Variable Grid Method: An Intuitive Approach for Simultaneously Quantifying and Visualizing Spatial Data and Uncertainty

Efforts to develop applications and methods that effectively quantify and communicate uncertainty associated with spatial data remains a focus within many scientific communities. However, the inherent complexity of uncertainty makes it difficult to define, characterize, and represent. Frequently, the products of spatial and spatio‐temporal data are presented without a clear explanation of the inherent uncertainty underlying the data. As uses and applications for spatial data and their products continues to increase, so does the importance for utilizing reliable approaches to effectively communicate spatial data along with their inherent uncertainties. To address this need, the Variable Grid Method (VGM) was developed as an intuitive approach that simultaneously communicates both spatial patterns and trends and the uncertainty associated with data or their analyses. This article details the VGM approach and demonstrates the utility of the VGM to provide critical information about the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data, necessary to support the increasing utilization of spatial information for a wide range of research and other needs.     

African Easterly Jet South: control,maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves

The African Easterly Jet South (AEJ-S) is an important feature of the central African mid tropospheric circulation and has been identified as a key contributor to convection over the region. This study uses 21-year (1983–2003) Reanalysis data sets of ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA2 to establish mechanisms related to AEJ-S dynamics. Results demonstrate that AEJ-S is dominated by rotational circulation and is maintained by a mid-level high that forms over the Kalahari region during September to November. Because of the role played by this high pressure system in the AEJ-S dynamics, an effort is made to understand how this anticyclone develops. We show that this mid-tropospheric high over the Kalahari region is established in response to lower tropospheric dry convection over the region from September to November. At the core of this high, anticyclonic circulation is induced and maintains AEJ-S located at the northern flank of the high. A link between AEJ-S dynamics and southern subtropical westerly waves is also revealed. It is shown that, when waves amplify over the southern subtropics, they modify lower tropospheric heating. Depending on the phase of the wave, this modifies the cross latitude temperature gradient throughout equatorial regions, therefore modulating the intensity of the jet. By clarifying the mechanisms that govern the AEJ-S, this research work contributes to insight into central Africa climate mechanisms and also suggests a link between central Africa and Southern Africa climate systems. This research work also improves the foundation of new mechanisms that help to identify suitable metrics for the evaluation of Global models over the Central Africa region.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Observed composition of the ionosphere of Venus: Implications for the ionization peak and the maintenance of the nightside ionosphere

Across the nightside of Venus, daily measurements from the PV Orbiter Ion Mass Spectrometer often indicate an ionosphere of relatively abundant concentration, with a composition characteristic of the dayside ionosphere. Such conditions are interspersed by other days on which the ionosphere appears to largely “disappear” down to about 200 km, with ion concentrations at lower heights also much reduced. These characteristics, coupled with observations of strong day to night flows of O⁺ in the upper ionosphere, support arguments that ion transport from the dayside is important for the maintenance of the nightside ionosphere. Also, U.S. and Soviet observations of nightside energetic electron fluxes have prompted consideration of impact ionization as an additional nightside ion source. The details of the ion and neutral composition at low altitudes on the nightside provide an important input for further analysis of the maintenance process. In the range 140–160 km, strong concentrations of O₂⁺ and NO⁺ indicate that the ionization peak is at times composed of at least two prominent ion species. Nightside concentrations of O₂⁺ and NO⁺ as large as 10⁵ and 10⁴/cm³, respectively, appear to require sources in addition to that provided by transport. The most probable sources are considered briefly, and no satisfactory explanation is yet found for the observed NO⁺ concentrations. Further analysis beyond the scope of this paper is required to resolve this issue.     

