渔民对伏季休渔政策的满意度研究——基于黄、渤海渔村问卷调查的分析

我国伏季休渔期政策自实施以来,其休渔范围、时间和类型不断扩大和完善,政策的落地和执行对我国渔业资源可持续发展做出了重要贡献。渔民作为休渔期政策实施的核心载体,他们对休渔期政策的满意度是我国持续推行伏季休渔政策的关键。文章以辽宁省大连市541位渔民的调研数据为基础,运用logistic模型对伏季休渔政策满意度进行了研究,结果表明：(1)渔民对伏季休渔政策总体满意度比较高,77.4%的渔民持有满意态度;(2)健康状况不佳的渔民对伏季休渔政策满意度较低;(3)渔业收入占比高的渔民对伏季休渔政策满意度较低;(4)对政府部门工作的满意度与伏季休渔政策满意度呈明显正相关关系。基于上述研究结果,对伏季休渔制度提出相应的政策建议。     

基于小震定位与震源机制解信息的阿尔金断裂带东段构造转换研究

阿尔金断裂带东段地区的造转换及其动力学机制研究一直是地学工作者关注的焦点.本文利用双差定位法获取研究区域2008—2017年间6013次地震事件的精确定位数据;整理筛选前人震源机制解36个,并采用P/S波振幅比方法计算获得221个以及CAP方法获得25个震源机制解信息.选择野马河—大雪山断裂作为研究区构造转换研究的突破口,综合小震定位数据与震源机制解信息,并开展野外地质调查进行验证,清晰刻画出该断裂的深部构造形态以及现今的运动特征：由阿尔金断裂带向祁连山方向过渡,断层产状由近直立逐渐转变为倾向南,倾角变缓,震源机制解由走滑性质为主转变为逆冲性质为主,是一个连续渐变的过程,为研究区的构造转换研究提供了直接证据.     

Feasibility of signal enhancement with multiple grounded‐wire sources for a frequency‐domain electromagnetic survey

Frequency‐domain electromagnetic methods with a grounded‐wire source are powerful tools in geophysical exploration. However, the signal may be too weak to guarantee the quality of survey data in complex electromagnetic environments, especially when the receiver is located in the air for the newly developed grounded‐source airborne frequency‐domain electromagnetic method. In this paper, a signal enhancement method with multiple sources is proposed to solve this problem. To evaluate the signal enhancement effect, we compared the signals generated by a single source and multiple sources with equal electric moment. The signal differences caused by synchronisation error and separation distance between source elements were analysed, and the methods to achieve maximum signal were introduced. Besides, we discussed the interaction between adjacent source elements to ensure the system safety, including the changes in output current and the safe distance between two sources using a dual‐source model. Lastly, a comprehensive field experiment was designed and conducted to test the multiple‐source method. The data processing results are comparable for single and dual sources, and the signal‐to‐noise ratio of dual source is higher in the field test. The subsurface resistivity structure at the test site is consistent with the previous controlled‐source audio‐frequency magnetotellurics method. These results show that signal enhancement with multiple sources is feasible. This study provides guidance to the application of multiple sources in field surveys when the survey environment is complex and rigorous.     

Experimental study of aeolian sand ripples in a wind tunnel

The topographic parameters and propagation velocity of aeolian sand ripples reflect complex erosion, transport, and deposition processes of sand on the land surface. In this study, three Nikon cameras located in the windward (0–1 m), middle (4.5–5.5 m), and downwind (9–10 m) zones of a 10 m long sand bed are used to continuously record changes in sand ripples. Based on the data extracted from these images, this study reaches the following conclusions. (1) The initial formation and full development times of sand ripples over a flatbed decrease with wind velocity. (2) The wavelengths of full development sand ripples are approximately twice the wavelengths of initially formed sand ripples. Both wavelengths increase linearly with friction velocity. During the developing stage of sand ripples, the wavelength increases linearly with time. (3) The propagation velocity of full development sand ripples is approximately 0.6 times that of the initially formed sand ripples. The propagation velocity of both initial and full development of sand ripples increase as power functions with respect to friction velocity. During the developing stage of sand ripples, the propagation velocity decreases with time following a power law. These results provide new information for understanding the formation and evolution of aeolian sand ripples and help improve numerical simulations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a predictive model for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence in hospitals using Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafer theory

Clostridium difficile infection is one of the major patient safety concerns in hospitals worldwide. Clostridium difficile infection can have high economic burden to patients, hospitals, and government. Limited work has been done in the area of predictive modeling. In this article, A new predictive model based on Gaussian mixture model and Dempster–Shafter theory is proposed to predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence in hospitals. First, the Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithms are used to generate explicit probability criteria of risk factors based on the given data. Second, Dempster–Shafter theory is used to predict the Clostridium difficile infection incidence based on the generated probability criteria that have different beliefs attributing to their different credits. The main procedure includes (1) generate the probability criteria model using Gaussian mixture model and expectation–maximization algorithm; (2) determine the credit of the probability criteria; (3) generate the basic probability assignment; (4) discount the evidences; (5) aggregate the evidences using Dempster combining rule; (6) predict Clostridium difficile infection incidence using pignistic probability transformation. Results show that the model has a higher accuracy than an existing model. The proposed model can generate the criteria ratings of risk factors automatically, which would potentially prevent the imprecision caused by the subjective judgement of experts. The proposed model can assist risk managers and hospital administrators in the prediction and control of Clostridium difficile infection incidence with optimizing their resources.     

