Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

One-dimensional baroclinically unstable waves on the Gulf Stream potential vorticity gradient near Cape Hatteras

Application of linear baroclinic instability theory to the observed distributions of velocity, stratification, and potential vorticity in the Gulf Stream near 74° W is successful in predicting the time and length scales of the most rapidly growing disturbances. A continuously-stratified, one-dimensional model with realistic bottom slope predicts propagation speeds of 10–50 cm s⁻¹ associated with two regimes of rapid temporal growth centered at periods of 28 days and 5–7 days. This prediction is consistent with observations of the propagation and growth of Gulf Stream meanders derived from inverted echo sounder measurements in this region. The instability model also predicts that for realistic bottom slopes the baroclinic energy transfer should be weakly negative (eddy-to-mean) in deep water, but for low-frequency waves should change to significant positive (mean-to-eddy) transfer above depths of 1500 m, consistent with observations.     

Implementation of a non-hydrostatic, adaptive-grid dynamics core in CAM3. Part I: comparison of dynamics cores in aqua-planet simulations

We report on our implementation of EULAG as a dynamical core in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG’s name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over the existing dynamical cores in CAM. This paper uses a series of aqua-planet simulations to demonstrate that CAM-EULAG results compare favorably with those from CAM simulations at standard CAM resolution that use current finite volume or Eulerian-spectral dynamical core options. We also show that the grid adaptivity implemented in CAM3-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection.     

Occurrence and distribution of sulfur in peat-forming environments of southern Florida

Cores and surface samples of peats from the Everglades—Mangrove region of Southern Florida were analyzed for total sulfur and pyritic sulfur. These values were compared with the petrographic-botanical components of the peats as determined from point-counts of oriented microtome sections. Pyrite occurs as individual euhedral crystals, loosely packed framboids, and lenses or crusts of minute crystals. Framboids and minute crystals are often associated with organic matter and sometimes with bacteria and fungi. Pyrite tends to selectively occur in void spaces in or between peat tissues. In samples containing very small amounts of pyrite, framboidal pyrite is the prevalent form.Marine to brackish peats contain the highest pyrite and total sulfur contents, with brackish peats generally containing more pyrite than marine peats. Pyrite tends to be lower in all peats within 30 cm of the surface, whether marine or brackish.Burial of freshwater peats beneath marine or brackish peats tends to increase the total sulfur and pyritic sulfur in the underlying peats. Burial beneath brackish-water, clay-rich deposits (such as splays) tends to increase total sulfur and pyritic sulfur in the underlying deposits more than burial beneath less clay-rich deposits.     

Navy Fan, California Borderland: Growth pattern and depositional processes

Navy Fan is a Late Pleistocene sand-rich fan prograding into an irregularly shaped basin in the southern California Borderland. The middle fan, characterized by one active and two abandoned “distributary” channels and associated lobe deposits, at present onlaps part of the basin slope directly opposite from the upper-fan valley, thus dividing the lower-fan/basin-plain regions into two separate parts of different depths. Fine-scale mesotopographic relief on the fan surface and correlation of individual turbidite beds through nearly 40 cores on the middle and lower fan provide data for evaluating the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional processes. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area     

General conservation equations for multi-phase systems: 3. Constitutive theory for porous media flow

Equations which describe single phase fluid flow and transport through an elastic porous media are obtained by applying constitutive theory to a set of general multiphase mass, momentum, energy, and entropy equations. Linearization of these equations yields a set of equations solvable upon specification of the material coefficients which arise. Further restriction of the flow to small velocities proves that Darcy's law is a special case of the general momentum balance.