Neoproterozoic metamorphism and deformation at the southeastern margin of the East European Craton,Uralides, Russia

The eastern margin of the East European Craton (EEC) has a long lasting geological record of Precambrian age. Archaean and Proterozoic strata are exposed in the western fold-and-thrust belt of the Uralides and are known from drill cores and geophysical data below the Palaeozoic cover in the Uralides and its western foredeep. In the southern Uralides, sedimentary, metamorphic and magmatic rocks of Riphean and Vendian age occur in the Bashkirian Mega-anticlinorium (BMA) and the Beloretzk Terrane. In the eastern part of the BMA (Yamantau anticlinorium) and the Beloretzk Terrane, K-Ar ages of the <2-µm-size fraction of phyllites (potassic white mica) and slates (illite) give evidence for a complex pre-Uralian metamorphic and deformational history of the Precambrian basement at the southeastern margin of the EEC. Interpretation of the K-Ar ages considered the variation of secondary foliation and the diagenetic to metamorphic grade. In the Yamantau anticlinorium, the greenschist-facies metamorphism of the Mesoproterozoic siliciclastic rocks is of Early Neoproterozoic origin (about 970 Ma) and the S1 cleavage formation of Late Neoproterozoic (about 550 Ma). The second wide-spaced cleavage is of Uralian origin. In the central and western part of the BMA, the diagenetic to incipient metamorphic grade developed in Late Neoproterozoic time. In post-Uralian time, Proterozoic siliciclastic rocks with a cleavage of Uralian age have not been exhumed to the surface of the BMA. Late Neoproterozoic thrusts and faults within the eastern margin of the EEC are reactivated during the Uralian deformation.     

The REMIND-R model: the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation—first-best vs. second-best worlds

Can near-term public support of renewable energy technologies contain the increase of mitigation costs due to delays of implementing emission caps at the global level? To answer this question we design a set of first and second best scenarios to analyze the impact of early deployment of renewable energy technologies on welfare and emission timing to achieve atmospheric carbon stabilization by 2100. We use the global multiregional energy?Ceconomy?Cclimate hybrid model REMIND-R as a tool for this analysis. An important design feature of the policy scenarios is the timing of climate policy. Immediate climate policy contains the mitigation costs at less than 1% even if the CO₂ concentration target is 410?ppm by 2100. Delayed climate policy increases the costs significantly because the absence of a strong carbon price signal continues the carbon intensive growth path. The additional costs can be decreased by early technology policies supporting renewable energy technologies because emissions grow less, alternative energy technologies are increased in capacity and their costs are reduced through learning by doing. The effects of early technology policy are different in scenarios with immediate carbon pricing. In the case of delayed climate policy, the emission path can be brought closer to the first-best solution, whereas in the case of immediate climate policy additional technology policy would lead to deviations from the optimal emission path. Hence, technology policy in the delayed climate policy case reduces costs, but in the case of immediate climate policy they increase. However, the near-term emission reductions are smaller in the case of delayed climate policies. At the regional level the effects on mitigation costs are heterogeneously distributed. For the USA and Europe early technology policy has a positive welfare effect for immediate and delayed climate policies. In contrast, India looses in both cases. China loses in the case of immediate climate policy, but profits in the delayed case. Early support of renewable energy technologies devalues the stock of emission allowances, and this effect is considerable for delayed climate policies. In combination with the initial allocation rule of contraction and convergence a relatively well-endowed country like India loses and potential importers like the EU gain from early renewable deployment.     

The GREGOR polarimetric calibration unit

The new Solar telescope GREGOR is designed to observe small‐scale dynamic magnetic structures below a size of 70 km on the Sun with high spectral resolution and polarimetric accuracy. For this purpose, the polarimetric concept of GREGOR is based on a combination of post‐focus polarimeters with pre‐focus equipment for high precision calibration. The Leibniz‐Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam developed the GREGOR calibration unit which is an integral part of the telescope. We give an overview of the function and design of the calibration unit and present the results of extensive testing series done in the Solar Observatory “Einsteinturm” and at GREGOR (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy of tektites

Tektite glasses are investigated using ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. Room temperature spectra analysis is performed using two complementary analytical methods based on two-dimensional distributions of both isomer shift and quadrupole splitting. No a priori correlation between the two hyperfine parameters is considered. The first method, based on a shape independent distribution, provides the justification for the Gaussian distribution shape used in the second method. No ferric iron contribution is evidenced by Mössbauer spectra analysis in these samples, although several criteria are used. Ferrous iron sites are shown to be continuously distributed between four- and five-fold co-ordinated sites.