A near‐annual palaeohydrological study based on testate amoebae from a sub‐alpine mire: surface wetness and the role of climate during the instrumental period

We present the first testate amoeba‐based palaeohydrological reconstruction from the Swiss Alps, and the first depth to the water table (DWT) calibration dataset for this region. Compared to existing models, our new calibration dataset performs well (RMSEP = 4.88), despite the length of the water table gradient covered (53 cm). The present‐day topography and vegetation of the study mire Mauntschas suggest that it is partly ombrotrophic (large Sphagnum fuscum hummocks, one of which was the coring site) but mostly under the minerotrophic influence of springs in the mire and runoff from the surrounding area. Ombrotrophic Sphagnum fuscum hummocks developed at the sampling site only during the last 50 years, when testate amoebae indicate a shift towards dry and/or acid conditions. Prior to AD 1950 the water table was much higher, suggesting that the influence of the mineral‐rich water prevented the development of ombrotrophic hummocks. The reconstructed DWT correlated with Pinus cembra pollen accumulation rates, suggesting that testate amoebae living on the mire and P. cembra growing outside of it partly respond to the same factor(s). Finally, temperature trends from the nearby meteorological station paralleled trends in reconstructed DWT. However, contrary to other studies made on raised bogs of northwestern Europe, the highest correlation was observed for winter temperature, despite the fact that testate amoebae would more logically respond to moisture conditions during the growing season. The observed correlation with winter temperature might reflect a control of winter severity on surface moisture during at least the first part of the growing season, through snow melt and soil frost phenomena influencing run‐off. More ecohydrological work on sub‐alpine mires is needed to understand the relationships between climate, testate amoebae and peatland development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal evolution of backward erosion piping in small-scale experiments

Backward erosion piping (BEP) is a form of internal erosion which can lead to failure of levees and dams. Most research focused on the critical head difference at which piping failure occurs. Two aspects have received less attention, namely (1) the temporal evolution of piping and (2) the local hydraulic conditions in the pipe and at the pipe tip. We present small-scale experiments with local pressure measurements in the pipe during equilibrium and pipe progression for different sands and degrees of hydraulic loading. The experiments confirm a positive relation between progression rate and grain size as well as the degree of hydraulic overloading. Furthermore, the analysis of local hydraulic conditions shows that the rate of BEP progression can be better explained by the bed shear stress and sediment transport in the pipe than by the seepage velocity at the pipe tip. The experiments show how different processes contribute to the piping process and these insights provide a first empirical basis for modeling pipe development using coupled seepage-sediment transport equations.

     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

In-flight calibration of the HIFI diplexers

HIFI is a heterodyne spectrometer aboard the Herschel Space Observatory, providing high-spectral-resolution capabilities. Of its seven frequency bands, four (bands 3, 4, 6, and 7) employ Martin-Puplett diplexers to combine sky signal and local oscillator at the two linear polarizations H and V, prior to feeding them into the mixers (receivers). The optical path difference in each of these 8 diplexers must be tuned to the observed frequency. The required actuator currents were determined in flight before the start of routine science observations. We here report on regular (roughly quarterly) engineering test observations to validate the repeatability of the HIFI diplexers during the routine phase of Herschel operations. We find the optical path difference to be stable to within 0.4 % of the relevant wavelength, typically at the sub-micron level. We conclude that the repeatability and precision of the diplexer tuning mechanism are so high that science data are in no way negatively affected. With the diplexer calibration established and validated, this line of reasoning can be reversed, and the diplexers can be used as relative spectrometers to measure the local-oscillator frequency, i.e., to check the spectral purity of the local oscillator across the diplexer bands. This was done from before launch out to the last months of cryogenic operations in space.     

A mathematical model for orientation data from macroscopic conical folds

Statistical techniques are developed to classify folds into one of three classes: cylindrical, conical, or neither. A translated version of Bingham's distribution on the sphere is applied to orientation data fron conical folds. Iterative least-squares techniques are used to determine the best-fitting small circle (or cone), and confidence intervals for the cone axis and half apical angle are developed. Examples of a cylindrical and a conical fold are given. Another fold is neither cylindrical nor conical and is classified as pseudoconical. Relationships between the Bingham and Fisher distributions are presented.     

Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Quality and reliable drought prediction is essential for mitigation strategies and planning in disaster-stricken regions globally. Prediction models such as empirical or data-driven models play a fundamental role in forecasting drought. However, selecting a suitable prediction model remains a challenge because of the lack of succinct information available on model performance. Therefore, this review evaluated the best model for drought forecasting and determined which differences if any were present in model performance using standardised precipitation index (SPI). In addition, the most effective combination of the SPI with its respective timescale and lead time was investigated. The effectiveness of data-driven models was analysed using meta-regression analysis by applying a linear mixed model to the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error of the validated model results. Wavelet-transformed neural networks had superior performance with the highest correlation and minimum error. Preprocessing data to eliminate non-stationarity performed substantially better than did the regular artificial neural network (ANN) model. Additionally, the best timescale to calculate the SPI was 24 and 12 months and a lead time of 1–3 months provided the most accurate forecasts. Studies from China and Sicily had the most variation based on geographical location as a random effect; while studies from India rendered consistent results overall. Variation in the result can be attributed to geographical differences, seasonal influence, incorporation of climate indices and author bias. Conclusively, this review recommends use of the wavelet-based ANN (WANN) model to forecast drought indices.

     

The Upper Oligocene of Antigua: the volcanic to limestone transition in a limestone Caribbee

Antigua is a small island at the northern end of the Lesser Antilles chain. Its geology is largely limited to the Upper Oligocene and it records with unusual fidelity the transition from island arc volcanism to quiescence and limestone deposition. Despite the apparent limitation of a rock record confined to a short stratigraphical interval, Antigua has a geodiversity that ranges from thick andesites through silicified logs and freshwater snails in cherts to limestones that include both shallow and deeper water facies, and fine karstic features.     

Automated Time Series Modeling for Piezometers in the National Database of the Netherlands

The Geological Survey of the Netherlands (TNO-GSN) maintains a public national database of groundwater head observations. Transfer function-noise modeling has been applied to the time series in order to extract the impulse response functions for precipitation and evaporation for each piezometer. An automated procedure has been developed to assess the quality of the time series and of the models. The time series models of sufficient quality offer far more homogeneous data on the piezometric head than the original measurements. This allows for improved mapping of the head at a specific date or of characteristics of the head like average summer or winter levels. Also, the separation of precipitation and evaporation from other influences is useful for groundwater management and policy. The individual time series models are available online with interactive graphics ( https://www.grondwatertools.nl/grondwatertools-viewer ). The spatial patterns of the impulse response function characteristics can support analyses of the groundwater system.