基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存的备件管理决策

基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存理论,分析了备件需求与库存管理。提出了基于部件可靠度的动态需求模型;以部件的寿命服从指数分布为例,结合实际生产中备件的使用情况,通过确定备件储备的时间点,动态确定各周期备件的需求量。在确定备件动态需求量的基础上,采用多阶段动态库存理论确定了订货次数和每次订货数量,使库存量更符合实际和趋于合理。通过算例分析,给出了最小库存费用,表明基于部件可靠度和多阶段动态库存的备件管理具有一定的实际意义。     

CPLat: first operational experimental processing center for SIRGAS in Argentina

The SIRGAS permanent GPS network which is in fact the IGS network densification for the American continent, consists today of more than 200 stations covering the continent and islands. It is currently processed by the IGS RNAAC SIR centre at Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut producing weekly free solutions relying on IGS final orbits and EOP that contribute to the ITRF through IGS. By August 2006, the SIRGAS Working Group I had accepted five proposals for experimental processing centers within the region that would collaborate with IGS RNAAC SIR. One of them, Centro de Procesamiento La Plata (CPLat) in Argentina, began processing 60 stations on October 2006. By January 2007 CPLat reached operational capability, delivering weekly free solution SINEX files, with an internal consistency of 1.5 mm average for the horizontal components, and 3 mm in the vertical. Comparisons with IGS global and IGS RNAAC SIR weekly solutions were taken as external consistency indications, showing average RMS residuals of 1.8, 2.4 and 5 mm for the north, east, and vertical component, respectively. Analysis and comparison of adjusted solution time series from CPLat and other processing centers has proved to be highly valuable for solution QC, namely detection and identification of station anomalous behavior or modelling problems. These procedures will ensure the maintenance of the performance specifications for CPLat solutions. Action is being taken in order to guarantee the continuity of this effort beyond the experimental phase.     

The curse of physiology—challenges and opportunities in the interpretation of geochemical data from mollusk shells

Physiology corrupts geochemical records of mollusk shells in many ways, e.g., by actively controlling the incorporation of trace elements in the skeleton. However, the effects of variable biomineralization rates and growth cessation have largely remained unconsidered. Mediated by endogenous timekeeping mechanisms, mollusks stop growing skeletal material on a regular basis ranging from ultradian to annual timescales. During growth cessation, the shells do not record environmental conditions. Shell growth also stops when environmental conditions are beyond the physiological tolerance of the organism, e.g., above and below genetically determined, species-specific thermal extremes where shell growth slows and eventually ceases. Such growth disruptions can occur at non-periodic time intervals. Due to growth retardations and halts, proxy records of mollusk shells are thus incomplete, and reconstructed environmental amplitudes prone to truncation. Furthermore, environmental records are biased toward the physiological optimum of the animal. Favorable environmental conditions increase shell growth, whereas adverse environmental conditions result in reduced shell production and lowered overall metabolism. Not least, the duration of the growing season and overall growth rate decrease as the mollusk grows older. Mathematical modeling approaches can significantly improve proxy records obtained from mollusk shells. For example, if the duration of growth cessation is known, it may be possible to model the missing environmental record. It is also fairly easy to account for age-related growth trends, or variable time-averaging in different portions of the shell. However, a major premise for a reliable interpretation of proxy records from a mollusk shell or other organisms secreting biogenic hard parts is a proper understanding of the physiology, and of course, a high-resolution record of the many different environmental factors that may influence physiology and shell growth. The present paper reviews examples from the literature, and unpublished data on how physiology influences geochemical proxy records from mollusk shells, and presents methods how to eliminate such adverse effects.     

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimations from the site of the Eastern Anatolia Observatory<Superscript>∗</Superscript> (DAG), a new astronomical observatory in Turkey

We present preliminary statistics on the precipitable water vapor (PWV) content over the Karakaya Hills in Erzurum city, where the largest optical and near-infrared astronomical telescope in Turkey will be operated. Since the observatory will observe in the near-infrared (NIR), it is intended to perform PWV measurements of the atmosphere above the site by using signal delays in Global Positioning System (GPS) communication. The analysis of the GPS data recorded on the summit for almost one year shows that the atmosphere over the site of the observatory, which has an altitude of 3170 m, has favorable conditions for NIR observations. From GPS measurements, we report that the site had an average PWV of 3.2 mm and a median PWV of 2.7 mm between October 6, 2016, and June 15, 2017. We also present the time dependency of the PWV content and the correlations between the amount of PWV and the other meteorological records gathered from radiosonde flights and ground-based measurements.     

