tool in methane seep sites, except in the case of severely encrusted samples. In addition, the records from the active pockmark show nearly constant values of low magnetic susceptibility in contrast to higher and more variable magnetic susceptibility values from the control station and other published records from normal sediments west of Svalbard. This phenomenon is probably caused by dissolution of magnetic minerals in the reducing environmental conditions of methane seep sediments, associated with anaerobic oxidation of methane and formation of paramagnetic minerals (pyrite). This process enables magnetic susceptibility to be used as a common diagnostic tool for identifying methane‐related palaeo‐reductive environments.     

石羊河流域冰冻圈融水对出山径流的贡献及影响

气候变暖背景下,随着冰冻圈的持续萎缩,冰冻圈融水已成为寒区径流的重要组成部分和寒区水文过程的关键影响因子。以石羊河流域为研究区,2013年7月~2014年6月在系统采集大气降水、河水、泉水、井水、水库水、渠系水、冻土活动层地下水和冰雪融水样品基础上,应用稳定同位素示踪技术,定量评估了石羊河流域冰雪融水和冻土活动层地下水对出山径流的贡献量,结果表明：流域内大气降水、冻土活动层地下水和冰雪融水充分混合后以地下水的形式补给径流,大气降水、冻土活动层地下水和冰雪融水对出山径流的补给率分别为77%、20%和3%。依据多年冻土下界将山区分为冰雪冻土带和植被带,分析证实冰雪冻土带输出水量贡献了出山径流的82%,而植被带贡献了18%。流域出山口径流的补给带为海拔3300m以上,中游浅层地下水的补给带为海拔3700m以上。冰雪融水和冻土活动层地下水对7条支流出山径流的贡献率因自然地理状况而明显差异,东大河、西营河和金塔河降水对出山径流的贡献率分别为72%、78%和87%,相应的冻土活动层地下水贡献率为21%、17%和12%,冰雪融水为7%、5%和1%。降水对西大河、黄羊河、古浪河和大靖河出山径流贡献率分别为84%、91%、76%和73%,冻土活动层地下水对出山径流的贡献率依次为16%、9%、24%和27%。研究确认冻土活动层地下水已成为内陆河流域径流的重要组成部分,未来亟须进一步加强冻土活动层地下水水文机制的研究。

     

Estimating contamination potential at waste-disposal sites using a natural tracer

Chloride is a conservative, natural tracer found in precipitation, soil water, and groundwater. The chloride mass-balance approach, long used to estimate groundwater recharge, also provides a downward flux of moisture and solute at sites where there is a potential for groundwater contamination. The flux is obtained by dividing the product of the mean annual precipitation and total annual chloride input (via precipitation and dust) by the mean soil-water chloride content. Chlorideversusdepth profiles can also be used to determine optimum depth of waste burial to minimize deterioration of waste containers. The method has been applied to three sites in arid alluvial-basin settings in New Mexico, U.S.A.: a proposed landfill, a battery recycling plant, and a hazardous-waste disposal facility. It is concluded that the method is reliable, economical, and practical. Furthermore, it can be applied at any stage in the development of a site. The chloride method should apply in any recharge area where the base of the root zone is separated from the water table by at least 3 m or so and chloride in soil water comes only from precipitation and dust.     

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

A numerical study of contrail development

In this study, the formation of a contrail from an aircraft flying near the tropopause is simulated using a three-dimensional mesoscale atmospheric model including a very complex scheme of parameterized cloud microphysical processes. Two different primary ice nucleation parameterizations for deposition nucleation, condensation freezing, and contact freezing are applied. The model-predicted ice concentrations are compared to data measured during the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE), 1989.     

Potential for Solute Retardation on Monitoring Well Sand Packs and Its Effect on Purging Requirements for Ground Water Sampling

Monitoring well sand packs are theoretically capable of retarding metal ions and organic contaminants. If this retardation does indeed occur it may have a significant effect on the purging requirements of newly installed monitoring wells. Calculations based on mass balance and retardation concepts demonstrate that if common guidelines for well purging are followed, contaminants may not be detected or may be detected in lower concentrations than are actually present in the ground water. This problem is greatest in relatively shallow wells installed in low to moderate permeability materials. In most cases, the effect of solute retardation in the sand pack can be avoided simply by additional purging prior to the first sampling of the monitoring well. Common purging guidelines can then be applied to subsequent samplings. The methodology outlined in this paper can be used to calculate the purging requirements of existing monitoring wells or it may be applied to alternative monitoring well designs to test which will require the smallest volume of purged water.