Decision-making for ecological landslide prevention in tropical rainforests

Natural Hazards - Landslide disasters in tropical rainforests are becoming increasingly severe. It is a tough task to prevent and control landslide effectively in the tropical rainforests....     

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Belt and Road Regions

“Belt and Road” regions include Asia, Europe and eastern and northern Africa, with a wide spatial distribution. The cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes in the Belt and Road regions with global warming, and has an important impact on water resources, ecosystems and Arctic waterways in these regions. This article reviewed recent cryospheric changes and associated impacts on water resources in the Belt and Road regions during the last decades. The main cognitions are as follows: \mathrm{①} Most glaciers are shrinking and glacier mass balances are most negative, but there are regional differences in the changes of glaciers. \mathrm{②} Global temperature rise has resulted in permafrost degradation, including a rise in permafrost temperature and decreasing permafrost thickness as well as an increase in active layer thickness. \mathrm{③} There is a significant decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snow depth. Snow cover duration has shortened, the onset of snow cover has delayed, and the end of snow cover has advanced. However, there are still obvious regional differences in the changes of snow cover. \mathrm{④} Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness in summer, and multi-year sea ice has decreased,indicating the precipitous retreat of sea ice. The freeze-up date of some lakes has been delayed, the break-up date has advanced, and the ice cover duration of river/lake ice has significantly shortened. \mathrm{⑤} Glacial runoff has increased significantly in China. Snowmelt and permafrost degradation have also increased the basin runoff, which indicates the important impact of cryospheric changes on runoff. This study will provide a baseline and important scientific support for addressing climate change and regional sustainable development.     

广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及潜力评价

为了对广西合浦盆地干热岩资源成热条件及其潜力进行评价,利用广西航磁勘查数据,采用Parker-Oldenburg法反演计算了居里面深度。在此基础上进行大地热流密度值和不同埋深地温计算,发现计算结果与现有测温资料吻合,合浦盆地内西场凹陷和常乐凹陷具有干热岩资源成生条件。结合合浦盆地内基础地质调查资料和油气钻孔资料,分析了合浦盆地干热岩资源的储层和盖层条件。初步圈出2个位于西场凹陷和常乐凹陷的干热岩勘查靶区C1和C2,面积分别为167.10和72.90 km²,干热岩资源量分别为182.48×10¹⁵、77.59×10¹⁵ J。按20%的采收率,合浦盆地干热岩资源量可开采量为52.01×10¹⁵ J,折合标准煤177.48×10⁴ t,占2018年广西全区能源生产总量3 756.69×10⁴ t标准煤的4.72%。在资源量评价基础上,可优先考虑位于合浦盆地西场凹陷的C1靶区开展进一步的勘探工作。     

Effect of urbanization on runoff characteristics of the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan,Korea

This study investigated the effect of urbanization on runoff from the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan, Korea. This watershed has been experiencing considerable urbanization since the 1960s. There are two gauging stations in the watershed. For one of the stations there are recent flow data and for the other flow data were observed in the past. A linear reservoir model was chosen and runoff was analysed for several flood events. The linear reservoir model has been found to generate flood hydrographs accurately for both gauging stations, and its applicability to the study area has also been established. Using two methods of computing effective rainfall or rainfall excess (ϕ-index and constant percentage method), the results of runoff analyses were investigated. The ϕ-index method yielded better results than the constant percentage method. A comparison of hydrographs observed in the past with the simulation results at the Ie-Sup bridge site revealed that the peak discharge increased and the mean lag time of the study area decreased owing to urbanization over the past two decades. It is also possible to evaluate the effect of urbanization quantitatively. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A novel method for evaluating proneness of gas outburst based on gas-geological complexity

The gas outburst, resulting in substantial economic losses and even casualties, is the biggest obstacle in coal mines, mostly caused by an imbalance of gas-geological structure. For accurately measuring this proneness, in this paper, a novel evaluation method was proposed based on the gas-geology theory. In this method, a standardization model of statistical units was presented first, which was used to standardize and quantify the 12 chosen gas-geological factors; and then, an associated function was established for computing the gas-geological complexity index (GCI). With increasing GCI values, the evaluated area was divided into four grades: simple, medium, complex, and extremely complex region, in which the associated proneness of outbursts was SAFE, POTENTIAL, HIGH, STRONG, respectively. Taking the XueHu Coal Mine as an example, site verification was carried out with a good result. Research and application indicate that (1) gas outburst is unbalanced and closely related to the complex of the gas geological structure, showing a greater GCI leads to a higher outburst possibility; (2) the most likely area for the gas outburst is the extremely complex region and the transition zone between adjacent areas with different GCI grades; (3) upgrading-targeted control measures are the best way for preventing and controlling disasters caused by the gas and outburst unbalanced distribution. This novel method provided a reliable quantity approach for predicting and zonally managing gas outbursts and improving the effectiveness of outbursts prevention.