Instability model for recurring large and great earthquakes in southern California

The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.     

Genetic relationship of rift-stage crustal structure, terrane accretion, and foreland tectonics along the southern Appalachian-Ouachita orogen

Abrupt along-strike variations in tectonostratigraphic composition, internal structural style, and detachment level in the southern Appalachian and Ouachita foreland thrust belts are defined at a large-scale bend in strike and a truncation of Ouachita structures by the frontal Appalachian thrust fault. The along-strike variations correspond to differences in the pre-orogenic rifted Laurentian margin, in the history and nature of terrane accretion, and in the response of the foreland to these differences. Within the Ouachita embayment of the Laurentian margin, diachronous arc-continent collision migrated northwestward along a rift-stage transform margin from the Black Warrior foreland basin on the southeast in Late Mississippian time to a short-wavelength, high-amplitude foreland basin (Arkoma basin) on the northwest in front of the Ouachita thrust-belt salient in Early-Middle Pennsylvanian time. Off-shelf, deep-water strata of both passive-margin and synorogenic facies comprise an accretionary prism and subduction complex, and the Ouachita allochthon consists of mud-dominated thrust sheets that are internally disharmonic and folded. The allochthon of off-shelf strata was thrust over the passive-margin carbonate shelf, which remains in the Ouachita footwall. Along the southeast side of the Alabama promontory of the Laurentian margin, passive-margin shelf carbonates are imbricated in the Appalachian thrust belt, which is characterized by internally coherent thrust sheets and high-amplitude frontal ramps. The palinspastic extent of shelf-carbonate rocks corresponds to the extent of structurally shallow basement rocks on the upper-plate rift-stage margin of the Alabama promontory of Laurentian crust. Terranes accreted to the Laurentian margin during the Taconic and Acadian orogenies were driven over the shallow basement by continent-continent collision of Laurentia with Africa (Gondwana). Emplacement of the thrust-translated terranes tectonically stripped and replaced the shelf carbonate. The frontal thrust fault of the Appalachian thrust belt truncates the southeastern end of the slightly older frontal Ouachita thrust belt, as well as the southeastern part of the greater Black Warrior basin in the Ouachita foreland. Shallow basement beneath the Appalachian thrust belt extends cratonward beneath the low-amplitude Appalachian foreland basin.     

Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

Ionospheric conditions

A general analysis of ionospheric conditions has been made in the light of possible ionic reactions occurring in the upper atmosphere. Data obtained on various parameters, such as ionic production and recombination, show that precise knowledge of the spectral distribution of solar radiation is needed and that other experimental determinations on dissociative recombinations are required.

The ionic complexity of the ionosphere is underlined by describing how the atomic ions O⁺ and N⁺ react with N₂, O₂ and NO molecules. The behavior of the molecular ions N⁺₂, O⁺₂and NO⁺depends on a group of simultaneous processes involving charge transfers and ionatom interchanges which are more important than dissociative recombinations. The altitude distribution of ions is exemplified by discussing the relative importance of various loss coefficients in the D-, E- and F-regions. It is seen that molecular nitrogen ions are subject to important charge transfer processes, that nitric oxide ions are always final products destroyed only by dissociative recombination. Additionally, the entire production of atomic oxygen ions is related to the photoionization of molecular nitrogen. Some information is also given on possible anomalies in the ratio of O⁺₂ and NO⁺ densities in the lower ionosphere. From the lack of sufficient experimental information on ionic processes it is shown that a precise analysis of ionospheric behavior remains highly speculative.     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Formation of the Bencubbin polymict meteoritic breccia

The Bencubbin meteorite is a polymict breccia consisting of a host fraction of ~60% metal and ~40% ferromagnesian silicates and a selection of carbonaceous, ordinary and ‘enstatite’ chondritic clasts. Concentrations of 27 elements were determined by neutron activation in replicate samples of the host silicates and the ordinary and carbonaceous chondritic clasts; 12 elements were determined in the host metal. Compositional data for the ordinary chondrite clast indicate a classification of LL4 ± 1. Refractory element data for the carbonaceous chondrite clast indicate that it belongs to the CI-CM-CO clan; its volatile element abundances are intermediate between those of CM and CO chondrites. Abundances of nonvolatile elements in the silicate host are similar to those in the carbonaceous chondrite clast and in CM chondrites; the rare earths are unfractionated. We conclude that it is not achondritic as previously designated, but chondritic and that it is probably related to the CI-CM-CO clan; its volatile abundances are lower than those in CO chondrites. Oxygen isotope data are consistent with these classifications. Host metal in Bencubbin and in the closely related Weatherford meteorite has low abundances of moderately volatile siderophiles; among iron meteorite groups its nearest relative is group IIIF.We suggest that Bencubbin and Weatherford formed as a result of an impact event on a carbonaceous chondrite regolith. The impact generated an ‘instant magma’ that trapped and surrounded regolithic clasts to form the polymict breccia. The parent of this ‘magma’ was probably the regolith itself, perhaps mainly consisting of the so-called ‘enstatite’ chondrite materials. Accretion of such a variety of materials to a small parent body was probably only possible in the asteroid belt.     