Assessments on slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations near a small settlement (Turkey)

In this study, the mechanisms of slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations at location of a planned tunnel portal in the northwest region of Turkey were assessed, and stability of the current slopes which has impacts on safety of a settlement (village) and agricultural fields was investigated. In the first stage of the study, in order to identify the geological units and structural properties of the sedimentary rocks in the area, to clarify the mechanisms of instabilities and to characterize discontinuity and rock mass properties field works were conducted. In this content, geotechnical boreholes, geophysical explorations between the boreholes, line surveys to explore discontinuity properties, preparation of slope profiles using topographical techniques and sampling of rock blocks and discontinuity planes were performed. In the second stage, laboratory tests were carried out on the samples to determine the geomechnical properties of the slope forming materials and discontinuities. Then, back analyses of the instabilities were made to assess the responsible shear strength parameters of the geological units during failures by considering laboratory shear test results too. Based on the backanalyses of the failures, the strength properties of the slope debris were estimated, and it has been clarified that the residual shear strength properties are the factors controlling slip mechanism along the beddings. Following the stability analyses, it is understood that a further instability along the mass or bedding planes in the failed and redesigned area are not expected, if the current slope geometry is not changed. However, safety factor calculated for the slope in the debris is 1.1 which is well below the recommended value in the literature. The minimum safety factor for currently stable slopes which were cut at the eastern part of the failed area is 1.22 which is also less than that suggested in literature. Some remedial measures such as mini-pile or slope flattening are suggested after analyses to increase the factor of safety for this part below the settlement.     

Snow carrots after the Chelyabinsk event and model implications for highly porous solar system objects

After the catastrophic disruption of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid, small fragments formed funnels in the snow layer covering the ground. We constrain the pre‐impact characteristics of the fragments by simulating their atmospheric descent with the atmospheric entry model. Fragments resulting from catastrophic breakup may lose about 90% of their initial mass due to ablation and reach the snow vertically with a free‐fall velocity in the range of 30–90 m s^?1. The fall time of the fragments is much longer than their cooling time, and, as a consequence, fragments have the same temperature as the lower atmosphere, i.e., of about ?20 °C. Then, we use the shock physics code iSALE to model the penetration of fragments into fluffy snow, the formation of a funnel and a zone of denser snow lining its walls. We examine the influence of several material parameters of snow and present our best‐fit model by comparing funnel depth and funnel wall characteristics with observations. In addition, we suggest a viscous flow approximation to estimate funnel depth dependence on the meteorite mass. We discuss temperature gradient metamorphism as a possible mechanism which allows to fill the funnels with denser snow and to form the observed “snow carrots.” This natural experiment also helps us to calibrate the iSALE code for simulating impacts into highly porous matter in the solar system including tracks in the aerogel catchers of the Stardust mission and possible impact craters on the 67P/Churyumov‐Gerasimenko comet observed recently by the Rosetta mission.     

Solar Energetic Particle Events with Protons Above 500 MeV Between 1995 and 2015 Measured with SOHO/EPHIN

The Sun is an effective particle accelerator that produces solar energetic particle (SEP) events, during which particles of up to several GeVs can be observed. These events, when they are observed at Earth with the neutron monitor network, are called ground-level enhancements (GLEs). Although these events with their high-energy component have been investigated for several decades, a clear relation between the spectral shape of the SEPs outside the Earth’s magnetosphere and the increase in neutron monitor count rate has yet to be established. Hence, an analysis of these events is of interest for the space weather and for the solar event community.In this article, SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV were identified using data obtained with the Electron Proton Helium Instrument (EPHIN) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) between 1995 and 2015. For a statistical analysis, onset times were determined for the events and the proton energy spectra were derived and fitted with a power law.As a result, we present a list of 42 SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV measured with the EPHIN instrument onboard SOHO. The statistical analysis based on the fitted spectral slopes and absolute intensities is discussed, with special emphasis on whether an event has been observed as a GLE. Furthermore, we are able to determine that the derived intensity at 500 MeV and the observed increase in neutron monitor count rate are correlated for a subset of events.     

Observations of a Radio-Quiet Solar Preflare

The preflare phase of the flare SOL2011-08-09T03:52 is unique in its long duration, in that it was covered by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and because it showed three well-developed soft X-ray (SXR) peaks. No hard X-rays (HXR) are observed in the preflare phase. Here we report that no associated radio emission at 17 GHz was found either, despite the higher sensitivity of the radio instrument. The ratio between the SXR peaks and the upper limit of the radio peaks is higher by more than one order of magnitude than the ratio in regular flares. The result suggests that the ratio between acceleration and heating in the preflare phase was different than in regular flares. Acceleration to relativistic energies, if any, occurred with lower efficiency.     

