Open Principle for Large High-Resolution Solar Telescopes

Vacuum solar telescopes solve the problem of image deterioration inside the telescope due to refractive index fluctuations of the air heated by the solar light. However, such telescopes have a practical diameter limit somewhat over 1 m. The Dutch Open Telescope (DOT) was the pioneering demonstrator of the open-telescope technology without need of vacuum, now pursued in the German GREGOR. Important ingredients for this technology are primary beam completely open to natural wind flow, stiff but still open design by principal stiff overall geometries in combination with carefully designed joints and completely open-foldable dome constructions based on tensioned strong cloth. Further developments to large sizes are made within the framework of the design study for a European Solar Telescope (EST).     

The impact of weak synoptic forcing on the valley-wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley

This paper investigates the impact of weak synoptic-scale forcing on the thermally induced valley-wind circulation in the Alpine Inn Valley and one of its largest tributaries, the Wipp Valley. To this end, high-resolution numerical simulations with realistic topography but idealized large-scale atmospheric conditions are performed. The large-scale flow has a speed increasing linearly from 5 m s^?1 at sea level to 12.5 m s^?1 at tropopause level, but its direction is varied between each experiment. For reference, an experiment without large-scale winds is conducted as well. The results indicate that the sensitivity to ambient flow forcing differs substantially between the Inn Valley and the Wipp Valley. The valley-wind circulation of the Inn Valley is found to be fairly robust against weak ambient forcing, changing by a much smaller amount than the along-valley component of the imposed large-scale flow. The valley wind tends to be intensified (weakened) when the ambient flow is aligned with (opposite to) the local valley orientation. However, the flow response is complicated by larger-scale interactions of the ambient flow with the Alpine massif. Most notably, northerly and northwesterly flow is deflected around the Alps, leading to the formation of a low-level jet along the northern edge of the Alps which in turn affects the valley-wind circulation in the lower Inn Valley. For the Wipp Valley, which is oriented approximately normal to the Alpine crest line and constitutes a deep gap in the Alpine crest, two distinctly different flow regimes are found depending on whether the large-scale flow has a significant southerly component or not. In the absence of a southerly flow component, the valley-wind circulation is similarly robust against ambient forcing as in the Inn Valley, with a fairly weak response of the local wind speeds. However, southerly ambient flow tends to force continuous downvalley (southerly) wind in the Wipp Valley. The flow dynamics can then be described as a pressure-driven gap flow during the day and as a mixture between katabatic flow and gap flow during the night. The responsible pressure forcing arises from the larger-scale interaction of the ambient flow with the Alpine massif, with southerly flow causing lifting on the southern side of the Alps and subsidence in the north.     

Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia

A comparison of two approaches for determining probabilistic climate change impacts is presented. In the first approach, ensemble climate projections are applied directly as inputs to an impact model and the risk of impact is computed from the resulting ensemble of outcomes. As this can involve large numbers of projections, the approach may prove to be impractical when applied to complex impact models with demanding input requirements. The second approach is to construct an impact response surface based on a sensitivity analysis of the impact model with respect to changes in key climatic variables, and then to superimpose probabilistic projections of future climate onto the response surface to assess the risk of impact. To illustrate this comparison, an impact model describing the spatial distribution of palsas in Fennoscandia was applied to estimate the risk of palsa disappearance. Palsas are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone and susceptible to rapid decline due to regional warming. Probabilities of climate changes were derived from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections using a re-sampling method. Results indicated that the response surface approach, though introducing additional uncertainty, gave risk estimates of area decline for palsa suitability that were comparable to those obtained using multiple simulations with the original palsa model. It was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that a decline of area suitable for palsas to less than half of the baseline distribution will occur by the 2030s and likely (>66%) that all suitable areas will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century under scenarios of medium (A1B) and moderately high (A2) emissions. For a low emissions (B1) scenario, it was more likely than not (>50%) that conditions over a small fraction of the current palsa distribution would remain suitable until the end of the twenty-first century.     

The variability of European floods since AD 1500

The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified; 1540–1600, 1640–1700, 1730–1790, 1790–1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension.     

Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.     

Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland

This work studied the temporal and spatial variability of the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland under current and changing climatic conditions until the end of this century. The study was based on a snow accumulation model in which cumulative precipitation, air temperature and wind speed were used as input variables. The risk was analyzed in terms of the number of days per year when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded 20 kg m^???2. Based on the risk, the forest area and mean carbon stock of seedling, young thinning and advanced thinning stands at risk were calculated. Furthermore, the number of 5-day periods, when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded a risk limit, was calculated for the current and changing climatic conditions in order to study the frequency of damaging snowfalls. Compared to the baseline period 1961–1990, the risk of snow-induced forest damage and the amount of damaging snowfalls were predicted to decrease from the first 30-year period (1991–2020) onwards. Over the whole country, the mean annual number of risk days decreased by 11%, 23% and 56% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In the most hazardous areas in north-western and north-eastern Finland, the number of risk days decreased from the baseline period of over 30 days to about 8 days per year at the end of the century. Correspondingly, the shares of the forest area at risk were 1.9%, 2.0% and 1.0% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively. The highest mean annual carbon stocks of young stands at risk were found in central, north-eastern and north-western Finland in the first and second 30-year period, varying between 0.6 and 1.2 Mg C ha^???1 year^???1, meaning at highest 3% of the mean carbon stock (Mg C stem wood ha^???1) of those areas. This study showed that although the risk of snow-induced forest damage was mainly affected by changes in critical weather events, the development of growing stock under the changing climatic conditions also had an effect on the risk assessment. However, timely management of forest stands in the areas with a high risk of snow-induced damage contributes to the trees’ increased resistance to the damage.     

The impact of the PBL scheme and the vertical distribution of model layers on simulations of Alpine foehn

Summary This paper investigates the influence of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization and the vertical distribution of model layers on simulations of an Alpine foehn case that was observed during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) in autumn 1999. The study is based on the PSU/NCAR MM5 modelling system and combines five different PBL schemes with three model layer settings, which mainly differ in the height above ground of the lowest model level (z ₁). Specifically, z ₁ takes values of about 7 m, 22 m and 36 m, and the experiments with z ₁ = 7 m are set up such that the second model level is located at z = 36 m. To assess if the different model setups have a systematic impact on the model performance, the simulation results are compared against wind lidar, radiosonde and surface measurements gathered along the Austrian Wipp Valley. Moreover, the dependence of the simulated wind and temperature fields at a given height (36 m above ground) on z ₁ is examined for several different regions. Our validation results show that at least over the Wipp Valley, the dependence of the model skill on z ₁ tends to be larger and more systematic than the impact of the PBL scheme. The agreement of the simulated wind field with observations tends to benefit from moving the lowest model layer closer to the ground, which appears to be related to the dependence of lee-side flow separation on z ₁. However, the simulated 2 m-temperatures are closest to observations for the intermediate z ₁ of 22 m. This is mainly related to the fact that the simulated low-level temperatures decrease systematically with decreasing z ₁ for all PBL schemes, turning a positive bias at z ₁ = 36 m into a negative bias at z ₁ = 7 m. The systematic z ₁-dependence is also observed for the temperatures at a fixed height of 36 m, indicating a deficiency in the self-consistency of the model results that is not related to a specific PBL formulation. Possible reasons for this deficiency are discussed in the paper. On the other hand, a systematic z ₁-dependence of the 36-m wind speed is encountered only for one out of the five PBL schemes. This turns out to be related to an unrealistic profile of the vertical mixing coefficient. Correspondence: Günther Z?ngl, Meteorologisches Institut der Universitat München, 80333 München, Germany     

Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)

Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions.     

From Discrete Gravity Survey Data to a High-resolution Gravity Field Representation in the Nordic-Baltic Region

The deduction of a regularly spaced gravity anomaly grid from scattered survey data is studied, addressing mainly two aspects: reduction of gravity to anomalies and subsequent interpolation by various methods. The problem is illustrated in a heterogeneous study area and contrasting test areas including mountains, low terrains, and a marine area. Provided with realistic error estimates, Least Squares Collocation interpolation of Residual Terrain Model anomalies yields the highest quality gravity grid. In most cases, the Bouguer reduction and other interpolation methods tested are equally viable. However, spline-based interpolation should be avoided in marine areas with trackwise survey data.