Structure and dynamics of the Bok globule B335

CO maps of the Bok globule B335 are presented and used to derive its density profile, mass distribution, and rotational velocity structure. It is found that the cloud is in nearly hydrostatic equilibrium with a density profile that varies roughly as r^?1 in the core and r^?3 in the envelope. The observed rotation is unimportant in the force balance at the present stage of evolution.     

Crustal structure of the Ruby Mountains and southern Carlin Trend region, Nevada, from magnetotelluric data

We have collected about 150 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings in northeastern Nevada in the region of the Ruby Mountains metamorphic core complex uplift and southern Carlin mineral trend, in an effort to illuminate controls on core complex evolution and deposition of world-class gold deposits. The region has experienced a broad range of tectonic events including several periods of compressional and extensional deformation, which have contributed to the total expression of electrical resistivity. Most of the soundings reside in three east–west profiles across increasing degrees of core uplift to the north (Bald Mountain, Harrison Pass, and Secret Pass latitudes). One short cross-line was also taken to assess an east–west structure to the north of the northern profile. Model resistivity cross-sections were derived from the MT data using a 2-D inversion algorithm, which damps departures of model parameters from an a priori structure. Geological interpretation of the resistivity combines previous seismic, potential field and isotope models, structural and petrological models for regional compression and extension, and detailed structural/stratigraphic interpretations incorporating drilling for petroleum and mineral exploration. To first order, the resistivity structure is one of a moderately conductive, Phanerozoic sedimentary section fundamentally disrupted by intrusion and uplift of resistive crystalline rocks. Late Devonian and early Mississippian shales of the Pilot and Chainman Formations together form an important conductive marker sequence in the stratigraphy and show pronounced increases in conductance (conductivity–thickness product) from east to west. These increases are attributed to graphitization caused by Elko–Sevier era compressional shear deformation and possibly by intrusive heating. The resistive crystalline central massifs adjoin the host stratigraphy across crustal-scale, steeply dipping fault zones. The zones provide pathways to the lower crust for heterogeneous, upper crustal induced, electric current flow. Resistive core complex crust appears steeply bounded under the middle of the neighboring grabens and not to deepen at a shallow angle to arbitrary distances to the west. The numerous crustal breaks imaged with MT may contribute to the low effective elastic thickness (T_e) estimated regionally for the Great Basin and exemplify the mid-crustal, steeply dipping slip zones in which major earthquakes nucleate. An east–west oriented conductor in the crystalline upper crust spans the East Humboldt Range and northern Ruby Mountains. The conductor may be related to nearby graphitic metasediments, with possible alteration by middle Tertiary magmatism. Lower crustal resistivity everywhere under the profiles is low and appears quasi one-dimensional. It is consistent with a low rock porosity (<1 vol.%) containing hypersaline brines and possible water-undersaturated crustal melts, residual to the mostly Miocene regional extension. The resistivity expression of the southern Carlin Trend (CT) in the Pinon Range is not a simple lineament but rather a family of structures attributed to Eocene intrusion, stratal deformation, and alteration/graphitization. Substantial reactivation or overprinting by core complex uplift or Basin–Range extensional events seems likely. We concur with others that the Carlin Trend may result in part from overlap of the large Eocene Northeast Nevada Volcanic Field with Precambrian–Paleozoic deep-water clastic source rocks thickening abruptly to the west of the Pinon Range, and projecting to the north–northwest.     

The last British Ice Sheet: growth, maximum extent and deglaciation

The growth, maximum lateral extent and deglaciation of the last British Ice Sheet (BIS) has been reconstructed using sediment, faunal and stable isotope methods from a sedimentary record recovered from the Barra Fan, north-west Scotland. During a phase of ice sheet expansion postdating the early "warmth" of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), ice rafting events, operating with a cyclicity of approximately 1500 years, are interspersed between warm, carbonate-rich interstadials operating with a strong Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cyclicity. The data suggest that the BIS expanded westwards to the outer continental shelf break shortly after 30 Ky BP (before present) and remained there until about 15 Ky BP. Within MIS 2, as the ice sheet grew to its maximum extent, the pronounced periodicities which characterize MIS 3 are lost from the record. The exact timing of the Last Glacial Maximum is difficult to define in this record; but maxima in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) ع⁸O are observed between 21-17 Ky BP. A massive discharge of ice-rafted detritus, coincident with Heinrich event 1, is observed at about 16 Ky BP. Deglaciation of the margin is complete by about 15 Ky BP and surface waters warm rapidly after this date.