Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

The Confrontation between General Relativity and Experiment

We review the experimental evidence for Einstein's general relativity. Tests of the Einstein Equivalence Principle support the postulates of curved spacetime and bound variations of fundamental constants in space and time, while solar-system experiments strongly confirm weak-field general relativity. The Binary Pulsar provides tests of gravitational-wave damping and of strong-field general relativity. Future experiments, such as the Gravity Probe B Gyroscope Experiment, a satellite test of the Equivalence principle, and tests of gravity at short distance to look for extra spatial dimensions could further constrain alternatives to general relativity. Laser interferometric gravitational-wave observatories on Earth and in space may provide new tests of scalar-tensor gravity and graviton-mass theories via the properties of gravitational waves. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Superrotation of the thermosphere by global deposition of meteoroids?

Mitra has suggested that the Superrotation of the upper atmosphere is caused by a deposition of meteoroids. The meteoroids are assumed to impart to the atmosphere the excess of their orbital angular momentum per unit mass over the Earth's angular momentum per unit mass. The process is to take place in the height region above 150 km. Only above this height is a Superrotation of the atmosphere observed. In this report the forces that tend to make the atmosphere corotate with the Earth are analysed. It is shown that the most important of these forces is ion drag, and not viscous drag as postulated by Mitra. As the net angular spin momentum imparted by the meteoroids seems to be less than Mitra's estimate and its main part is applied to the atmosphere at altitudes much lower than 150 km, the hypothesis that meteoroids provide a significant contribution to the Superrotation is rejected.     

Effect of hypersaline cooling canals on aquifer salinization

The combined effect of salinity and temperature on density-driven convection was evaluated in this study for a large (28 km²) cooling canal system (CCS) at a thermoelectric power plant in south Florida, USA. A two-dimensional cross-section model was used to evaluate the effects of hydraulic heterogeneities, cooling canal salinity, heat transport, and cooling canal geometry on aquifer salinization and movement of the freshwater/saltwater interface. Four different hydraulic conductivity configurations, with values ranging over several orders of magnitude, were evaluated with the model. For all of the conditions evaluated, aquifer salinization was initiated by the formation of dense, hypersaline fingers that descended downward to the bottom of the 30-m thick aquifer. Saline fingers reached the aquifer bottom in times ranging from a few days to approximately 5 years for the lowest hydraulic conductivity case. Aquifer salinization continued after saline fingers reached the aquifer bottom and coalesced by lateral movement away from the site. Model results showed that aquifer salinization was most sensitive to aquifer heterogeneity, but was also sensitive to CCS salinity, temperature, and configuration.