Central place preference by social geographic groups with reference to the tributary area of Shibuya,Southwest Tokyo

Conclusions Central place preference by social geographic groups is in the Tokyo area less determined by social status than by age and life cycles differentiated by sex.In case of the tributary area of Shibuya a simple classification into young people (male and female bachelors) and married people (husbands and housewives) indicates essential differences in central place preferences between these groups.The bachelors, particularly the young men, are most important for central place orientations in that they show distinctive spatial behavioural patterns in terms of complexity, mobility and intensity of distance-movements. The young people being employed — today joculously called dokushin kizoku (bachelors' aristocracy) because of their salary raised remarkably as well as of their extensive concumer demands and high buying power — are representative for the present-day economically independent young generation. The bachelors judge urban center attractiveness on the basis of shopping facilities and also in terms of atmosphere — meeting friends, strolling through town and amusing themselves. The young people are very much courted by commercial enterprises and are regarded as special trend setters having great influence on the image and vitality of Tokyo's inner urban centers.Most attractive for the young people are the ring centers. In the southwestern suburban areas Shibuya predominates; however generally speaking it is Shinjuku, the western and leading (ring)-center, which draws the young people most strongly. Special centers such as Harajuku, Aoyama and Roppongi are also preferred by this group, often in combination with a ring-center visit. Towards the inner city core (Ginza-Nihonbashi) central place preferences chiefly of the young male bachelors are declining gradually.Compared with young people the married people prefer the ring centers only slightly before the Ginza area, which for shopping is primarily visited by housewives, for going out mainly by husbands. Particularly in the inner city core near the main office districts a typical feature for Tokyo of central place preference is evident. For the salaryman — the most representative business type in the Tokyo area — going out is identical with not going home. This phenomenon depends on the place of work in two aspects. First, spatially in terms of a close connection between office and inner city amusement/shopping centers and additionally distance-movements towards a ring center nearest of the place of work or residence. Second, socially — social activities after working hours mainly carried out with colleagues result in a behavioural pattern, in which a clear differentiation between company and private life appears to be difficult. For not going home there are many reasons — among others the constricted living conditions of Japanese homes as Westerners believe — however, other factors play a much more important role: (i) Mainly the extremely long commuting distances, which allow the salaryman a real leaving home to go out only on Sundays or holidays. Other reasons for this typically Japanese feature closely related to inner city tavern and bar visits, may be seen in (ii) the traditionally very limited participation of Japanese housewives to their husbands' out-door social activities; (iii) a system of charging and crediting expenses to one's personal bank account or the company account; (iv) the personal atmosphere of taverns and bars providing the best chances for communication/relaxation and for overcoming stress and frustrations experienced in the office.Shopping is particularly for housewives the most important motivation for visiting urban centers, in this respect two Japanese characteristics should be mentioned: First, fashion and being well-groomed are, as far as the mass of people particularly the young women is concerned, more highly esteemed than in other urban societies. As a consequence good clothes are much in demand. Purchases of these kinds of articles are most often made in department stores and cause the longest distance-movements. Second, in rank of central goods next to fashion and quality clothes follow standard gifts such as seibo and chugen. The purchase of these articles is apart from the unique custom of giving gifts twice a year typically Japanese also in so far as it contradicts the least-effort criterion in central place theory. Though these patterns mostly bought by housewives or middle-aged and older people are substantially more of daily or periodical than episodical demand, they are related to surprisingly long distance-movements because of usually being bought for image reasons in leading department stores located in higher-ranking more distant urban centers.Typical behaviour for all groups visiting higher-order urban centers is an often used combination of shopping and taking part in out-door activities such as meeting friends/acquaintances, strolling around, going to the cinema or other show performances, eating, drinking and chatting together. This is due to the outstanding facilities available not only in retail-trade but also in the gastronomic, entertainment and amusement sectors.Taken all together, complexity and intensity of central place preferences in Tokyo reflect the higher and different attractiveness of Japanese urban centers compared with that of other urban societies. The urban centers are highly esteemed because of their excellent facilities as well as of their vitality, crowds and activity. These latter characteristics are summarized by the word nigiyaka meaning vivacity, which is most typical for Japanese urban centers. The inner city centers of Tokyo can be regarded in the true sense of this term as urban foci compensating for diverse problems such as environmental pollution or lack of inner urban green areas, making life in the most densely populated area of the world worthwhile.