The estimation of snow hazard and load faces the small sample size effect because of the short snow depth record at a station. To reduce such an effect, we propose to estimate the return period value of the annual maximum ground snow depth S, sT, for Canada sites by applying the regional frequency analysis (RFA) and the region of influence approach (ROIA). The use of RFA and ROIA to map Canadian snow hazard is new. The comparison of their performance for snow hazard mapping has not been explored in the literature. We also consider the at-site analysis approach (ASA) for estimating sT by using three often used probability distributions for S. A comparison of the estimated sT by using the three approaches (ASA, RFA, ROIA) indicates that there is considerable scatter between the estimated sT value although the identified overall spatial trends of sT are similar. It is shown that the two-parameter lognormal distribution for S at most Canadian sites, based on the at-site analysis, is preferred; this differs from the Gumbel distribution used to develop the design snow load in Canadian structural design code. The new findings indicate that it is valuable to consider the lognormal distribution for developing design snow load for Canadian sites.
本文应用WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting—Chemistry)模式研究中国东部地区气溶胶及其部分组分(硫酸盐、硝酸盐和黑碳气溶胶)在天气尺度下的辐射强迫和对地面气温的影响。5个无明显降水时间段(2006年8月23~25日、2008年11月10~12日、2008年12月16~18日、2009年1月15~17日和2009年4月27~29日)的模拟显示,气溶胶浓度呈现显著的白天低,夜间高的日变化特征,且北方区域(29.8°~42.6°N,110.2°~120.3°E)平均PM2.5近地面浓度(40~80 μg m-3)高于南方区域(22.3°~29.9°N,109.7°~120.2°E,30~47 μg m-3)。气溶胶对地面2 m温度(地面气温)有明显的降温效果,在早上08:00(北京时,下同)和下午17:00左右最为显著,最高可降低约0.2~1 K,同时气溶胶的参与改善了模式对地面气温的模拟。本文还通过对2006年8月23~25日一次个例的模拟,定量分析了气溶胶及其部分组分(硫酸盐、硝酸盐和黑碳气溶胶)的总天气效应(直接效应+间接效应)、直接效应和间接效应分别对到达地面的短波辐射和地面气温的影响。北方区域平均气溶胶直接效应所造成的短波辐射强迫要高于南方区域,分别为-11.3 W m-2和-5.8 W m-2,导致地面气温分别降低了0.074 K和0.039 K。南方区域平均气溶胶间接效应所产的短波辐射强迫高于北方区域,分别为-14.4 W m-2和-12.4 W m-2,引起的地面气温的改变分别为-0.094 K和-0.035 K。对于气溶胶组分,硫酸盐气溶胶的直接效应和间接效应的作用相当,其总效应在北方和南方区域平均短波辐射强迫分别为-7.0 W m-2和-10.5 W m-2,对地面气温的影响为-0.062 K和-0.074 K,而硝酸盐气溶胶的作用略小。黑碳气溶胶使得北方和南方区域平均到达地表的太阳短波辐射分别减少了6.5 W m-2和5.8 W m-2,而地表气温则分别增加了0.053 K和0.017 K,相比于间接效应,黑碳气溶胶的直接效应的影响更加显著。 相似文献
The kinematics of satellite galaxies reflect the masses of the extended dark matter haloes in which they orbit, and thus shed light on the mass–luminosity relation (MLR) of their corresponding central galaxies. In this paper, we select a large sample of centrals and satellites from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and measure the kinematics (velocity dispersions) of the satellite galaxies as a function of the r -band luminosity of the central galaxies. Using the analytical framework presented in More, van den Bosch & Cacciato, we use these data to infer both the mean and the scatter of the MLR of central galaxies, carefully taking account of selection effects and biases introduced by the stacking procedure. As expected, brighter centrals on average reside in more massive haloes. In addition, we find that the scatter in halo masses for centrals of a given luminosity, σlog M , also increases with increasing luminosity. As we demonstrate, this is consistent with σlog L , which reflects the scatter in the conditional probability function P ( L c| M ) , being independent of halo mass. Our analysis of the satellite kinematics yields σlog L = 0.16 ± 0.04 , in excellent agreement with constraints from clustering and group catalogues, and with predictions from a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation. We thus conclude that the amount of stochasticity in galaxy formation, which is characterized by σlog L , is well constrained, independent of halo mass and in a good agreement with current models of galaxy formation. 相似文献